Western Weather 2014-15

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Marc_C

Marc_C

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Utah Avalanche Center forecast for the 2014/2015 season:
Our official forecast: It's going to snow for a bit and then be sunny for a while, followed by intermittent snow and clearing with a rain event or 2 and some high pressure and more snow followed by sun. There is a high likelihood that the avalanche danger will go up and down. May will come and there will be a big base, sunny skies, and the mountains will be empty. Chance of precipitation for the winter is 100%.
 
The I70 areas got some snow Monday night (4-7") and then a band of snow set up right on top of I70 (=/- ~75 miles N and S) for most of today with some very decent snow totals (a couple inches made the am reports, but then kept on snowing all day). Add in the the storms that are in the Utah report link above that are headed this way too over the next couple of days for another 6-12" by Sunday morning and suddenly the dry and warm fall has become full on Winter for the central part of CO in a matter of a week. Very un-predicted and unexpected. Today's event even caught Joel by surprise.

Look for lots of marketing hype from VR as they open up Breck, etc.. and some nice 72 hr snow totals on the morning reports. Hard to say if by Sunday enough base will be there for any natural snow trail openings (barring the 6" of "early Season Obstacles" at Wolf Creek), but at least that might be in the discussion by then.
 
Current Forecast is 4-8" in the next 24 hours for most of Colorado. Then another storm Saturday night.

Here are the 3 day totals from the last two storms. Falling on bare ground on the flats and S faces, but falling on a couple of previous inches in N/shaded areas.
storm.JPG
 
Somewhere between high end and over-delivery for central CO. I can't seem to find any # for the rest of the sate yet as no ski areas are open daily in other parts of Colo. Next up is the final wave or so for the week with another 2-4 and then 3-6 Sat night. Hoping for more over-delivery, but can't really expect that in Colo with every storm. Forecasters just as often get it wrong in the other direction in these parts.

Today's snow totals.
storm2.JPG
 
Some additional nice snowfalls the past two days. I think most places are somewhere between 3 and 4 feet for the week. Even a few 'directed skiing' opportunities here and there for an hour or two on natural snow terrain. You might get pow, or you might get a core shot kind of stuff. Still not bad at all considering the weather 7 days ago (shorts and t shirts in Denver exactly 1 week ago).

storm2.JPG
 
We're now at 18-24 new here in LCC, around a foot in BCC, 7-14 in the Ogden mountains and around 6" in the Provo area mountains. And 16°F when I got up at the house this morning at 4900'. I recorded an overnight low of 14.2°F.
 
http://fox13now.com/2014/11/16/utah-sci ... on-earth/#":123jqu0v said:
But Steenburgh said the future isn’t as bright for Utah’s snow.

“It’s going to be warming over the next century,” he said. “I hate to say that. And it’s going to have an impact for sure on low elevation snowpack in the state of Utah. The upper elevations depend a lot on how fast the warming hits, but warming is going to be coming to the state of Utah in the next hundred years.”
Click to expand...

I engaged Jim on this issue following his very interesting analysis of Utah's February 2014 weather, which was 8F above average and melted out a lot of low elevation snow, but was just another snowy winter month in the Cottonwood Canyons.
http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... uture.html
 
Evan and the OpenSnow guys do a nice job IMHO. They give you a heads-up several days out without overhyping. Theygradually start mentioning specific numbers for projected snowfall only when there's more confidence.

I think you'll still be skiing a handful of groomers in Utah this weekend due to snow stability considerations from the incoming storm. But Thanksgiving could be tasty if Evan's forecast pans out!
 
Tony Crocker":1q9jv51g said:
I think you'll still be skiing a handful of groomers in Utah this weekend due to snow stability considerations from the incoming storm.
Click to expand...

Alta is typically very generous in opening terrain early season. I suspect that you're right for Saturday but I would be surprised if ropes don't start falling on Sunday.
 
Winter Storm Watch now posted for the Wasatch by the National Weather Service:

NWS":16a4wtnc said:
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...WINTER WEATHER EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN UTAH THIS WEEKEND...

.A POTENT EARLY SEASON WINTER STORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN UTAH
BEGINNING SATURDAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN
UTAH...WITH SNOW LEVELS FALLING TO THE VALLEY FLOORS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH SATURDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE AREA. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN UTAH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

UTZ007>009-202300-
/O.NEW.KSLC.WS.A.0004.141122T1200Z-141125T1100Z/
WASATCH MOUNTAINS I-80 NORTH-WASATCH MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-80-
WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WOODRUFF...RANDOLPH...ALTA...BRIGHTON...
MIRROR LAKE HIGHWAY
340 AM MST THU NOV 20 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SALT LAKE CITY HAS ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS OF
NORTHERN UTAH

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION RANGING FROM 1 TO
3 FEET...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE UPPER
COTTONWOODS.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY MORNING...THEN BECOME HEAVY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD
FRONT. A MOIST AND UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL MAINTAIN PERIODS
OF HEAVY SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF.

* SNOW LEVELS...IN THE 7000 TO 8000 FOOT RANGE DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY FALLING BELOW 5000 FEET SATURDAY EVENING.

* WINDS...PERIODS OF STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS...GUSTING IN
EXCESS OF 50 MPH ALONG EXPOSED RIDGELINES...ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE
BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF NEW SNOW.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS WINTER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WASATCH AND WESTERN UINTAS THIS WEEKEND. THOSE WITH TRAVEL OR
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD BE PREPARED AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE LATEST FORECASTS.
Click to expand...
 
Wow, 4 more days of snow in a row with some big totals. I think only Alta and Snowbird In Utah had higher over the past 4 days.

storm3.JPG


We have a warm, dry slot for Turkey Day and weekend though. A LOT of terrain should be opening up in the next few days I would guess though.
 
EMSC":zbqmxe4k said:
A LOT of terrain should be opening up in the next few days I would guess though.
Click to expand...
That would be my guess too, and for AltaBird as well. Several of the Colorado areas are still slightly ahead of Alta/Bird on season totals.
http://50.87.144.177/~bestsnow/seas15.htm

The raw snowfall numbers for both UT and CO are better than they look because most of it has come in the past 2 weeks in CO and one week in UT.
 
The Thanksgiving open terrain in Front Range Colorado is above average but not by a lot for most places. Vail and Breck are the only ones above 75th percentile going back to 1988. Winter Park is the only one below 50th percentile, weird because its reported snowfall is in line with the other places.

But overall it's certainly good because most reported base depths are in the 3-foot range and the Thanksgiving average is a bit under 2 feet.

Standardized reporting of open acreage/trails tends to be timely and reliable in Colorado. I'm not sure I buy "25 out of 116 trails open" at Alta. I'm sure admin will have something to say about that tomorrow.
 
Tony, I think you may have checked a day or two too early. Many Colo resorts opened hundreds or even 1000 more acres on Saturday (Vail opened China Bowl). Timing of the storms meant lots of work to get more terrain actually opened up.
 
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