Economy and NE Ski Industry Outlook for 09/10
- Thread starter Bluebird Day
- Start date
Geoff
New member
Harvey44":2vd7uw8m said:
No. If somebody is willing to pay seven figures to do fairly routine middle man financial transactions, I can't fault anyone for applying for the job. For the most part, the work is routine and hardly requires the best and the brightest.
I'm saying that access to the capital markets in the US is full of middle men who take a very big slice for very little value-add. There's no risk being a middle man unless you happen to be involved in one of those Ponzi schemes like hedge funds for sub-prime mortgages and you're stuck with some of it when it all collapses. Eventually, it will mostly go the way of stock trading. Automated, cheap.
Bluebird Day
New member
To put things into persective.... I skied with a two kids (20's) in Jackson Hole about 5 years ago who could rip on anything in-bounds or off-piste like it was second nature. One of the kids had a beat-up knit hat, ski pants (I think) covered with duct tape, an old pair of wayfarer sun glasses, and both toes of his boots taped up to stop leaks. He was on an old pair of Dynastar 4X4's. The second one was on his teles. These kids knew nothing about CDOs, Swaps, Forward Contracts or NYC real estate prices... but I watched them (one is my wife's cousin) drop off the top of Corbetts and get to bottom in 4 or 5 turns. I took "exit stage left" and met them on the bottom. Thanks god for ski bums!! It keeps guys like me and my ego in check.
We've discussed this subject fairly thoroughly here:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7992&p=45358&hilit=kottke#p45358
My summary from that thread:
Geoff's comments earlier in this thread support the same thesis: skiers will continue to ski but figure out how to do it more cheaply. I agree with Harvey44 that economic impact of 2009-10 vs. 2008-09 would be less than 2008-09 vs. 2007-08. And that NE skiing is demonstrably less sensitive to the economy than fly-in destination resorts.
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=7992&p=45358&hilit=kottke#p45358
My summary from that thread:
Geoff's comments earlier in this thread support the same thesis: skiers will continue to ski but figure out how to do it more cheaply. I agree with Harvey44 that economic impact of 2009-10 vs. 2008-09 would be less than 2008-09 vs. 2007-08. And that NE skiing is demonstrably less sensitive to the economy than fly-in destination resorts.
J.Spin
New member
It looks like Bolton Valley will be running the Timberline Quad more frequently for the upcoming season based on a blurb in their most recent email newsletter from Friday:
Timberline Will Operate 7 Days Per Week
The big news for this week is the announcement that the Timberline quad will run seven days per week. It went something like this: "We are going to run Timberline seven days per week next year." said George B. Potter. Simple and to the point, but very exciting none the less. The lodge will be open too so you can start your day there. In addition to making people happy it will extend my lunch break as I make it all the way over to Timberline to get the precious photo of the day. And, more skiing for me generally equals more skiing for you.
I’m not sure what part economics played in this decision, but it certainly doesn’t seem like the kind of move the resort would make if there was a lot of trouble on the financial front. I don’t know what Bolton’s visitor numbers/financials were for last season, but if they were decent, it may have been a function of the phenomenon discussed in this thread, where people are doing more local skiing since they don’t want the expense of a big trip.
In the full news release on their website, they mention that Timberline has generally been open only on weekends and holidays in the past, although I’d argue that at least for last season, the opening schedule actually seemed to be somewhere between “weekends/holidays only” and “every day”. There were times when they would open it for the midweek, or part of the midweek when it didn’t necessarily seem like a major holiday. Perhaps some of these occasions were school break, or President’s Week, but it felt like they had some other random periods as well. The resort may also have chosen to open the area when conditions were especially good.
The upside of the more consistent services at Timberline is that there will be better access to the facilities at the Timberline Lodge, and more lift-served skiing in that area for midweek vacationers. The downside however is that for folks earning turns there and/or spotting a car for sidecountry runs, Timberline will probably lose some midweek exclusivity during the heart of the season. Also, the powder isn’t likely to sit there untouched for as many days if it’s easily accessed by lift service.
On a related note, I believe the recent Timberline news release is the second time now that I’ve seen Bolton report the new number of 312 inches for their annual snowfall. I assume that either the 300-inch average they’d been reporting previously was somewhat round and they’ve tightened it up, or they have recently updated their snowfall average by incorporating some new numbers from the past several seasons. The numbers I’ve seen for the past three seasons are 318” for 2008-2009, 303” for 2006-2007, and I couldn’t find it written down anywhere, but I’m thinking something in the range of 330”? for 2007-2008. I hadn’t really been following their snowfall before we returned to Vermont, so those are the only seasons that I can recall, but the mean of those three seasons is above 312” so they may have brought the average up. As far as the 330” recollection goes for Bolton’s 2007-2008 season, Tony has an elevation-averaged number of 379” for Jay Peak (I think it was a 400”+ season at the resort's summit area) which puts Jay’s snowfall at 113%. So Bolton running at around 330” would make sense. In terms of estimating Bolton’s snowfall from the other Northern Vermont resorts though, there is one potential complication. Bolton Valley generally runs the lifts only from December through the first week of April, and I think their season totals might include early season snow (probably November, possibly October), but they never seem to include any of April’s snowfall after they stop running the lifts. It looks like Jay Peak only had 11 inches of snow in April 2008, so using Jay’s 2007-2008 percent of average snowfall should allow for a reasonable estimate at Bolton. Sometimes there can be several feet of snow after Bolton’s closing though, like the 2006-2007 post season. With Tony’s numbers indicating 76 inches of snow for Jay Peak that April, that really made for quite a difference in snowfall Between Bolton Valley (303”) and Jay Peak (where it was another 400”+ season at the summit). Even though they didn’t get counted as part of the season's snowfall total, those several feet of snow did make for some great post-season earned turns at Bolton that April!
-J
Timberline Will Operate 7 Days Per Week
The big news for this week is the announcement that the Timberline quad will run seven days per week. It went something like this: "We are going to run Timberline seven days per week next year." said George B. Potter. Simple and to the point, but very exciting none the less. The lodge will be open too so you can start your day there. In addition to making people happy it will extend my lunch break as I make it all the way over to Timberline to get the precious photo of the day. And, more skiing for me generally equals more skiing for you.
I’m not sure what part economics played in this decision, but it certainly doesn’t seem like the kind of move the resort would make if there was a lot of trouble on the financial front. I don’t know what Bolton’s visitor numbers/financials were for last season, but if they were decent, it may have been a function of the phenomenon discussed in this thread, where people are doing more local skiing since they don’t want the expense of a big trip.
In the full news release on their website, they mention that Timberline has generally been open only on weekends and holidays in the past, although I’d argue that at least for last season, the opening schedule actually seemed to be somewhere between “weekends/holidays only” and “every day”. There were times when they would open it for the midweek, or part of the midweek when it didn’t necessarily seem like a major holiday. Perhaps some of these occasions were school break, or President’s Week, but it felt like they had some other random periods as well. The resort may also have chosen to open the area when conditions were especially good.
The upside of the more consistent services at Timberline is that there will be better access to the facilities at the Timberline Lodge, and more lift-served skiing in that area for midweek vacationers. The downside however is that for folks earning turns there and/or spotting a car for sidecountry runs, Timberline will probably lose some midweek exclusivity during the heart of the season. Also, the powder isn’t likely to sit there untouched for as many days if it’s easily accessed by lift service.
On a related note, I believe the recent Timberline news release is the second time now that I’ve seen Bolton report the new number of 312 inches for their annual snowfall. I assume that either the 300-inch average they’d been reporting previously was somewhat round and they’ve tightened it up, or they have recently updated their snowfall average by incorporating some new numbers from the past several seasons. The numbers I’ve seen for the past three seasons are 318” for 2008-2009, 303” for 2006-2007, and I couldn’t find it written down anywhere, but I’m thinking something in the range of 330”? for 2007-2008. I hadn’t really been following their snowfall before we returned to Vermont, so those are the only seasons that I can recall, but the mean of those three seasons is above 312” so they may have brought the average up. As far as the 330” recollection goes for Bolton’s 2007-2008 season, Tony has an elevation-averaged number of 379” for Jay Peak (I think it was a 400”+ season at the resort's summit area) which puts Jay’s snowfall at 113%. So Bolton running at around 330” would make sense. In terms of estimating Bolton’s snowfall from the other Northern Vermont resorts though, there is one potential complication. Bolton Valley generally runs the lifts only from December through the first week of April, and I think their season totals might include early season snow (probably November, possibly October), but they never seem to include any of April’s snowfall after they stop running the lifts. It looks like Jay Peak only had 11 inches of snow in April 2008, so using Jay’s 2007-2008 percent of average snowfall should allow for a reasonable estimate at Bolton. Sometimes there can be several feet of snow after Bolton’s closing though, like the 2006-2007 post season. With Tony’s numbers indicating 76 inches of snow for Jay Peak that April, that really made for quite a difference in snowfall Between Bolton Valley (303”) and Jay Peak (where it was another 400”+ season at the summit). Even though they didn’t get counted as part of the season's snowfall total, those several feet of snow did make for some great post-season earned turns at Bolton that April!
-J
icelanticskier
New member
and isn't it funny that folks forget how incredible the 2006/2007 season was which puts us at 3 great seasons in a row now and that this season could make 4 in a row. sugarloaf had 108 inches of snow in april 2007 and were open for all of it. i'm so glad that i got to reap the rewards of the loaf in all of her above treeline snowcapped glory that late april. she skis big.
lookin forward to another.
rog
lookin forward to another.
rog
That would be 2 1/2 seasons. NE 2006-07 before February was pretty horrible by anybody's standards. I do realize that powdercentric people on this board would prefer 1/2 season of awful + 1/2 season of epic (a concise description of 2006-07) to a whole season of average/OK (2008-09 was not too far off from that). Riverc0il once expressed that preference IIRC.
icelanticskier
New member
Tony Crocker":1tsbcvd6 said:
you are very wrong with the "before feb" being pretty horrible. i skied saddleback on mlk in winter wonderland powder conditions after a foot fell and then jan 19-21 at stowe which received 18" over the 3 days on a base that was good enough to go anywhere off piste. burke had another 10 inches that midweek just a few days after i was at stowe and i was there for that as well. i was off work from jan 19th till march 5th and hit 13 feet of storms during that time in the east. i skied 42 out of 46 days on the road. so, those standards were from folks that just aren't creative with their ski options. that mlk pow day at saddleback was hot rain in northern vt btw.
rog
J.Spin
New member
Really? As a somewhat powder-centric skier, I find this very interesting and would be curious to hear people's reasoning. I would absolutely take the average season of skiing powder over throwing away half the season. Why would anyone take 3 months of powder skiing over 6 months of powder skiing? I guess I can think of a couple of specific examples where opting for the awful/epic setup might be reasonable, such as someone skiing exclusively at an area in like Sun Valley or Lake Louise that are generally lean on snowfall. The only way one might get any notable powder days would be to pack all the snowfall into half the season. Also, if you aren't a season-long regular at a ski area, but are instead just there for a week, you might care less how crappy the rest of the season was, as long as your week had good snow. But for the most part if you ski at a ski area that gets decent snowfall, an average season provides great powder skiing (like 2008-2009 around here) and there doesn't seem to be a reason to toss half of it away.Tony Crocker":1d400pfy said:
-J
People who don't live less than an hour away from 300+ inches in an average year don't get that much powder during average seasons, unless they have icelantic-like flexibility. My observation was based specifically on Riverc0il's comments, where he actually expressed preference for 2006-07 over 2007-08. I think that's an outlier opinion, the comparison of 2006-07 vs. 2008-09 is the closer call. By my scoring system http://bestsnow.net/vrmthist.htm I have 2006-07 at 37, 2007-08 at 51 and 2008-09 at 39. I noticed I have not reloaded these files (except for SoCal) even though I maintained the spreadsheet in 2008-09.
Geoff
New member
Tony Crocker":1m7su8up said:
Jeez. I still don't get this "quality" thing. I've skied just about every weekend the mountain is open my entire adult life. For much of it, that was October until just shy of Memorial Day when I flip to my usual salt water-oriented summer stuff. I get my good days. I'm out there having a good time when it's not so good. Why agonise over it? Why do the OCD thing counting every inch of vertical, every run, every day, measuring the quality of every snow crystal? Just go skiing.
Marc_C":2h4bqk4v said:
I agree with what Geoff said 100%.
But I also see the other side. If the counting of vertical etc was some activity that was COMPLETELY unrelated to skiing...football, needlepoint, tiddlywinks...no one would say that it's not a legit way to enjoy themselves. (Marc basically says that himself in his second sentence.)
I get that with tele all the time. Why do you do THAT? Isn't it hard? I guess they are comparing it to alpine in their head. (I'll tell you this....it's easier than owning an ad agency.) My usual response is...if ease was the goal...I'd just stay on the chair and ride it back down. Or maybe just stay home and stay in bed.
Point is...are you having fun however you define it?
Of course, the rule is "have fun as long as no one gets hurt." :-"
I think the negative reactions to the number-crunching are due to the perception that it acts as a buzzkill to threads that are about sensory experiences (over-the-head blower pow!) and anecdotal descriptions (white room!), and brings in a scientific, secular element that most people go to the mountains to avoid.
I think the negative reactions to the number-crunching are due to the perception that it acts as a buzzkill to threads that are about sensory experiences (over-the-head blower pow!) and anecdotal descriptions (white room!), and brings in a scientific, secular element that most people go to the mountains to avoid.
Geoff
New member
jamesdeluxe":2ykm7c8l said:
I'm reacting more to the "Why would you ski when it isn't quality?" thing. It's like Tony is saying my wife or my girlfriend is ugly and crappy in bed. STFU already. I don't like skiing bullet-proof and death cookies more than anybody else but it sure beats sitting on the sofa. My friends are all out there suffering through the crappy days, too. There is more to skiing than sitting around waiting for that perfect day. I've skied all over the world. I know there are places with better conditions. I picked this one for a variety of reasons and the quality of the skiing surface is secondary to a whole lot of other things in my life.