Mammoth May 20-21, 2006

Tony Crocker

Administrator
Staff member
Mammoth had been subject the same heat wave mentioned in Utah and Colorado reports. No overnight freezing, and some off-trail areas that I would expect to see smooth corn are already in the suncup stage. Furthermore there had been thundershowers in late afternoon Friday. With a storm expected Sunday my expectations were fairly low, as dropping temperatures and Mammoth's high winds could result in quite unpleasant surfaces.

Saturday was a pleasant surprise. Temps dropped about 10 degress (highs in the 50's) vs. the past week, the top of the mountain firmed up a bit overnight, and the light breeze was enough to slow down the process of making the snow mushy. The 11-13 foot base still has a well refrigerated core, so the instabilities and abrupt collapses reported elsewhere aren't happening at Mammoth yet.

So after several salted cruisers on chairs 1,2 and 3 I headed up top about 10:30, starting with Dave's Run, which had a bit of blown-in snow at the top, and then coming down to a few runs on chair 5. In general the off-trail skiing was best where it had been skier-packed and particularly in the steep areas up top. Between noon and 2:30 closing of the top I skied Climax, Hangman's, MJB, Drop Out 2, Wipe Out 1&2 and the Hump. Paranoid's snow did not look that great, and it now takes some grunt work to get over there.

I skied 27,000 Saturday and was pretty beat, as the snow required some more effort than the best spring days, and the weather forecast for Sunday was not promising. The exception to the above was the area between Saddle Bowl and Chair 23 which had been cordoned off for race training in the morning. I hit the rope drop for the public at noon and it had the "Magic Carpet Ride" effortless corn that is the highlight of spring skiing. I arranged to pass through this area a couple more times on the way to 23.

Sunday was about the emptiest I've seen Mammoth on a weekend, which is not surprising as it was raining steadily at Main Lodge and Chair 2 at 9AM. I would probably not have shelled out $56 for a lift ticket but since I have a Value Pass why not go up and take a look? The rain turned to snow partway up Chair 2, and the snow level lowered to the base of 2 about an hour later. Nonetheless I got soaked and had to take a few breaks to add layers and even bought an end-of-season-sale new pair of gloves when mine were saturated by 11:30.

The new snow was obviously very dense (peanut butter would probably be a better description near Main Lodge and Chair 2), but that was probably desirable in terms of covering up the subsurface. The key was to find something of intermediate pitch, not too steep and previously groomed to have a smooth subsurface. Despite its sketchy visibility the area of yesterday's hero corn was probably best. I did venture once down the face of chair 5 and it was a bouncy ride, so I was very fortunate that there were very few people over there churning up the few inches of new Sierra Cement.

During the morning there was not much wind but it started to pick up after noon. By 1PM I was both soggy and starting to chill, so I bailed after a modest 11,700. The storm arrived earlier and more intense than predicted, so there might be some decent powder the next couple of days.

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Storm total was a foot at the top but only 3 inches at Mammoth's snow stake near the Main Lodge, which presumably had rain/snow mix.
 
I am impressed you went out on Sunday. Looks miserable.

I have not been up to Tahoe because there have been very few overnight freezes since it stopped snowing in mid-April. More like inversions that get the valleys near freezing, but not the high alpine.

I guess CA traded its corn season for prolonged dumps til Easter. Fair enough.

If the road ever opens through Yosemite, maybe I'll get to Mammoth. http://www.nps.gov/yose/trip/tioga.htm#dates
 
ChrisC":3o002wl5 said:
I have not been up to Tahoe because there have been very few overnight freezes since it stopped snowing in mid-April. More like inversions that get the valleys near freezing, but not the high alpine.

I guess CA traded its corn season for prolonged dumps til Easter. Fair enough.

Ditto here. Straight from powder to wallpaper paste.
 
I skied Mammoth on Thursday and Friday prior to Tony's arrival. Thursday was quite disappointing as my wife and I got a late-for-us 9:30 start. It was really soft and we quickly traded our skis in for snowboards for a little more floatation. Actually, things got better as the salters came out and the piste firmed up. The top remained very sticky and slow. But it was fun to charge into steep dropoffs that normally would have caused high pucker factor on decks!
I thought there'd be more snow after a record breaking winter. I'm a lifelong Mammoth rider and I've seen A LOT more snow at this date in past years. I think the relatively high snow levels this winter and the resulting skimpy lower elevation accumulations have influenced my observations.
We liked Friday as a breeze developed and the pack responded by staying firmer longer. The ski or machine packed areas were the ticket as off piste was slow and suncupped ala July. We rode as our oldest son and buddies warmed up for Saturday's "Peanut Butter and Rail Jam" snowboarding competition final. They'd qualified at Mt. Seymore BC, Brighton and Snoqualamie Pass respectively.
The reason I seem a little irratated is we had just come off a spectacular corn cycle at Mt Bachelor. In late April the storms stopped and it got warm fast. But then it cooled down with temps in the 20's in Bend overnight for weeks. Sorry I didn't post but it was as good as it gets!
Saturday morning Deb and I opted to ride the June Lake Loop on our road bikes but came back in time to watch the finals in the comp. I agree with Tony as Sat looked good with breezy and cooler temps. There was that shiny look you get on memorable corn days.
Mammoth Mountain remains one of the best places to ski on the planet. I think the ski area is more fun than ever even though a lot of great terrain has been bulldozed and homogenized (re: Dropout, Wipeout, Cornice Bowl, etc.). What's more disturbing is what has happened to town. But that will have to wait for another day.
 
On Mammoth's forum, someone posted that while this may have been a record-breaking season for snowfall, it's all the way down at No. 5 in water content. So maybe it's just been really warm for the past month or your memory's unreliable. :P

<<I think the relatively high snow levels this winter and the resulting skimpy lower elevation accumulations have influenced my observations.>>
 
The snow depths vary a lot by elevation and wind deposition. The high snow levels and mid-May heat wave have removed nearly all the snow from town. Upper Dry Creek in April clearly had more snow than anytime last season, though not as much as in 1983. The Hangman's/Varmint's Nest/MJB area this April had the most snow I've ever seen, and still have most for this time of year. I saw that 5th highest water content figure also, and it is measured at Mammoth Pass at 9,000 feet south of the ski area near Horseshoe Lake.

I was riding a chair in Sunday's rain with another Value Pass holder who was enthused with Saturday's best-ever-for-him May skiing. I told him I considered it "above average" but that I had often seen better. Mammoth and Bachelor long-time regulars are almost as spoiled for corn snow as admin and his SLC posse are for powder. I think Bachelor is better for corn even though Mammoth is better for terrain. May 3-4, 1990 and April 9-11, 2000 at Bachelor, plus April 6 at Mt. Bailey snowcat served up 20K+ per day of corn perfection.
 
SoCal Rider,
No offense taken on your comment on my unreliable memory...I was born in 1952 (number 9 on the H2O list) and have some gray hair. My local Mammoth sources indeed agreed that it's been quite hot for so early.
That being said it appears to me that this winter was actually number 6 on the list as 1978 had the same water content and more snow April 1 (see:http://64.29.226.243/dweeb.htm). I lived in Mammoth for almost 20 years starting in 1972 and I'll stand by my earlier observations.
I remember the 1982 winter (#10) blended right into 1983 (#1) due to a cool summer. The ski area closed July 28th that year. I was part of a commercial they filmed in October 1983 for the upcoming '84 Winter Olympics near Chair 3. You could easily ski from the top down saddle bowl and down St Anton quite a ways on piste left over from the previous seasons! There were still snow drifts in my yard in Old Mammoth on Evergreen St until July 4th of that season as well.
Another heavy was '95 with the area closing 8/13/95! That was the year they set a race course down into the parking lot off the snowbank near the Inn for a joke (April 1, 1995).
 
I was also born in 1952. 1978 was the first time I went to Mammoth, on April 1-2, and you can imagine how impressed/intimidated I was by all that snow! I didn't fault your memory at all. It's always been clear to me that 1983 and 1995 were noticeably above any other seasons in ski area snowpack, as evidenced by the July 28 and August 13 closing dates.

The warmer temperatures of recent seasons have a greater impact at lower elevation. You just don't see the amount of snow in town and especially out on Hwy 395 that was there in years like 1978 and 1983. The fishing opening weekend was also delayed in 1983.

That small area around Hangman's is the only place that I see more snow now than in 1995.
 
Schubwa,

You have incalculably more experience in Mammoth than I do, but obviously I was implying that it wasn't necessarily a winter of "mango powder," and admittably that comes from avidly following Mammoth-related sites, not so much personal experience. I do recall March delivering some pretty cold storms - personal obsv too - and the regs on the Mammoth board crowing about the consistent fluff.

BTW, I'm a bicentennial lad but the big 3-0 hasn't struck yet.
 
Tony,
I'm going to agree with you the the Hangman's-MJB-Kitchen Wall area at the top had to have record coverage for this time of the year. It appeared there is a ton of snow above 10K feet but a conspicuous lack of pack at lower elevations for such a heavy snow year, like the bare lower reaches of Mt. Wood in the June Lake Loop. I think SoCal Rider was also right that this year there were a lot of "inches" ala LCC in Utah that don't necessarily hang around as long. Remember those water content stats...
Since you also alluded to the rise in snow levels recently, do you have any ski area numbers that show any alarming trends? This has got to be skiing's greatest fear, a warming planet. Some scientists think there will be greater variability in the patterns and snowpacks rather than a general warming. Somewhere I read colder continental locations like the Montana Rockies might start getting deeper packs as the temps rise. Then there were the two back to back deep Sierra winters that came from two completely different sources, one an El Nino and the other a La Nina leaning neutral phase. Could this be an emerging pattern?
Lastly, I keep thinking that Grand Targhee, famous for it's consistant conditions, might be our "canary in a coalmine". What say you?
 
I've put in my 2 cents worth on this topic before, but to recap:

My snow data at 94 areas goes back in some cases to the late 1960's, and there is no trend of decreasing snowfall at any of them other than the Whistler base at 2,000 feet.

As I've mentioned in the global warming discussion I'm skeptical of these climate models. Getting an overall projection of world temperatures is difficult enough. Predicting the impact on some local climate, much less predicting variability I just don't buy. For example, current global warming impact is very dramatic in the Arctic but almost nonexistent in some regions, with most areas showing very modest effects within the range of natural variability.

So the only effect we can reliably tie to increased temperatures is a rise in the rain/snow line, thus the change at the Whistler base. I believe Snoqualmie Pass at 3,000 feet in Washington is similarly impacted, by comparing reports from there vs. the Washington areas with bases over 4,000 feet.

On the Pacific Coast the altitude that is historically safe from rain ranges from 5,000 in Canada to 6,000 in Oregon to 8,000 in the Sierra and 9,000 in SoCal. Subtract 3,000 from these numbers and climate has probably been affected already since 1970. Subtract 2,000 and we would expect some effect over the next 20-30 years if the warming trend continues.

In the Rockies the altitudes even at base elevations are way out of the rain zone (excluding some low elevation NW influenced areas like Schweitzer and Fernie). You've got it backwards with Targhee. It won't be a canary in a coal mine. It would be one of the last areas standing if warming accelerated dramatically. There's a lot of comment about Glacier National Park in Montana losing its glaciers. Those mountains aren't all that high vs. Sierra or Colorado, or even the other end of Montana (Big Sky, Beartooth range).

Global warming is a more serious issue in Europe where the resort towns are at very low elevations. Small resorts that are low could be in danger, and some with the big verticals will need to beef up download capacity. I see Australia as a problem region also as latitude is similar to the Sierra but the top elevations are barely over 6,000 feet.

The other issue is the shoulder seasons getting more rain and less snow. This should be the major effect in the East. Total winter snow isn't declining there yet.

Larry Schick, Seattle meteorologist, commented that the southern Sierra is showing an increased snowfall trend during the warming period due to higher water content combined with high enough altitude to keep the precipitation snow. I asked him why that same effect wouldn't happen in the Southwest. He replied that Sierra snow is more concentrated in midwinter, while a lot of Southwest snow hits in the shoulder seasons, and he expects global warming to decrease the intensity of those storms.

We really have to be patient and take a long term view with all the natural variability. Note that the Sierra set April snowfall records this year, and came close for March also, which is opposite of the hypothesized trends in the previous paragraph.
 
Thanks for your take on this complex subject. After my last post I read a article in the paper about how both jet streams have been pushed 70 or so miles towards the poles. It also called for lesser snowfalls in Europe and southern areas.
My idea on Targhee was that if they started showing some changes then we're really in trouble...
By the way, how do I get off this beginner run I'm on???
 
Tony Crocker":szap785i said:
Global warming is a more serious issue in Europe where the resort towns are at very low elevations.
(...)
The other issue is the shoulder seasons getting more rain and less snow. This should be the major effect in the East. Total winter snow isn't declining there yet.
This reply would fit better in the GW discussion, however there are two points that I'd like to comment on.

From experience, I found that more important resort in Europe (mostly France) have a relatively high elevation. It's true that I generally look at the Western Canada numbers. Off the top of my head, Val d'Isère is at 1850m, Tignes 2100m, Les Arcs 1600, 1800 and 2000m, Alpe d'Huez is at 1860m, Val Thorens 2300. 1meter = 33.3 feet

I think I mentioned this, models on effect of global warming (that were discussed as back to my university days in the mid-80s) would bring in a relative short-term basis greater snow cumultation (ie. snowstorm). Look at this year Eastern numbers. Cannon and Jay are close to average in snow cumulation, however I pretty sure that the total rain accumulation and thaw has been much greater than average. So if you only look at snow accumulation, you might not seen any clear evidence of what happened this winter in our part of the continent.

This is the first that I can recall that not one Quebec ski areas was opened for May skiing. Skiing in Quebec would generally make it to Victoria Day (3rd Monday in May) 20-25 years ago. I know that you can mentioned that ski areas are generally less willing to lost money in the end of the season and that one year weather doesn't say much for a trend, however for people that love winter like I do, I just look out my window and see that the climat is changing, the Canadian meteorologics says the data is confirming it. I heard that temps might be up to 30c in Ottawa this weekend, that is definitely not common, but it's happening more and more.
 
schubwa":19annfqm said:
By the way, how do I get off this beginner run I'm on???
You mean the green circle near your name?
Continue the go work by posting at it will change. :mrgreen: I believe that your halfway to the intermediate blue square. :wink:
 
Patrick":1tsjfr0i said:
schubwa":1tsjfr0i said:
By the way, how do I get off this beginner run I'm on???
You mean the green circle near your name?
Continue the go work by posting at it will change. :mrgreen: I believe that your halfway to the intermediate blue square. :wink:

Yep...50 posts earns a blue square, 100 for a black diamond.
 
I would guess the "safe" altitude in the Alps is about 6,000 ft. ~ 1,800 meters. So I agree that premier terrain at the French resorts is reliable for some time to come. But I would advise resort towns in the Alps below 5,000 feet ~1,500 meters to invest in download capacity. Brevent-Flegere had to download when I was there in mid-February 2004 as it also has bad exposure. Grand-Montets and Le Tour were skiable to the base but it was slop below 5,000 feet.

The disappearance of eastern May skiing is evidence of the shoulder season deterioration. Winter snowfall may not have changed much, but it's going to burn off faster. And were any of these May ski areas purely natural, other than Tucks and the Chic-Chocs? My impression was that it was mostly stockpiled snowmaking, which being denser actually might last longer than a similar depth of natural snow. But the warmer springs will take out any snowpack faster, as we are seeing at low elevations and sunny exposures at Mammoth.
 
Tony Crocker":1zby9ocu said:
I would guess the "safe" altitude in the Alps is about 6,000 ft. ~ 1,800 meters. So I agree that premier terrain at the French resorts is reliable for some time to come. But I would advise resort towns in the Alps below 5,000 feet ~1,500 meters to invest in download capacity. Brevent-Flegere had to download when I was there in mid-February 2004 as it also has bad exposure. Grand-Montets and Le Tour were skiable to the base but it was slop below 5,000 feet.

Yes, generally ski areas around Chamonix aren't seen as major ski areas. Although the base altitude (which is actually more like resort altitude there's often runs that go lower than the resort) is higher, from reading some French ski mags and from personnal experience, these aren't safe. Skiing in Europe at Christmas time is too often sketchy. The Alpine World Cup has had issue many times and that is one of the reasons why some late November/December events started taking place in North America instead of Europe.

Tony Crocker":1zby9ocu said:
And were any of these May ski areas purely natural, other than Tucks and the Chic-Chocs? My impression was that it was mostly stockpiled snowmaking, which being denser actually might last longer than a similar depth of natural snow.

Purely natural, not really, however artficial snow was generally used to ensure good coverage for American Thankgivings and the Holidays, not extending the season like Killington did with Superstar. Gray Rocks used to be the champion of early and late season skiing in Quebec, most runs would still be open in early May.

Gray Rocks isn't the snowiest place and highest mountain, but I remember skiing 2 runs on May 25th, 1985 (close on the 26th) and then ending to Killington (pre-Superstar days) on May 28-29th. Surprise to see how marginal the conditions were compared to Gray Rocks. Okay, the terrain was longer, but K also received more snow and the altitude is much greater. This was prior to the stockpilling days on Superstar.

K Pics from May 84 and 85 are included here:

http://216.250.243.13/discus2/messages/ ... 1054405710


I believe Kmart started to stockpilled the snow on Superstar in order to return to June skiing, which require less effort when the skiing was done off the K Peak.
 
Tony Crocker":2tpblrdf said:
There's a lot of comment about Glacier National Park in Montana losing its glaciers.
I think that a lot of the focus and comment about GNP's glaciers is simply because of the name of the park. Actually, people shouldn't be too surprised by the disappearance of these glaciers, as it's not really an indicator of dramatic climate change. Unlike some glaciers, the glaciers in GNP are all relatively small, and weren't even there a couple thousand years ago. GNP's glaciers are thought to have expanded during the cold period from the 14th to 19th centuries (the Little Ice Age) and on average, have been retreating ever since. Even without "dramatic" warming, they probably would have disappeared again in the not too distant future. It seems that watching the rate of their retreat has been useful for getting a sense of how fast climate is changing, but I don't think their ultimate disappearance is necessarily much of a harbinger of the fates of other (larger) glaciers. It might seem like a travesty to have no glaciers in the park, but the name "Glacier National Park" actually relates to the glacial topography of the region, not the glaciers themselves (which are cool to see, but really rather small as glaciers go).

J.Spin
 
Thanks for the 411 JSpin.
I've been hearing a lot about GNP, and that it is a strong indicator of Climate change. However, it's very interesting to hear about how the glaciers are VERY recently formed, and would likely have dissapeared under normal temp fluctuations anyways in the future.

Interesting....
 
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