Weather in the Northeast

I was reading through forecast discussion on the NWS website, to see if there was any cold air on the horizon for the northeast. WIthin the forecast discussion itself, the forecasters use a lot of slang and abbreviations that, to me anyway, aren't obvious. After a while you can get the idea even if you aren't total clear on what everthing means. (Until Scott explained it here last year, I didn't know what NAO meant, but I did know that a negative NAO was good!)

So -I'm no weather expert, but I didn't like what I read. A zonal flow and a fast moving west to east jet stream seem to end up in what we are seeing now....flooding in the Pacific Northwest and warm temps and rain in northeast with Lows passing to our north and west. It seems like when the Lows come across Texas, things are better for us in the east.

I know that Scott had a pretty good season last year as he's farther north in Vermont. Our season in the Adirondacks (Gore and the Siamese) was really a disappointment. I only skied 16 days and only one of those days was in the BC. It was a conscious choice to build our cabin there, as Northern VT is just too far from Princeton NJ where we live. We figured - what good is it if you can't get there easily?

The thing that really brought me down was the NWS quote - "the weather pattern for the foreseable future looks a lot like last January." Or something to that effect.

Scott - any hope for the period beyond the next 10 days?

M

http://www.easternuswx.com/bb/index.php ... pic=112458

There is a link to the general thinking of things. Despite it lacking in detail, from what I've seen, there will be spurts of cold through starting around thanksgiving, with the possibility of a storm the first week of dec. However, the North Atlantic Osscialtion (NAO) doesn't return to negative until nearing Christmas time... At least based on the thoughts of some of the mets at the board above... Scott will be able to explain this better than I, and in more detail/specifics. I would imagine the cold shot coming late next week would bring some snow/at least cold enough to make snow.

Porter

Salida you are pretty much on target.. It looks pretty bleak until after Thanksgiving.. Good chance everyone in the NE will have a poor Thanksgiving weekend

Holy crap!

I just went through this on another board.

Do you think we ought to stick guns in our mouths and pull the triggers?

I shouldn't suggest that, it might seem logical to alot of folks here.

We will be skiing soon. Can we please have some positive vibes?

Sincerely apologize to all that I have promised forecasts for in the last
week...been extremely busy and I think doing economic research at 11pm on
a Friday night might tell you something. Do not count on much in the way
of every-other-day forecasts until after Thanksgiving unless something
exciting happens...hard to find the time to analyze a bleak forecast.

Quick recap for BTV:
October finished -0.8F (good news, climatologically) compared to +2.4F
last October. We are at +2.0F so far in November...largely due to the
last couple days that have had departures of +10 to +15. Aside from that,
the first week was slightly below normal.

I'm biting my nails as I knew it was going to warm up (had Tues-Tues) but
get cold by midweek, enough so that ski resorts could get 72hrs of decent
snowmaking. Again, really biting the nails here but it does look like
another brief blowtorch possible during the middle of next week before we
cool things off next weekend and beyond. I don't really want to buy into
a long term cool down as the NAO appears to have gone against all models
and turned positive. Not sure on the exact value but high latitudes look
positive to me...while the Pacific is very favorable for a stormy period
across the nothern half of the western U.S.

From Here:
Variable is the name of the game; we are still at that time of the year
when the weather is notoriously fast-changing and variable from day to
day. This will mean some shots from the south and some from the north;
mother nature is sucker punching us this week from the south. Evidence
has been posted elsewhere that the end of the month and early Dec lean
towards more of the cold season storm variety (= snow) while it relaxes
through mid-Dec and then another shot comes in late Dec. This is posted
by the well known "HM" on EasternUSwx forums and he has been very good at
timing MJO and Kelvin waves across the globe...while showing how they
influence our weather. I still think we get some *good* surprises and
some trends have been noted that will be used in the coming weeks.

Don't jump ship just yet, you October-snow-means-poor-winter followers
No correlation to last year...but the Pacific Jet is roaring right now,
overwhelming any influence the Atlantic could have. Need to wait for a
clear-cut change there.

More soon, hopefully.
-Scott

Don't jump ship just yet, you October-snow-means-poor-winter followers

Click to expand...

Way to early to abandoned ship.. :wink: