powderfreak
New member
This morning we've got a clipper spreading snow through the central
Appalachians, from WV to NC. This thing dug really far south. Denis should
be happy. Up in our neighborhood, we've got a strong band of lake effect
snowfall absolutely destroying areas just east of Lake Erie (2 or 3"/hr
rates, total accums will be a couple to few feet) and spreading accumulating
snowfall into the Adirondacks. This band is also extending across the CPV
and into eastern Addison county, ATTM. Another band is in far northern NY
and far northern VT. This might be caused by moisture from Lake Huron aided
by lift into the northern 'Dacks and northern Greens. I can see this band
from my window in Burlington as the sky is extremely dark off the
north...but the clouds are finally taking on a winter-time appearance. They
are low topped and I've got black sky on the horizon under the band but
brilliant, blue sky above that. The clouds are smooth, a characteristic of
ice crystals up there. Upslope snowfall is noted on the radar as the
signature "blow up" of radar returns occurs from time to time across the
Green mountain spine. Any ground truth in the Green Mountains, anyone?
Further south in the southern Tier of NY, there's another area of lake
effect snowfall from ski country south of Buffalo to Binghamton. Areas in
banded snowfall right now should stay that way for the next several hours,
likely through sunset. The bands will then diminish in spatial coverage but
will strengthen in smaller regions. Tonight, the Syracuse to Utica looks to
get hit pretty hard. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect for these
areas for tonight for 10-16" of snowfall. This band could also migrate down
the Mohawk Valley into the Albany area and upslope regions east of Albany,
such as the RT2 corridor southward to I90 (most of the western
Berkshires)...a few inches look possible in squalls even that far east.
Tomorrow morning, a weak piece of energy drops southward through VT with
even colder air (approaching -20C at 4,500ft...possibly coldest aloft in the
past month), and I think snow squalls could spread southward through the
Champlain Valley, impacting the Burlington area and I-89 with squalls. Best
time frame for those in the north country would be 9am-2pm. Mostly likely
only a dusting in many areas with falling temps and gusty winds, but could
see a fluffy 3", especially at the ski resorts. You all know how these
events work...band on radar, sags south, winds pick up, it snows hard for a
short period of time, travel during that time gets sketchy, then it blows
across and rakes another region. Expect the usual winter-time squall line
event. Temps in the best snow growth region look prime for very fluffy,
dendrite flakes...but as the colder air comes in behind the front, snow will
shut off quickly to only flurries across the highest elevations. I'm going
to be at Killington tomorrow, but if I were home in Burlington, I'd be
watching this. Personally, the snow squall line sort of events are some of
the more exciting because, even if its only 15 minutes, the local
environment can take on the look of a major winter storm with high winds,
heavy snow, slowing traffic, etc. I'm surprised the NWS hasn't mentioned
this more in-depth...maybe its just something I'm seeing.
As I type this, I'm investigating it further and see the NAM has .04" liquid
at BTV between 10am-1pm tomorrow with wind gusts briefly to 20kts. Good
snow growth and surface temp of 24F at 1pm tomorrow could yield snow ratios
of 20-30:1...that .04 turns into 1" and its likely in a 30-60 minute time
frame. Models often underestimate these events but I've known what to look
for, and when they randomly spit out a few hundredths of precip with temps
in the low 20's with a cold frontal passage, its a telling sign. Usually,
this wouldn't excite me, but knowing a small event might take place tomorrow
that is only going to be snow...not snow/rain, not snow/sleet/freezing rain,
not freezing rain/rain...and the way the winter has gone, a quick 1-3"
snowfall now has just as much appeal as a 4-8" used to. My guess is that in
the afternoon package the NWS goes with a dusting-2" with would be prudent,
especially for populated regions outside of the CPV. Then handle the
Champlain Valley in the overnight forecast release.
Maybe we can make it look like November instead of October.
Following tomorrow, we get a quick cold shot, all the snowmaking guns are
turned on and then we wait for the weekend to sort itself out. Every NWS
office is correct with multiple days of mixed precipitation possible...one
of those situations where someone is gonna win, possibly big time, while
another area is marginal, someone else gets pure ice, and further south is
pure rain.
Details sorted out later.
-Scott
Appalachians, from WV to NC. This thing dug really far south. Denis should
be happy. Up in our neighborhood, we've got a strong band of lake effect
snowfall absolutely destroying areas just east of Lake Erie (2 or 3"/hr
rates, total accums will be a couple to few feet) and spreading accumulating
snowfall into the Adirondacks. This band is also extending across the CPV
and into eastern Addison county, ATTM. Another band is in far northern NY
and far northern VT. This might be caused by moisture from Lake Huron aided
by lift into the northern 'Dacks and northern Greens. I can see this band
from my window in Burlington as the sky is extremely dark off the
north...but the clouds are finally taking on a winter-time appearance. They
are low topped and I've got black sky on the horizon under the band but
brilliant, blue sky above that. The clouds are smooth, a characteristic of
ice crystals up there. Upslope snowfall is noted on the radar as the
signature "blow up" of radar returns occurs from time to time across the
Green mountain spine. Any ground truth in the Green Mountains, anyone?
Further south in the southern Tier of NY, there's another area of lake
effect snowfall from ski country south of Buffalo to Binghamton. Areas in
banded snowfall right now should stay that way for the next several hours,
likely through sunset. The bands will then diminish in spatial coverage but
will strengthen in smaller regions. Tonight, the Syracuse to Utica looks to
get hit pretty hard. Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect for these
areas for tonight for 10-16" of snowfall. This band could also migrate down
the Mohawk Valley into the Albany area and upslope regions east of Albany,
such as the RT2 corridor southward to I90 (most of the western
Berkshires)...a few inches look possible in squalls even that far east.
Tomorrow morning, a weak piece of energy drops southward through VT with
even colder air (approaching -20C at 4,500ft...possibly coldest aloft in the
past month), and I think snow squalls could spread southward through the
Champlain Valley, impacting the Burlington area and I-89 with squalls. Best
time frame for those in the north country would be 9am-2pm. Mostly likely
only a dusting in many areas with falling temps and gusty winds, but could
see a fluffy 3", especially at the ski resorts. You all know how these
events work...band on radar, sags south, winds pick up, it snows hard for a
short period of time, travel during that time gets sketchy, then it blows
across and rakes another region. Expect the usual winter-time squall line
event. Temps in the best snow growth region look prime for very fluffy,
dendrite flakes...but as the colder air comes in behind the front, snow will
shut off quickly to only flurries across the highest elevations. I'm going
to be at Killington tomorrow, but if I were home in Burlington, I'd be
watching this. Personally, the snow squall line sort of events are some of
the more exciting because, even if its only 15 minutes, the local
environment can take on the look of a major winter storm with high winds,
heavy snow, slowing traffic, etc. I'm surprised the NWS hasn't mentioned
this more in-depth...maybe its just something I'm seeing.
As I type this, I'm investigating it further and see the NAM has .04" liquid
at BTV between 10am-1pm tomorrow with wind gusts briefly to 20kts. Good
snow growth and surface temp of 24F at 1pm tomorrow could yield snow ratios
of 20-30:1...that .04 turns into 1" and its likely in a 30-60 minute time
frame. Models often underestimate these events but I've known what to look
for, and when they randomly spit out a few hundredths of precip with temps
in the low 20's with a cold frontal passage, its a telling sign. Usually,
this wouldn't excite me, but knowing a small event might take place tomorrow
that is only going to be snow...not snow/rain, not snow/sleet/freezing rain,
not freezing rain/rain...and the way the winter has gone, a quick 1-3"
snowfall now has just as much appeal as a 4-8" used to. My guess is that in
the afternoon package the NWS goes with a dusting-2" with would be prudent,
especially for populated regions outside of the CPV. Then handle the
Champlain Valley in the overnight forecast release.
Maybe we can make it look like November instead of October.
Following tomorrow, we get a quick cold shot, all the snowmaking guns are
turned on and then we wait for the weekend to sort itself out. Every NWS
office is correct with multiple days of mixed precipitation possible...one
of those situations where someone is gonna win, possibly big time, while
another area is marginal, someone else gets pure ice, and further south is
pure rain.
Details sorted out later.
-Scott
