powderfreak
New member
FIRST NOR'EASTER POSSIBLE...
12z GFS develops the first nor'easter of the season late on Thursday with New England primarily effected on Thursday night and into Friday. H85 temps fall to -3C across northern NY and northern VT supporting light to moderate accumulating elevation snow should this pan out (for this season, I'll continue using "light," "moderate," and "heavy" wording to signify 1-4", 4-8", and 8"+ ). It is not the only one showing east coast cyclogenesis as the 12z EURO had a very potent low even coming inland into New England. It is a warmer solution with snow further north and west of this area. Canadian model does not phase and keeps the low south and east of the area...but its still cold with H85 temps falling to -6C. However, the more easterly GFS shows critical thickness values do fall below the 540dm in the 'Dacks up through northern VT. I would feel comfortable forecasting accumulating elevation snows for upstate NY, VT, NH, ME, and maybe even the Berkshires per the 12z GFS solution for late this week.
The overall synoptics I'll be watching this week will include how the Great Lakes low evolves and if enough energy from the northern jet is able to phase with the southern jet off the eastern seaboard in the vicinity of SNE. What has me thinking this could actually pan out is research done by Heather Archambault which shows that when the NAO is in a transition period, large, synoptic scale precipitation events are more likely to occur. If any of you read my weather thoughts post, I stated the NAO and AO just switched from positive to negative and going along with her research, some sort of amplification along the east coast is more likely to occur.
I'm more excited about having something to track than anything else. Elevation snows would be nice, too. The overall range of solutions right now include nothing but cold and some mtn flurries to a heavy rainstorm to 7,000ft to an elevation dependent snowstorm.
Its getting to be that time of year again...yeee freakin' haw baby!
-Scott
12z GFS develops the first nor'easter of the season late on Thursday with New England primarily effected on Thursday night and into Friday. H85 temps fall to -3C across northern NY and northern VT supporting light to moderate accumulating elevation snow should this pan out (for this season, I'll continue using "light," "moderate," and "heavy" wording to signify 1-4", 4-8", and 8"+ ). It is not the only one showing east coast cyclogenesis as the 12z EURO had a very potent low even coming inland into New England. It is a warmer solution with snow further north and west of this area. Canadian model does not phase and keeps the low south and east of the area...but its still cold with H85 temps falling to -6C. However, the more easterly GFS shows critical thickness values do fall below the 540dm in the 'Dacks up through northern VT. I would feel comfortable forecasting accumulating elevation snows for upstate NY, VT, NH, ME, and maybe even the Berkshires per the 12z GFS solution for late this week.
The overall synoptics I'll be watching this week will include how the Great Lakes low evolves and if enough energy from the northern jet is able to phase with the southern jet off the eastern seaboard in the vicinity of SNE. What has me thinking this could actually pan out is research done by Heather Archambault which shows that when the NAO is in a transition period, large, synoptic scale precipitation events are more likely to occur. If any of you read my weather thoughts post, I stated the NAO and AO just switched from positive to negative and going along with her research, some sort of amplification along the east coast is more likely to occur.
I'm more excited about having something to track than anything else. Elevation snows would be nice, too. The overall range of solutions right now include nothing but cold and some mtn flurries to a heavy rainstorm to 7,000ft to an elevation dependent snowstorm.
Its getting to be that time of year again...yeee freakin' haw baby!
-Scott
