Editor’s Note: This is a weekly column written by Meteorologist Joel Gratz that will take you “behind the scenes” of the typical weather forecast. Joel is the founder of ColoradoPowderForecast.com, where you can sign up for his email alerts.
Boulder, CO – It’s all about the details. We can talk about big storms moving in and the position of the jet stream, moisture, and so on. But often, it’s all about the itsy bitsy details of each storm.nOn the morning of Thursday, March 17, a cold front enveloped the northwest corner of Colorado (see image below). Around this front, the computer weather models forecasted a ton of snow. Snow was favored in this area because of the colder air, plentiful moisture, and a jet stream that was close by. And in fact the models were right – it dumped about a foot of snow on Steamboat during the day.
Just 65 miles to the south of Steamboat is Vail. For the most part, the computer weather models predicted that the cold front would be stuck between Steamboat and Vail, and hence Steamboat would get dumped on while Vail got the shaft, at least in the beginning of the storm. And once again, this is exactly what happened. The cold front actually got to Vail on Thursday morning and helped focus some moisture into an inch of snow, but it quickly retreated back north around 11 a.m. and the skies in Vail cleared.
By the end of the storm, the cold front swept south through Vail and brought heavier snow while Steamboat saw the snow lighten.
All in all, the computer weather models did pretty well with this storm, and the weather once again showed how subtle details can control powder days. Sixty-five miles (a blimp in the scheme of weather) was the difference between deep snow on Thursday in Steamboat and deep snow on Friday in Vail. Details matter!