12z Models CRUSH the North Country on Friday...

P

powderfreak

New member
I am definitely getting a little over-excited but the models trended away
from the east coast storm and tracked it up the Saint Lawrence River
Valley for the past two days. Now a major shift in guidance, including
the 12z NAM (out to 84hrs), 12z GFS, and 9z SREF (average of 21 different
variations of the NAM). The models are looking too good, so something
will go wrong, but right now I'm going to drool and think about how much
we could use a 12"+ snowfall; even in the valley its been a while since
we've seen a decent snowstorm.

Can't talk much right now, but believe me there will be more on this
later. For now, those of you at work can drool over your keyboards for
the rest of the afternoon. GFS prints out .75-1.00" QPF as snow with an
extremely favorable temp profile from the surface up to the dendrite
growth level. This will make for some very interesting afternoon NWS
discussions from ALB, BUF, BGM, BTV, GYX, and BOS.

Friday 7pm...: 5,000ft temps well below 0C as a deepening surface low is
tucked in near NYC (near perfect track depicted for significant snowfall
in the interior, ie. ski country).
gfs_p06_084s.gif


Zoomed in view of the surface low pressure, surface wind, and surface
temperatures (sub 32F).
gfs_ten_084l.gif


Saturday 1am...: Good freakin' night. See that small area of .75"+ in the
vicinity of Rutland and Addison Counties...the model is depicting a 6hr
blitz of 1-2"/hr rates.
gfs_p06_090s.gif


And the money shot...zoomed in with .5"+ stretching to north of the border
with surface winds out of the north locking in the cold air.
gfs_ten_090l.gif


Have a nice afternoon,
-Scott
 
I have trouble believing anything that the NAM depicts..The GFS on the other hand has been trending south and east with it's system.. That said, I wouldn't fall down if we just got a straight fropa. At least the winter is back and things start to look interesting.
The 12z 144hr Canadian is pretty interesting for us coastal boys..
 
I just read a hint about this on the NWS site and those guys are a little excited as well.

Scott - we will be hangin on your ever word/chart/graph.

Mark
 
Summary as of right now...will have a first forecast out tomorrow should trends continue to go towards a moderate to significant winter event. Then, Thursday I'll release a final forecast on the new Blog the Admin set up for me so I can put all my thoughts in there. I'm planning on updating it every couple days except in periods of extremely boring weather but could update it daily or twice daily during winter storms.

My gut feeling is the northern Adirondacks towards central and northern VT up through northern NH and ME all see a moderate snowfall. Moderate snowfall amounts are defined by the NWS as greater than 4" but less than 8" (solid advisory level snowfall but less than warning criteria). As you'll see below, right now the model spread shows anything from a sloppy 1" coating to a foot.

Best case is 6-12" and most models produce a moderate snowfall
(2-5" valley, 4-7" mtns) and although 10" would be sweet, working with no
base one might think not much will change. Right now we need a 12-20"
snowfall to open stuff up...with that said, if 10" falls, I will go
exploring.

Good news is any snowfall will start out very wet but chill quickly as
temps plummet into the teens on the mountain for Saturday
morning...providing some ground padding on the half frozen, half soft
ground. Right now my confidence is very low on what happens Fri-Sat as
seen by today's model spread (anywhere from way off to the NW to way off
to the SE):
GFS...best solution for us with 6-12" but trending quickly too far SE.
NAM...heaviest snow stays off to the NW but a quick thump snow of 3-6"
UKMET...more rain than snow, hard to tell with graphics but guess 1-3"
SREF (average of 20+ models all tweaked from the operational NAM)...good
hit with 5-9" and shows that the operational NAM is much further to the NW
than its 20 cousins.
CANADIAN GEM...very suppressed and leaves us mostly cold and dry.
EURO...middle of the road track straight through central New England; hard
to tell details with its graphics but heaviest snowfall likely focused
over northern Adirondacks.

-Scott
 
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
358 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

NYZ026>031-034-035-087-VTZ001>012-016>019-291100-
NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CLINTON-
SOUTHEASTERN ST. LAWRENCE-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-WESTERN CLINTON-
WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-SOUTHWESTERN ST. LAWRENCE-GRAND ISLE-
WESTERN FRANKLIN-ORLEANS-ESSEX-WESTERN CHITTENDEN-LAMOILLE-
CALEDONIA-WASHINGTON-WESTERN ADDISON-ORANGE-WESTERN RUTLAND-
WINDSOR-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN CHITTENDEN-EASTERN ADDISON-
EASTERN RUTLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MASSENA...MALONE...PLATTSBURGH...
STAR LAKE...SARANAC LAKE...TUPPER LAKE...DANNEMORA...
LAKE PLACID...PORT HENRY...TICONDEROGA...OGDENSBURG...POTSDAM...
GOUVERNEUR...ALBURGH...SOUTH HERO...ST. ALBANS...NEWPORT...
ISLAND POND...BURLINGTON...JOHNSON...STOWE...ST. JOHNSBURY...
MONTPELIER...MIDDLEBURY...VERGENNES...BRADFORD...RANDOLPH...
RUTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...WHITE RIVER JUNCTION...ENOSBURG FALLS...
RICHFORD...UNDERHILL...BRISTOL...RIPTON...EAST WALLINGFORD...
KILLINGTON
358 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

...RAIN POSSIBLY CHANGING TO A PERIOD OF SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY...

FOLLOWING A PERIOD OF MILD TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...INCLUDING POSSIBLE RECORD HIGHS THURSDAY...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME MORE WINTRY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS VERMONT AND
NORTHERN NEW YORK. A VERY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON WILL AFFECT OUR
REGION IN TWO PARTS LATE THIS WEEK. FIRST...A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EASTWARD THURSDAY EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING BRINGING A PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS. COLDER TEMPERATURES
MOVE INTO THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT...WHILE
THE FRONT ITSELF LIKELY BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON FRIDAY. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY...
INITIALLY ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND DURING FRIDAY
EVENING AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AND THE
STRENGTH OF COLD AIR THAT IS ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE NORTH COUNTRY
PRECEDING THE LOW...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SECOND ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION...WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING WITH AND CHANGING TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING. THE CHANGEOVER WOULD OCCUR FIRST ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN ADIRONDACKS...AND GRADUALLY AT LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE IT/S
TOO EARLY TO PREDICT EXACT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...BASED ON PRESENT INDICATIONS.

INTERESTS ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
POTENTIAL WINTER WEATHER SCENARIO FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH COUNTRY.

MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR WEATHER.GOV FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION...FORECASTS... AND WARNINGS.

Discussion...Pay attention to Pete Banacos thoughts (short-term section here)...he's a skier, graduated from Lyndon State College with TWC's Jim Cantore; while at school he scheduled classes to have Tues/Thurs off in order to sky Jay and Burke he knows his stuff:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
432 PM EST TUE NOV 28 2006

...WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...
...RAIN TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
VERY SHALLOW NEAR-SFC LAYER OF POLAR AIR HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEARLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
/33-35F AT KBTV/. THE KCXX VAD WIND PROFILE AT 21Z INDICATES A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN GEOSTROPHIC WAA ABOVE 2000FT...WITH
STRENGTHENING SWLY FLOW AS WELL. THUS...THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR WILL
GRADUALLY SCOUR OUT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD/SCT RAIN
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN VT WHERE PERIOD OF ASCENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE GREATEST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA...WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS NERN VT. OTHERWISE...PATHCY
FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WHEN
SHALLOW COOL AIR SHOULD FINALLY BE MIXED OUT.

MEANWHILE...LARGE-AMPLITUDE AND DIGGING UPR TROUGH ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST WILL GRADUALLY EVOLVE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY
TOMORROW...WITH DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS NRN
NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WARMING TREND WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACHING THE LOW 60S IN
THE CHAMPLAIN AND ST. LAWRENCE VLYS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RECORD
HIGHS FOR THURSDAY ARE POSSIBLE...AND CURRENT RECORDS ARE SHOWN
BELOW:

RECORD HIGH TEMPS FOR NOV 30TH ACRS OUR CWA...
BTV...60/1991
1V4...60/1934
MSS...66/1991
MPV...61/1991

THE WRN U.S. TROUGH APPEARS TO AFFECT OUR FORECAST AREA IN TWO
SEGMENTS...WITH A NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION THURSDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS NRN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT OR MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS
THURSDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MODERATELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL CAA INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...12Z MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON SRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEAR THE TENNESSEE RIVER
VALLEY AT 12Z FRIDAY...MOVING NEWD INTO CENTRAL OR SRN NEW ENGLAND
BY 06Z SATURDAY ALONG NEARLY STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THE 12Z AND 18Z NAM SHOWED GOOD RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY...WITH A LOW
TRACK FROM NEAR KPIT AT 12Z FRIDAY...TO THE MOHAWK VLY OF NY BY
18Z FRIDAY...TO CENTRAL ME BY 00Z SATURDAY. THE LOW DEEPENS TO 987
MB ACROSS CENTRAL ME FRIDAY EVENING. THIS TRACK WOULD SUGGEST RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW FROM NW-SE ACROSS OUR REGION FRIDAY AFTN...WITH
THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS LIKELY IN THE ADIRONDACKS. THE 12Z GFS
IS SLOWER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE TRACK OF THE SFC
CYCLONE...SUGGESTING...PERHAPS...A MORE WIDESPREAD MODERATE SNOW
EVENT FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALL MODEL
SOLUTIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW WILL BE PROGRESSIVE...WHICH WOULD
LIMIT THE OVERALL TIME FRAME FOR SNOW. IT/S TOO EARLY FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATION FORECAST WITH UNCERTAINTY IN BOTH LOW TRACK AND
DEGREE OF ANTECEDENT COLD AIR FOLLOWING INITIAL FROPA THURSDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED WITH
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE TO ALERT INTERESTED PARTIES THAT WINTRY
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY ACTIVE IN THE EARLY PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED FCST FRIDAY
EVENING...THEN GENERAL WX TO ACQUIESE AND TURN COLDER BY THE WEEKEND
INTO EARLY PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK. LATEST OPERATIONAL/ENSEMBLE
SOLNS...INCLUDING LATEST SREF AND LAST NIGHTS OPERATIONAL ECMWF
STILL SHOWING A RATHER HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY LATER
FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING IN REGARDS TO AFOREMENTIONED SFC BNDRY AND
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF SFC WAVE. IF LATEST TRENDS ARE CORRECT...A QUICK
CHANGEOVER FROM RA TO SN BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS QUITE
POSSBL...WITH -SN OR -SHSN SLOWLY WANING DURING OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
WILL MAINTAIN PRIOR FCSTS IDEA ATTM WITH LIKELY POPS FOR RA/SN
DURING THE EVENING HOURS...CHANGING TO SHSN AND TAPERING OFF BY
LATER AT NIGHT OR BY SATURDAY.

AFTERWARDS...TRENDING COLDER AND MAINLY DRY FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS MEAN HIGH PRESSURE AND SFC AND ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS REGION.
ENSEMBLES AND INDEED THIS MORNING/S OPERATIONAL SOLNS OFFER ADDL WEAK
ENERGY/COLD FRONTAL BNDRY TO TRAVERSE AREA BY LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PCPN. WILL ADD A LOW CHC OF SHSN FOR
THESE PERIODS ACCORDINGLY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CIGS AND IFR VIS TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF AREA
AS SHALLOW BACKDOOR COLD FRONT REMAINS SOUTH OF AREA. SOME PATCHY
-DZ ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. FRONT TO BEGIN LIFTING
NORTHWARD ACROSS FA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY DURING
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CIGS/VIS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE AFTER
02Z...WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY.
AFTER 12Z WED CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO VFR AND/OR MVFR UNDER
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BANACOS
LONG TERM...JMG
AVIATION...JMG
 
Just saw the new 00z NAM...not favorable solution for significant snowfall by taking a deep surface low up through the Saint Lawrence Valley while burying areas such as Detroit and Toronto.
 
so much for the GFS's south and east trend.. At least it's fast..
It's going to be a long winter with the models flip floping...
 
Are we in need of an update????

When will we know what will hit us? What's coming up for those of us near Jay Peak and Sutton?

8in of sticky stuff would be nice... 10in would be better... 12in would be dreamy!
 
cold air is aloft right now. 24 degrees up top; a full 6 degrees less than what North Winds is forecasting for this period. Significant icing up top. Front should come through again and pop temps back up this afternoon for a spell before heading down during the overnight.
 
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