6 to 8 feet predicted in Sierras by Wednesday

tseeb

tseeb

Well-known member
On my local news, they are predicting 6 to 8 feet new in the Sierra by Wednesday. It is starting out warm with snow levels above 6000 feet, but they are predicting snow level to drop to 3500 feet. Monday morning at 6 am, Kirkwood is reporting 34 degrees and 15-16" new in the last 24 hours. My friends went up for yesterday and today. Hopefully the winds did not close down too many lifts. I'm going to Kirkwood Friday to Sunday as I signed my wife up for 3 days Women's Expedition and we are staying there.
 
I live at 8000 and it is now raining on the 8 inches we got last night. More rain this season then I ever remember! Main Lodge has 15 inches of fresh slop...
 
The top of Alpine at 8643' was 31.5 degrees from 4:15 to 6 a.m. this morning and stayed below freezing all day. This evening at 6:30 it dropped under 27 degrees, but the winds have picked up with a sustained 15 minutes of 101 mph and a gust of 122. See http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/rev/remotedata/ward.php

My friends skied this morning at Sierra and said it was better at the 8800' top than wet 6600' bottom. They said a lot of snow fell during the day yesterday at Kirkwood and the backside was closed due to storm.
 
Kirkwood has not had much rain this season. They are claiming 24 degress and 24-36" new this morning. They seem to be having trouble with the math or keeping their story straight on the season total as it was 305" at the high end a week ago. They now have received over 50" more, but only claim 241-317" season total with 116-178" base.
 
The snow level of the Halloween-to-Election-Day storm averaged 9,500 feet. Almost no snow anywhere at Tahoe but ~4 feet on the upper half of Mammoth.

Jan. 22-24 was another period where Mammoth got close to 5 feet I think while no one at Tahoe had more than 3 feet, with nearly all rain below 8,000.

Nonetheless I agree Kirkwood's online reporting looks inconsistent.
 
Now it's up to 6 feet overnight

Winter Storm Warning for Greater Lake Tahoe Area, CA
until 4 am PST, Wed., Mar. 4, 2009

Issued by The National Weather Service
Reno, NV
3:41 pm PST, Tue., Mar. 3, 2009

SNOW... HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

* TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 14 TO 28 INCHES AT LAKE LEVEL BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 3 TO 4 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL ABOVE 7000 FEET WITH UP TO 6 FEET ABOVE 8000 FEET NEAR THE SIERRA CREST.
 
That hits close to home as I have a friend who is a pro patroller at Squaw, but older than 41. Somebody also died last weekend skiing alone above Emerald Bay when an avalanche carried him into trees.
 
Kirkwood reported 18 degrees this morning at 5:30 AM and "Last 24 hours 43-48" Season Total Range 318-392". Hopefully they can run more than Solitude which is all I saw running Tuesday morning. It would be nice if they could leave all the powder for me on Friday, but it looks like Thursday will be the day.
 
Planning to go on sleds to the BC on Sat near Tahoe. How high is the avy danger? I am going with 2 experienced guides but I am a newbie in BC.

Should I stay at the resorts and have him guide me inbounds...
 
pra4snow":84yuxici said:
Planning to go on sleds to the BC on Sat near Tahoe. How high is the avy danger? I am going with 2 experienced guides but I am a newbie in BC.

Should I stay at the resorts and have him guide me inbounds...
Click to expand...

Not that I'm a BC guy at all, but you need to find/follow the local avalanche center forecast closely - for starters (your guides, it sounds like, will know exactly what/where to find out that info). Mostly depends on when it stops snowing/raining. Usually (but not always), Tahoe/Sierra snowfalls become stable within a couple of days after the storm ends (vs Colo or Utah for example that can stay high avi danger for long periods with, or even without, a storm). Although this is a most unusual year for snowpacks all around the west.
 
Mammoth's 418 inches of season snowfall has now overtaken Alta for most in North America so far this season. Odds look good for July 4th with a current base of 12-16 feet. :D

Mammoth has never led North America in one season's snowfall due to its usual tight correlation with Kirkwood. Interestingly, Alta has had top honors only once, in 1984. Mt. Baker or Mt. Rainier usually wins this race, but they are well below average this year. Alta's April average is much higher than anywhere in the Pacific States, so it rates to come out ahead by the end of this season.
 
"Odds look good for July 4th with a current base of 12-16 feet."

I doubt it with the current base, we are not even at 100% of water content for April first.

Tell us what your stats show... 12-16 feet on this date with no more snow has resulted in how many July 4th ski offs?
 
No more snow would be an aberration. Average snow would be another 60-70 inches. Hard for me to believe they wouldn't make July 4 on that, close to 500 for the year.

Remember that first storm early November with 4+ feet above 9,500. That isn't going to show up on any hydrology stations lower than that.
 
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