A very curious forecast for Northern Wasatch

Evren

Evren

New member
Oh, boy! Oh, boy! We are all very hopeful for the next few days in Northern Utah, obviously. But there is one little area that is returning *highly* unusual snow predictions on the NWS site. The location I am looking at is 8600 ft right around Mt Ogden -- Snowbasin. The prediction bands through Tuesday night add up to... wait for it... 60 to 92 inches!!! Here is the link:
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=41.201906328598156&lon=-111.87727496959269
This forecast has been relatively stable since this morning, and if anything -- has gone up.
Now, the winter storm warning is for 2-3, possibly 4 feet in favored areas (and Northern Wasatch will be favored) but still... 92 is almost twice that.

Any ideas as to what may be going on?

Snowbasin measures its snowfall at mid-mountain (unlike some others) so even if the forecast were to pan out, it would record somewhat less. But somewhat less than 60-92 inches is still an obscene amount.
 
It has been very, very good and the forecast for the Wasatch as a whole just keeps going up. I have nothing to offer in response to your question, but I was too tired last night to report on yesterday. Got a face shot in a foot of new 6% on the very last turn off the day at 3pm, we picked up another half foot + of <5% overnight and are expecting another foot of <5% during the day today...and that's before the real storm arrives!

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Evren":dh55irol said:
crazy -- up to 99.5 inches through Tuesday. up to 54 inches just for today/tonight.
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Something is not right in what you're looking at. Here is this morning's NWS forecast for the Northern Wasatch:

Area Forecast For: The Wasatch Mountains I-80 North
Including Snowbasin, Woodruff & Randolph
Issued: December 16, 2012 03:26:03 MST

Today: Breezy...snow. Accumulation around 1 inch in the bear river valley and 6 to 12 inches in the mountains. Highs in the upper 20s. West winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tonight: Breezy...snow. Accumulation around 1 inch in the bear river valley and 7 to 14 inches in the mountains. Lows near 20. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Monday: Breezy...snow. Accumulation 1 to 3 inches in the bear river valley and 5 to 10 inches in the mountains. Highs in the mid 30s. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 30 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday night: Snow. Accumulations possible. Lows near 15. Chance of snow near 100 percent.

Tuesday: Snow...colder. Highs near 20. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Tuesday night: Snow likely. Much colder. Lows around 5 below. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs near 20.

Wednesday night and Thursday: Partly cloudy. Lows zero to 5 above. Highs around 30.

Thursday night and Friday: Partly cloudy. Lows 10 to 15. Highs in the mid 30s.

Friday night: Partly cloudy. Lows 15 to 20.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 30s.
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And while I'm at it here's the NWS forecast for the Cottonwoods:

Cottonwood Canyons Forecast
This forecast, issued at: 12-16-2012 02:36:03and is for use in snow safety activities and emergency management.
Synopsis:
...Winter Storm Warning in effect through 9 am Wednesday...

Cooling associated with a passing disturbance will bring an increase in high snow ratio snow today. Rapid warming is forecast to take place Sunday night into Monday. Locations favored in SW warm advection flow will do well (although with lots of water and lowering snow ratios). Strong winds are forecast tonight increasing through Monday (80-100 mph).

The next cold front late Monday night through Tuesday will rapidly bring a significantly cooler airmass, high snow rates of increasingly higher snow ratio snowfall. A lake effect snow band appears likely Tuesday night and Wednesday SE of the GSL which could further enhance snow totals quickly downstream given strong instability off the lake and very high snow ratios due to the cold airmass.

-----

1st Period: 12 Hour Forecast Beginning 5:00 AM
Weather: PERIODS OF SNOW, INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS.
Alta GuardTemp: 18-22

Snow/Water:
80% chance of 6-8" of snow and 0.3-0.4" of water
20% chance of 9-16" of snow and 0.5-0.8" of water

Snow Level: 3000 rising to 4000ft

Snow Rate (in/hr): Avg - 1, Pk - 2
Snow Rate Comment:

Wind (MPH)
12 Hr Average
9000' Ridgelines: WSW @ 10-20 Gust 25
11000' Ridgelines: W @ 25-35 Gust 50
Comment:

Chance of Lightning: 10%

-----

2nd Period: 12 Hour Forecast Beginning 5:00 PM

Weather: PERIODS OF SNOW, WINDS BECOMING STRONG.
Alta GuardTemp: 15-19
Snow/Water:
60% chance of 9-11" of snow and 0.6-0.7" of water
40% chance of 12-18" of snow and 0.8-1.1" of water
Snow Level: about 4300 ft.

Snow Rate (in/hr): Avg - 1, Pk - 2
Snow Rate Comment:

Wind (MPH)
12 Hr Average
9000' Ridgelines: SW @ 15-25 Gust 40
11000' Ridgelines: WSW @ 35-45 Gust 70
Comment:

Chance of Lightning: 0%
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Obviously they've updated the forecast but its still over 5ft.

ImageUploadedByTapatalk1355691842.553907.jpg
 
There was non-stop moderate snow all day today at Snowbasin. Nothing epic, maybe a foot? It felt epic, just by comparison to what we had before.
Even with the limited terrain, I was getting freshies all day as surprisingly few people ventured off-piste. And Needles, despite being the only game in town, was walk-on.

When Strawberry and Jean-Paul open (and it should be soon), Snowbasin will be amazing.
 
Snowbasin seems slow to open Strawberry and John Paul. Is it lack of snow or lack of business until we get closer to Christmas? Is your pass at Snowbasin instead of Deer Valley this season? If so a wise choice IMHO.
 
Tony Crocker":1wlig94a said:
Snowbasin seems slow to open Strawberry and John Paul. Is it lack of snow or lack of business until we get closer to Christmas? Is your pass at Snowbasin instead of Deer Valley this season? If so a wise choice IMHO.
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it's a number of contributing factors:
* Until this current series of storms, there was virtually no snow on the lower half of the mountain
* Strawberry has the added problem of much of that terrain facing the southern half of the compass
* most of the terrain off the John Paul is upper intermediate/advanced/expert - they, like most other ski areas, focus on the real revenue generating terrain first, which isn't that
* yes, there is a real lack of business prior to xmas
 
Sorry for the Jekyll & Hyde nature of these last posts but: I am getting peeved off. Basin got skunked out Friday-sat; Sunday night was a bust and now some evil computer model is angling to put the heavy snow tonight on some god-forsaken plateau down south, where it won't do anyone any good. How does five feet turn to 8 inches, so far?!?
Really the only proper run open at basin is sweet revenge. Even a basic run like blue grouse under needles gondola is not yet open. Everything else is little feeder runs off to left and right of sweet revenge and some terrain up top under the gondola. And while there is plenty snow there, the terrain has big boulders and the snow over them is not consolidated. unlike a root or branch, the serrated edge on those rocks will totally ruin a ski, I think . I've been doing meticulous first runs taking soundings and looking up from below, then trying to remember all the spots to avoid. Still, have three nicks on the bases. And many close calls.
And all of that fun closed at 2:30 due to wind today. So my parents are doing laps on the bunny hill via little cat while I sit in plush comfort and vent here.
I know basin would have opened jean Paul if there was enough snow. It opened way earlier two years ago. Strawberry tends to open later due to what Marc mentioned above and the very rocky yet wide open terrain that needs a lot of snow to cover properly.
Hey! It just started snowing... Dare I hope?
 
Just spoke to some guys in mountain ops and they need 24-30 to open jean Paul. Dang. Strawberry is close to opening, because they can make snow there, unlike jp which is forest service land with more restrictions on pipes and such.
 
Evren":yzhyttjg said:
How does five feet turn to 8 inches, so far?!?
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From Snowbasin's mountain report:

Snowbasin":yzhyttjg said:
17 out of 104 trails open. 2 out of 9 lifts open.

Snow Information
Past 24 hrs: 8"
Past 48 hrs: 10"
Storm Total: 14"
Current Base: 36"
Season Total: 88"
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A big contributor to these numbers is this:

Snowbasin":yzhyttjg said:
Top (7,703 ft)
Base (6,316 ft)
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The base elevations in the Cottonwoods are all above 8K by comparison. At the 7K' level, LCC is just as lean as Snowbasin.
 
Damn, was hoping for a big storm to get the Ogden resorts going. I really would like to take my wife to powder mountain for some intermediate powder skiing.

Keep the snow basin reports coming.

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The Cottonwoods got skunked as well after this weekend's powder pigout. Solitude only got five inches overnight and nothing during the day; however, we're hopeful for tonight's storm.
 
jamesdeluxe":bamvwiuq said:
The Cottonwoods got skunked as well after this weekend's powder pigout. Solitude only got five inches overnight and nothing during the day; however, we're hopeful for tonight's storm.
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Hard to say that they got skunked since it's been snowing non-stop since last Thursday night. Sunday night/Monday was a predicted break in the action. Alta is reporting a storm total of 29" so far, with 9"-16" predicted for tonight.
 
Marc_c, not sure what you you were quoting there but the top of Snowbasin is higher than 7700. JP is 8800, Mt. Allen tram is 9400. But you're right, Snowbasin has a much lower base than Cottonwood areas. Which seems to have come into play during the "rain event" everyone is referring to.

Socal, a guy who lives just by Powder Mtn had come out to Snowbasin yesterday (and was complaining) so I'd assume it is not better there. He mentioned a great deal they have this year where up to 6 people get a guide for the whole day and passes for a lightning ridge cat ride each -- all for $200.
 
Bummer. Oh well, looks like a 5 day trip hitting snowbird and solitude, although the wife has commented she wanted to do some skiing one day (she's a boarder). Thinking of buying a combined Altabird pass and spending the morning with her at snowbird and the afternoon at alta where I can run off to hit some of my favorite runs. I know there's the $10 after three deal but I think I'd like more than an hour or so at alta. am I nuts or does this make sense?
 
The after-3 deal is only for Sunnyside and Cecret, so I doubt it includes your favorite runs. There is, however, an all-Mountain 2-4:30 ticket available.

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