Alta, UT 1/10-24/2019 - 7 feet in 8 days

[Admin]

Days 40-52 for me (spanning 1/10-24/2019) ended with a 7-foot storm cycle over the past 8 days including a full-on country club day, getting Interlodged, and the entire mountain closing down at mid-day for too much snow. Crazy!

Season to date now totals 271", no matter what cockamamie personal standards Crocker has, and base depths are finally >100". The mountain is skiing superbly. Once again, I'll summarize this period in photos:

Enjoyed over 22,000 vertical feet of hard-charging skiing yesterday -- my second biggest day thus far this season -- to cap off this storm cycle on the first partial blue sky day we've had in quite a while. I'm now well over 600,000 verts season-to-date. Barring injury or some other catastrophe, it'll be super easy to break 1.5 million vertical feet and settle in somewhere around 125 days this season.

 

[lono]

Thanks for the report and pictures.Five an hour.....wow!

 

[TRam]

Great post Admin!
@Iono hows whitefish skiing? seemed like a kinda slow start but saw you got snow lately. I have a friend up there that wants me to come up but its requires driving by or flying over some premier powder resorts to get there. What kind of mtn is it? I see its ranked top 5 all of a sudden

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

 

[lono]

Ski all the great places driving to and from,or fly and do a Castle,Fernie,Kikking Horse loop.Whitefish is fun medium size hill with plenty of tree skiing on all aspects.This years snow 90% of average,25"-75" base.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Alta's snowfall as of Jan. 14 was 78% of normal but is now 100%. FYI counting or not counting October isn't relevant to these percentages because the 30.5 inches last October is close to Alta's reported 28.5 inch average. Any way you slice it Alta is dead average season-to-date. The 100+ inch base is not out of the ordinary either.

People have short memories. This year looks impressive because 6 of the past 7 years have been 85% or lower in Utah. By contrast 5 of admin's first 7 seasons in Utah were 122% or higher and only 2006-07 was below average.

Jim Steenburgh is claiming credit for the recent dumps as he left Utah for Austria on Jan. 14. http://wasatchweatherweenies.blogspot.c ... iveth.html

FYI I'm not the only one with baggage issues traveling to the Alps. Jim was reunited with his ski bag on Jan. 21, the 7 day delay being worse than any of mine.

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

Report Date 24 Hr New Snow 24 Hr Water 24 Hr Density Storm Total Cumulative
Season Snow Cumulative
Season Water
2019-01-25 Trace 0.00” N/A 12.5” 272.0” 23.47”
2019-01-24 2.0” 0.17” 8.50% 12.5” 272.0” 23.47”
2019-01-23 10.5” 1.26” 12.00% 10.5” 270.0” 23.30”
2019-01-21 23.5” 1.45” 6.17% 23.5” 259.5” 22.04”
2019-01-20 Trace 0.02” N/A Trace 236.0” 20.59”
2019-01-19 1.0” 0.13” 13.00% 1.0” 236.0” 20.57”
2019-01-18 8.5” 0.70” 8.24% 42.0” 235.0” 20.44”
2019-01-17 21.0” 2.46” 11.71% 33.5” 226.5” 19.74”
2019-01-16 7.0” 0.59” 8.43% 12.5” 205.5” 17.28”
2019-01-15 5.5” 0.38” 6.91% 5.5” 198.5” 16.69”
2019-01-10 0.5” 0.06” 12.00% 0.5” 193.0” 16.31”
2019-01-07 2.0” 0.22” 11.00% 26.0” 192.5” 16.25”
2019-01-06 21.5” 1.42” 6.60% 24.0” 190.5” 16.03”
2019-01-05 2.5” 0.18” 7.20% 2.5” 169.0” 14.61”

if there's one time period I don't recommend to visitors, it's from about Jan 5 to Jan 25, or thereabouts.

Yeah, only 105.5 inches during the 21 days to avoid. :-({|=

it'll be super easy to break 1.5 million vertical feet

Note my record is just over 1.6 million; it shouldn't be too hard to get over that in 125 days.

 

[Admin]

Alta's snowfall as of Jan. 14 was 78% of normal

No it wasn't.

but is now 100%. FYI counting or not counting October isn't relevant to these percentages because the 30.5 inches last October is close to Alta's reported 28.5 inch average. Any way you slice it Alta is dead average season-to-date.

You know, I'm not even going to respond in depth to this idiocy, but I'll admit that I can't help myself from pointing out the obvious. Anyone with even half a brain can deduce that with the season only 40% over, and 55% of a 500-inch annual average already received, we're well in excess of 100% season-to-date. Never mind NRCS which stated that we were at 125% even before the last foot fell:

But hey, what do they know? Not as much as the magnificent Tony Crocker, who's analyzing Utah's snowpack from Austria with his failsafe spreadsheets. We must be dead average! Stay away from Utah skiing this season, it's dead average. Don't bother, it sucks. Everyone should go hire a guide in Austria instead.Those pictures are all photoshopped, don't trust them.

Waste of my time.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Nobody said there's anything mediocre about this season. Average at Alta would be record breaking at the vast majority of ski areas in North America. But it has a long way to go to catch up with 2004-05, 2005-06, 2007-08, 2008-09 and 2010-11, all of which received at least 649 inches at Alta Collins. There's also 2016-17 at 593 inches.

Snowpack and snowfall are not precisely correlated. Snowpack accumulates deeper with big dumps like the last week of November and last week than when it comes in bits and pieces. And qualitatively that last week of November is exactly what skiers want to set up a good season even if subsequent snowfall is average or even below average. Last year at Tahoe was the opposite. The big March was modest consolation after 4 months of marginal skiing before that.

Tony Crocker, who's analyzing Utah's snowpack from Austria with his failsafe spreadsheets.

Nope, it's the specifics of Alta Collins data, taken from Alta's website https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather ... ll-history:
Alta Monthly Averages: Compiled using data from 1980 to 2014
Details Oct Nov Dec Jan Monthly Average
Snowfall 28.50” 76.77” 92.00” 95.40”
Note that average snowfall including October through the end of January is 292.67 inches. Alta currently stands at 272 inches with a week to go.

 

[EMSC]

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

=D> You win the Internets for a day sir.




More seriously, it looks like some spectacular skiing. Those basin charts are SWE, not snowfall BTW. So basically Utah has had much wetter than normal snow this season than in 'average' years. Makes for good base covering and then you get a nice fluffy storm cycle like this last one so that it doesn't matter, the skiing kicks butt: period.

Certainly no where near the volume over this way, but still pretty good numbers when even Eldora is over 2 feet in the past 7 days...

 

[Marc_C]

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

It's been years and you and Tony still refuse to even remotely attempt to understand what Admin, me, and Eubanks (KSL) have been actually saying. The threads where we clearly state what is being said are in the archives. Anything further discussion is pointless.

 

[Marc_C]

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

=D> You win the Internets for a day sir.

Nah. Admin and I patiently explained how to make a peach cobbler and he and Tony are telling us we're wrong because it doesn't contain the ingredients of an apple pie.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Seven feet/eight days: that pesky January snow drought again.

It's been years and you and Tony still refuse to even remotely attempt to understand what Admin, me, and Eubanks (KSL) have been actually saying. The threads where we clearly state what is being said are in the archives. Anything further discussion is pointless.

Yes and I'm still inclined to trust Jim Steenburgh at U of U over the 2 Marcs and some TV guy.

 

[Admin]

Those basin charts are SWE, not snowfall BTW.

True, of course.

So basically Utah has had much wetter than normal snow this season than in 'average' years.

Not true.

"He who shall no longer be named" has long argued that Wasatch snowfall is very consistent from one month to the next. Therefore, given that with the season only 40% over, and 55% of a 500-inch annual average already received, we're well in excess of 100% season-to-date in terms of snowfall inches, as well as SWE. Evan is currently skiing Japan, otherwise I'd get an updated Snowbird Snotel chart from him as I don't know where to access it myself.

Unless he somehow has an epiphany and therefore ceases to be an opinionated ass, I will no longer directly address "he who shall no longer be named."

 

[Tony Crocker]

I did check water content on Alta’s site and it’s fairly normal. The snowpack is above average due to the concentration of big dumps. Alta Collins averaged 563.18 inches fom 1980-2014 if you include October https://www.alta.com/conditions/weather ... ll-history. Therefore 55% of season snowfall (Alta measures Oct. 1 - Apr. 30) being attained by the end of January is reasonable. If admin still insists season to date snowfall is over 100% he can take his argument to Alta Ski Patrol.

Readers can decide whether continuing to deny data posted not by me but by Alta Ski Patrol constitutes being an opinionated ass. Please, admin, think of the kittens!

 

[jamesdeluxe]

It's been years and you and Tony still refuse to even remotely attempt to understand what Admin, me, and Eubanks (KSL) have been actually saying.

I'm not going to search and dig up the old threads, but I've agreed with the January Snow Drought observations and stopped going to SLC during that month based purely on anecdotal evidence -- getting skunked for new snow and rock-hard conditions three years in a row in the late 00s. What I said above was a joke implying that the exception may prove the rule.

 

[baldyskier]

It's been years and you and Tony still refuse to even remotely attempt to understand what Admin, me, and Eubanks (KSL) have been actually saying.

I'm not going to search and dig up the old threads, but I've agreed with the January Snow Drought observations and stopped going to SLC during that month based purely on anecdotal evidence -- getting skunked for new snow and rock-hard conditions three years in a row in the late 00s. What I said above was a joke implying that the exception may prove the rule.

I was leery about going in January, too, but made the trek based on Evan Thayer of Open Snow. His few days to 2 week outlook has helped me time good powder weeks in SLC for a couple years now. The downside is that I’ve resorted to driving from LA, as airfare gets expensive for last minute bookings.

 

[Marc_C]

It's been years and you and Tony still refuse to even remotely attempt to understand what Admin, me, and Eubanks (KSL) have been actually saying.

I'm not going to search and dig up the old threads, but I've agreed with the January Snow Drought observations and stopped going to SLC during that month based purely on anecdotal evidence -- getting skunked for new snow and rock-hard conditions three years in a row in the late 00s. What I said above was a joke implying that the exception may prove the rule.

Yeah, I wasn't entirely sure. Apologies for painting you with the broad brush.

 

[Marc_C]

I was leery about going in January, too, but made the trek based on Evan Thayer of Open Snow.

As Admin and I have always maintained from the first time this has come up, it's by no means a hard rule and certainly doesn't apply every year, just like those magic snowfall averages.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The “Iron Blosam” dry spell in March has occurred during more of the past 15 years and at greater severity than the so-called dry spell in mid-January. Both of them dissolve into random variation once you include enough data. January at Alta was spectacular during most of the 1990’s before the Marcs arrived in Utah.

FYI the Snowbird SNOTEL has daily data back to 1989. I went through that a few years ago and MarcC is welcome to apply his more sophisticated statistical techniques to that data to support his assertion. But of course he would rather just wave his hands in the air with his confirmation bias.

So let’s call them the Crocker March jinx and the Guido/Chrusch January jinx. Both have zero predictive value for future seasons. I have offered to make ongoing bets for future January 5-25 and have heard nothing but crickets in response.

 

[reefuss12]

Thx for posting the pics. We here in So Calif are not blessed with snow anymore apparently. So your pics are always a big plus.