Baldy 2/12/11: Base Recon

Aukai

New member
I had originally intended to go to Snow Summit today, but something came up in the afternoon in LA, so had to stay close. I have the next week off, and Summit is on tap for Monday, and a Mammoth powfest (fingers crossed) from Thursday through Saturday this week. So I figured I'd head up for some mellow turns, and scout out what base Thunder has before the possibility of snow later this week.

Convenient Baldy measuring units are either Manzanita Units, second to Buried Snowcat Units. While we don't have a yardstick cat buried under 3 this year, we can see that the current base on Emile's measures about 0.75 Manzanitas. This was all hardpack that wouldn't soften, there were no takers.
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Here's the last face of Skyline, well covered after a week of good snowmaking. Still, grooming was surprisingly variable and not as smooth as I've come to expect from the place. I suppose it's a good measure of how much they've stepped up their grooming in general the last two years, since I would have considered this par for the course a few years ago. Bonanza was groomed absolutely awfully, with a big line of death cookies down the middle of the run. I overheard that management was not at all happy with this and that the responsible cat driver would be getting an earful in the near future.

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Herb's and Andy's are still doable, or would be given the right conditions.
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West face of Goldridge burned off.
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Looking back up at one of the exits from the Goldridge trees. Still good coverage in there.
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Entrance to South Bowl. Dirt patches block the entrance, but apparently good coverage inside. Only saw 2 skiers give it a shot, they said it was too hard, even at noon.
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Baldy Bowl, getting ugly.
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Telegraph, one thin line connects to the top.
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Ontario peak, well covered north-facing aspects.
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Robin's was decently groomed, and rode well all day.
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Downloading, remnants of Nightmare. Bentley's was equally done.
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They pushed around some earth at the very bottom of 1 to fill in the considerable ruts all the rains had carved out earlier this season. Now all they need is some snow to cover the newly-smooth dirt.
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Not much to speak of, but if any substantial snowfall does come, now you know what will be lurking underneath!

Drooling over the prospects of Mammoth later this week!
 
While Baldy is far below my standards for going there now, this is an informative report. I was interested in seeing how the new management would handle a typical extended drought. I would note the following:
1) Regrading the dirt at the base of chair 1 in case they get a big dump. I suspect in the old days they would not have even thought about doing that until summer.
2) Restoring the bottom of Skyline with snowmaking. From what Garry observed in mid-January I didn't think they would try that.
3) Grooming took a big leap forward last year. It's nice to hear they are trying to prevent backsliding on that.
 
This is what would concern me about local skiing from LA to Baldy. Baldy seems pretty bare right although you can clearly see what would make that terrain totally worth skiing when the getting is good. How much of the mountain was skiable at the start of January when Baldy was pounded? Also, what is the snowfall total so far this year?
 
I'd say 90 percent for maybe a week, but more like 4 days.You could ski to the bottom, but it was hard, at least for me, to miss every single rock when reaching the bottom third. Can't say a 100 percent, because the exit routes to Sugar Pine from points looker's left were never sufficiently covered.

Snowfall? Mountain High says 35 to 55 inches, so I'm guessing Thunder Mountain has received 70-75? (Tony?). Far less below the Notch.
 
My blended SoCal snow total stands at 51 inches. Rule of thumb is to multiply by 4/3 for Baldy. But that December storm was different. Thunder had at least 2 feet more than that average, though of course the parking lot base didn't get that extra snow. All of Thunder and chair 4 were covered for a couple of weeks; I call that 70% open. Also as documented here there were a few diehards who skied partway down chair 1 and walked the rest a month ago.

All of Thunder I call 50%, but when they lost chair 4 there were also a few sunny places lost on Thunder as well so probably 40% mid-January. It's still 30+% in terms of coverage, but realistically much more limited since much of the north-facing off-piste is icy DFU territory.

From SoCal Rider's comments you can see my standards are fairly strict. For those who complain about my eastern analyses I apply the same standards here. I do not define chair 1 as skiable at any time so far this season, and thus this year will join the 11 "duds" if it does not snow enough later to ski to the base. As noted elsewhere this year rates above all of those 11 due the extra upper mountain snow in December combined with some assistance from new management in maintaining conditions longer than historically. I never skied Baldy during those other 11 seasons but I had a decent day there this past Dec. 28.
 
TonyC or anyone else who frequents Mt. Baldy...what do you think of tomorrow? Website says it's snowing down to the parking lot. It has been cold...I'm hoping they've been receiving their share of snow vs. rain. Your thoughts.
 
No way. They report 3-4 inches this morning, and we know that's up on Thunder. So dust-on-crust with no improvement in coverage IMHO. Yesterday's storm was mixed precipitation. We have to wait and see what the predicted colder storm Friday/Saturday will do.
 
Tony Crocker":374hb4sr said:
No way. They report 3-4 inches this morning, and we know that's up on Thunder. So dust-on-crust with no improvement in coverage IMHO. Yesterday's storm was mixed precipitation. We have to wait and see what the predicted colder storm Friday/Saturday will do.
Truth.

I have no plans to return to Baldy until and unless they get something on the order of 18-24". That should be enough to provide sufficient covereage for the thin parts of Thunder while re-opening Ch 4. Until then, you're pretty much constrained to the groomers and a few, sheltered areas of Thunder (i.e. skier's right of Skyline that is wind-protected and faces due N, Goldridge trees). I've made a reservation for Monday in the hopes that the next two storms deliver, but that will be a Sunday call.
 
Presidents Day? Yikes — bumper poo show. Man, I was excited last week at the thought of this storm producing until I realized it was a holiday weekend.

Edit: No doubt, Tony's 70 percent is a more legit figure. I kinda regretted going all the way down to the bottom the day I did — Jan. 4: the first day after the storm vacated.
 
I fear a poo show on Sunday as well. Get there early!!!

I made a reservation, but I'm starving to ski....my last session was January 4th, the last real appreciable bit of snow.

Sounds like we'll get at least a foot of snow out of this one arriving Friday, possibly 18 inches and maybe more in some places. It's interesting, because they say they got 4 inches from yesterdays storm. That's 4 inches on top of bulletproof baldy base. So.....with 12-24 inches on top of the new 4 inches, will be very interesting to see how it skiis on Sunday.

we'll see.......
 
jojo_obrien":ay9rmhx2 said:
I fear a poo show on Sunday as well. Get there early!!!

I made a reservation, but I'm starving to ski....my last session was January 4th, the last real appreciable bit of snow.

Sounds like we'll get at least a foot of snow out of this one arriving Friday, possibly 18 inches and maybe more in some places. It's interesting, because they say they got 4 inches from yesterdays storm. That's 4 inches on top of bulletproof baldy base. So.....with 12-24 inches on top of the new 4 inches, will be very interesting to see how it skiis on Sunday.

we'll see.......
I made a reservation for Saturday, but that really depends on how much snow has fallen by Saturday morning, and how wild the weather on Saturday looks to be.
 
baldyskier":157vuct7 said:
jojo_obrien":157vuct7 said:
I fear a poo show on Sunday as well. Get there early!!!

I made a reservation, but I'm starving to ski....my last session was January 4th, the last real appreciable bit of snow.

Sounds like we'll get at least a foot of snow out of this one arriving Friday, possibly 18 inches and maybe more in some places. It's interesting, because they say they got 4 inches from yesterdays storm. That's 4 inches on top of bulletproof baldy base. So.....with 12-24 inches on top of the new 4 inches, will be very interesting to see how it skiis on Sunday.

we'll see.......
I made a reservation for Saturday, but that really depends on how much snow has fallen by Saturday morning, and how wild the weather on Saturday looks to be.

I'm considering it, but after http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7696&p=42487#p42487, I think I might hold off.
 
baldyskier":p9jrrm37 said:
jojo_obrien":p9jrrm37 said:
I fear a poo show on Sunday as well. Get there early!!!

I made a reservation, but I'm starving to ski....my last session was January 4th, the last real appreciable bit of snow.

Sounds like we'll get at least a foot of snow out of this one arriving Friday, possibly 18 inches and maybe more in some places. It's interesting, because they say they got 4 inches from yesterdays storm. That's 4 inches on top of bulletproof baldy base. So.....with 12-24 inches on top of the new 4 inches, will be very interesting to see how it skiis on Sunday.

we'll see.......
I made a reservation for Saturday, but that really depends on how much snow has fallen by Saturday morning, and how wild the weather on Saturday looks to be.

I'm considering it, but after http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7696&p=42487#p42487, I think I might hold off.
 
socal":2umkxkyj said:
baldyskier":2umkxkyj said:
jojo_obrien":2umkxkyj said:
I fear a poo show on Sunday as well. Get there early!!!

I made a reservation, but I'm starving to ski....my last session was January 4th, the last real appreciable bit of snow.

Sounds like we'll get at least a foot of snow out of this one arriving Friday, possibly 18 inches and maybe more in some places. It's interesting, because they say they got 4 inches from yesterdays storm. That's 4 inches on top of bulletproof baldy base. So.....with 12-24 inches on top of the new 4 inches, will be very interesting to see how it skiis on Sunday.

we'll see.......
I made a reservation for Saturday, but that really depends on how much snow has fallen by Saturday morning, and how wild the weather on Saturday looks to be.

I'm considering it, but after http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7696&p=42487#p42487, I think I might hold off.

I'm hoping for something closer to January 3rd, 2011, when there had been maybe 12"-18" of new snow and it continued into the morning. The Baldy crew handled that storm pretty well (although this one looks to be bigger, and continue more into the day on Saturday). I'm busy Sunday, so it's Saturday or nothing for me. Still going to be a judgment call early Saturday AM.
viewtopic.php?f=3&t=9317
 
Check out the forecast now for tonight at the top of thunder http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClic...48&site=lox&smap=1&unit=0&lg=en&FcstType=text

Today: Snow likely. Some thunder is also possible. Patchy dense fog. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a high near 29. Breezy, with a south wind around 25 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Patchy dense fog. Low around 17. Windy, with a south wind between 30 and 35 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 28 to 34 inches possible.

Saturday: Snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Patchy dense fog before 10am. High near 21. Wind chill values as low as -5. Windy, with a west wind between 25 and 30 mph, with gusts as high as 45 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Saturday Night: Snow showers, mainly before 4am. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 12. Wind chill values as low as -5. Breezy, with a west wind between 20 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

30-35 wind with 55 gusts is pretty close to what it was like the day i was there and didn't get to ski.
 
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