Can Powder Skiing be Quantified?

[Patrick]

Attached is a graph of vertical + powder for a few seasons of interest to FTO.

Patrick 2005-06: 61 days, 873K vertical, 79K powder

Some of Patrick's days are estimates, but I'm quite confident the vertical total is within 5% and the powder within 10%. 2005-06 was Patrick's first 12 month season, probably typical of the past 2 years also. He would have had less powder in 2006-07 but perhaps more this year.

Actually, 2005-06 isn't really typical. If you notice the graph, I didn't ski much prior to late January. That was due to my crazy work schedule at that time.

I've added the log totals for the last two seasons. For you Tony, I'm guesstimating the powder verts. I've just estimated my verts for this year's 8 race nights.

Patrick 2006-07: 54 days, 584K vertical, 131K powder***
Patrick 2007-08: 57 days (so far), 698K vertical, 215K powder***:shock:

I'm surprised (because I've never looked or care in counting powder verts) when I compare to Admin or yourself, however not all numbers are created equal and I'm sure that your quality of powder vert is better than mine.

Before you start shooting them numbers down, I'm using River's 6 inches as reference point. I also have the individual numbers broken down if you want them. :wink:

Other note: I've tracked up some pretty big verts days on storm days this year + that trip out West.

Did some storm chasing last season too...In 2005-06, didn't ski much powder in the East that year, so a good part of those numbers would have been in 6 days in Wyoming/Utah.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I'm not sure the distinction in powder vertical is necessarily the 6 inches. It's more that even on the best of lift served powder days no more than about 75% of the total vertical is actually in powder. That would be March 21, 1991 at Baldy (27/22) in my case.

Take that January 29, 2006 day at Jackson for example. Every time up the Bridger gondola, there's run over to Thunder, maybe another from Thunder to Sublette, often runouts at the bottom of the hill. As good as that day was, I only counted 12K out of 31K total as being powder. The previous day during the storm was a higher percentage (21/11) though the snow was not quite as deep.

More recently Castle Mt. Feb. 8, 2008. Absolutely no competition all day long on a hill that's mostly fall line skiing. But there's still some traversing at the top, and on the southern side a catch trail of 500-1,000 vertical to bring you back to the base. So 30/20 for that one.

A big powder day at a place I know well like Mammoth or Alta/Snowbird is typically in the 70% range in the morning but less than 50% after lunch when you have to go hunting for the less obvious stashes.

It doesn't work that way for admin, because he often comes up to Alta and cherry picks the optimum 3-4 hours and then goes home. His reports for 2006-07 were sufficiently detailed that I thought I could make decent powder estimates for them by the same standards as my own.

I went through Patrick's 2005-06 list and checked FTO reports where I wasn't sure, in order to estimate that 79K. Therefore 131K for 2006-07 implies a more lenient standard of measure based upon what I know of that season and where Patrick skied. The large proportional increase in 2007-08 makes sense in view of the record snow season on Patrick's home turf.

 

[Patrick]

I'm not sure the distinction in powder vertical is necessarily the 6 inches. It's more that even on the best of lift served powder days no more than about 75% of the total vertical is actually in powder.

Well, I can assure you that I've had days of 95-100%. The eventually non-powder runouts don't represent much vertical.

Take that January 29, 2006 day at Jackson for example. Every time up the Bridger gondola, there's run over to Thunder, maybe another from Thunder to Sublette, often runouts at the bottom of the hill. As good as that day was, I only counted 12K out of 31K total as being powder.

Well, I believe that I only took the Bridger gondola twice and I found the powder (thigh deep in some places) on that first run to Thunder. And went back for more. Powder on that last run with the Tram.

Therefore 131K for 2006-07 implies a more lenient standard of measure based upon what I know of that season and where Patrick skied.

Maybe, maybe not. :-k I find that measure totally subjective. 2006-07 was a great year in the East.

Date - Place -Where -Who - Vert (meters) Powder Guesstimate
Ma, 30 Jan 07 Mad River Glen luc, alex 6317 / 1000
Je, 15 Fev 07 Smugglers' luc, Hamdog 3863 / 3863
Ve, 16 Fev 07 Mad River Glen luc 5507 / 5507
Lu, 12 Mar 07 Mad River Glen morgane, caro 3728 /1000
Ma, 13 Mar 07 Mad River Glen morgane, caro 4157 / 0
Sa, 17 Mar 07 Edelweiss master 3000 / 500
Sa, 7 Avr 07 Mad River Glen nm 5251 / 5251
Di, 8 Avr 07 Mad River Glen nm, river 5488 /4500
Lu, 9 Avr 07 Tremblant morgane, nm 4844 / 2500
Di, 15 Avr 07 Whiteface morgane, luc, nm, eric 6642 / 6642
Ma, 4 Sep 07 Termas de Chillan Andy, Brendan 4935/ 4935
Me, 5 Sep 07 Termas de Chillan Andy, Brendan 3519 /3519
57251 /39217

Of course, I did a quick estimation over one year later. I didn't count some days and counted others. 2006-07 powder vert are mainly based on these big days. If you look at TRs from Powderfreak and salida, they know where to find the goods. Well, Lucky and I are pretty also. I've added both days of my Spring Break at Mad, we would have been able to find 3K of fresh tracks on those days.

I didn't add that master race in the middle of the Valentine' Day storm as I didn't ski really ski it, but got my days worth the next two days.

 

[icelanticskier]

I'm not sure the distinction in powder vertical is necessarily the 6 inches. It's more that even on the best of lift served powder days no more than about 75% of the total vertical is actually in powder. That would be March 21, 1991 at Baldy (27/22) in my case.

wow, that's sad. i can think of quite a few days out here this winter where i never even crossed a track inbounds on well over 6'" pow days and one was sunapee on march 29th, another sunday river feb 13th and two more at burke and so on. that's 100%.
rog

 

[Marc_C]

I'm not sure the distinction in powder vertical is necessarily the 6 inches. It's more that even on the best of lift served powder days no more than about 75% of the total vertical is actually in powder. That would be March 21, 1991 at Baldy (27/22) in my case.

wow, that's sad. i can think of quite a few days out here this winter where i never even crossed a track inbounds on well over 6'" pow days and one was sunapee on march 29th, another sunday river feb 13th and two more at burke and so on. that's 100%.
rog

What I think is sad is that people can over analyze their ski days to the point that they can argue about exactly how much of a given day is actually a powder day.

If that's fun for them, so be it - who am I to say? It just seems so much the antithesis of having fun skiing.

 

[Tony Crocker]

We obviously have different standards here. I have little doubt that Patrick would have called last Feb. 8 at Castle 100%. I do not buy that you can get off every lift, ski into continuous untracked and emerge into the liftline of the next chair all day long. There are a few runs like that, but they are obvious and don't stay untracked long. Even during a full-on blizzard like Northstar Jan. 8, 2005 (22/15). And the better powder areas like Alta (by general consensus of most on FTO) are good for powder precisely because they are expansive and there numerous skiable lines that are not next to the lifts and require some work or insider knowledge to access.

The eventually non-powder runouts don't represent much vertical.

I've measured a few of them with the altimeter watch. If they are any distance from the lift 1/4 of the vertical is fairly common. Put in a long traverse from the top and you can sometimes lose another 1/4. None of this takes away from the quality argument. Most of us would prefer the 1/2 vertical untracked vs. the more direct line that's been chopped up. This is what you get on a typical admin tour at Alta and most of us are delighted.

MarcC is correct that it's a subjective estimate. I'm not going to persuade many that mine is the right way. I think most people looking back say "That was a powder day," or remember a handful that were exceptional. In terms of lack of competition Baldy in 1991 and Castle last February were conspicuously the best in my lift served experience. I can also say that I've had a few in the cat or heli that really are 90+% and I do see a difference vs. lift service.

 

[Harvey]

To me this discussion is humorous. While I realize some are still in-season, it has that off-season itchy feel to it. Anyone count uphill powder vertical? I do.

Maybe someone will invent skis that constant evaluate the surface and count powder vertical, making adjustments for runouts, crossing other lines, getting air etc.

I'm with Marc C... I'll stick with...Jan 1 was a great day....it snowed all day and it sure was fun. But also like Marc - live and let live.

 

[Patrick]

What I think is sad is that people can over analyze their ski days to the point that they can argue about exactly how much of a given day is actually a powder day.

First off, I totally agree with your statement. I've never kept track of powder vertical and will never do it. Even simple vertical skied in one entire season is somewhat irrelevant and a stat that I don't care much about. The stat that I've keep track is days/night/where.

When arguing with Tony, you cannot simply rely on qualitative data, you have to fight using his own tools, this is what he knows best. Who can blame him, he's a mathematician after all. :wink: Without numbers, he will never believe or take the statements made seriously without the backing of some solid quantitative data.

Especially when it's on term that I can actually get some good skiing from a Hell hole like Ottawa. :lol: For anyone that has read FTO for a while would know, Tony is a specialist at second guessing and questioning my choices. He doesn't believe the written words or MY written words that skiing is real good for my perspective. How can that be possible? :wink: He doesn't want to believe it. For this purpose ONLY, I've revisited my logs files for the Suunto records for the last two seasons and guesstimated my powder vertical.

I do not buy that you can get off every lift, ski into continuous untracked and emerge into the liftline of the next chair all day long.

Well, icelandic and I agree that it is possible in certains circumstances. And I'm not talking about places out West like Shames or Smithers when you can find untracked powder days after a storm.

Look carefully at 5 of those days I mentioned (I didn't mention 100% for one of the MRG days). Those were 5 epic storm days. Untracked all days and refilled by the plunking and/or blowing snow.

It's funny...I just noticed that one that first TR, I've mentioned something to Tony.

The total for the day are low, but...there was a bit of off-piste skiing in 3 of the total 7 runs. Total vertical: 3863m - yeah Tony, these are entirely Powder vertical meters.

Inside that link is another TR link from Hamdog's perspective (in case my statements are questioned). Note: this was the biggest storm of the year. Midweek Vermont where it was cold and not recommended to be on the road. Two days as semi-locals which know some of the local secrets (Lucky at Smuggs and myself at MRG).

February 16-17, 07 - Smuggs and MRG

Here are my other two days, April weekend this time. I was being conservative, I didn't put 100% powder for both days. Reports are by Riverc0il. So you can't say I'm being bias?

April 7, 07 - MRG

April 8, 07 - MRG

Here is another storm the following weekend on a desert Whiteface mountain. Untracked snow top-to-bottom, all day long? You bet!!!

April 15, 07 - Whiteface

If there is anything about my year's totals, I might have uncounted my season. Whatever...it's not important. :twisted:

BTW...not that they keep tracks of their verts (let alone powder vert), but I'm sure that Salida and GPetrics would easily be over 1.500K verts this season in the East. If you add what they did in powder, it would be seen as a STATISTICAL ERROR having been done in the East (or mostly). Ah yes, I believe G is also mathematician.

The only way to really find out is to live ONE entire season in the East as an Easterner, living somewhere between northern NE states and Southern Quebec or Eastern Ontario. :wink: It's like skiing with Bob Peters at Jackson, when you have local knowledge, you can find powder stash and hit the places right and when. :wink: Maybe you could retire here for a few seasons? :lol:

Good worry, this is all in good fun and I go enjoy skiing with Tony. :wink:

I'd like to finish with a quote of great wisdom from my friend Harvey.

I'm with Marc C... I'll stick with...Jan 1 was a great day....it snowed all day and it sure was fun. But also like Marc - live and let live.

 

[Tony Crocker]

boot to knee deep untracked was still plentiful, albeit slightly harder to find than the previous days, and lines were shorter and less often. The general rule was lots of loose powder everywhere with occasional patches of day old untracked on the sides.

I've had quite a few of these kind of days. They are more like 50% than 80%.

Slide #2 is narrower than the wideopen #1 and pretty bumped up. Loose powder and bumps. Once you merged with Slide #1 toward the bottom, you have to negotiate a series cliffs/frozen or melting waterfalls. Stopping in the middle of these and looking up, you realise that this is pretty unique terrain for a lift-serviced stuff.

Great skiing by anyone's standard, but far from 100% powder.

Rereading those reports from 4/7, 4/8 and 4/15 of 2007 was quite helpful in getting a feel for the difference in standards. 4/7 sounds like close to a powder maximum lift served day of around 80% while the other two are closer to 50%.

When arguing with Tony, you cannot simply rely on qualitative data, you have to fight using his own tools, this is what he knows best. Who can blame him, he's a mathematician after all. Without numbers, he will never believe or take the statements made seriously without the backing of some solid quantitative data.

I've always been quite outspoken that evaluation of skiing requires both qualitative and quantitative inputs. Thus I share Patrick's passion to experience a wide range of skiing all over the world. I'm ahead of him on this count now, but was not when I was his age.

It's like skiing with Bob Peters at Jackson, when you have local knowledge, you can find powder stash and hit the places right and when.

I recall asking Patrick after the 2 hours of "bits and pieces" skiing during that storm with Bob how much of it was powder, and Patrick replied, "80%." I think that afternoon was a good example of the maximum powder percentage that can be achieved in lift service.

BTW...not that they keep tracks of their verts (let alone powder vert), but I'm sure that Salida and GPetrics would easily be over 1.500K verts this season in the East. If you add what they did in powder, it would be seen as a STATISTICAL ERROR having been done in the East (or mostly).

No. Like icelantic and Riverc0il, these guys have almost total schedule flexibility, which I've always argued is the most important factor in a high powder percentage.

The only way to really find out is to live ONE entire season in the East as an Easterner, living somewhere between northern NE states and Southern Quebec or Eastern Ontario

Shouldn't be much different in terms of powder than living within day commute distance in any other region with similar natural snowfall incidence, such as Front Range Colorado. How much powder one gets will be based mostly on factors like flexibility and willingness to take to the backcountry when the resorts are skied out, like icelantic, mapadu, etc.

Perhaps Patrick is trying to combine the above arguments, saying that some of these skiers have intimate local knowledge of multiple areas and are thus able to choose the right one, increasing their odds some. This is a valid argument comparing to me personally, since Baldy is really the only SoCal area with good powder potential, and I would agree that a Mammoth skier is likely to get less powder than his counterpart 100 miles north with multiple areas to choose from.

Returning to the original question. I do not consider my own record in powder that impressive, which is why I've been willing to spend the $$$ to improve it. So I would expect well-situated and more flexible FTO skiers to have far more of the high percentage days like the ones I had at Baldy and Castle. But is there something unique about eastern topography that makes those days 90-100% instead of 70-80%? That's a tough argument to make, especially since eastern ski areas generally have higher rather than lower skier density.

Especially when it's on term that I can actually get some good skiing from a Hell hole like Ottawa.

Patrick is correct that I've never seen these areas. But I'm certainly skeptical. I've at least seen the topography of some of the consensus elite eastern areas (Stowe, Jay, MRG). Once you reduce average pitch to the Stoneham/Okemo/Big Bear level, it can become marginal for skiing untracked snow. And once you reduce average snowfall much under 200 inches, the percentage of days with 6+ new becomes miniscule. I'm sure Patrick took full advantage of the exceptional snow close to home in 2007-08.

 

[Geoff]

What I think is sad is that people can over analyze their ski days to the point that they can argue about exactly how much of a given day is actually a powder day.

If that's fun for them, so be it - who am I to say? It just seems so much the antithesis of having fun skiing.

Amen. I was once given an altimeter watch. I never used it. I'm a recreational skier. I just like being out there having a good time. I keep an informal journal but that's mostly to jog my memory to recall the pleasant times. I ski every chance I get. Some days, the conditions are good. Some days, the conditions suck. On the suck condition days, I'm still outside in the fresh air getting some exercise and enjoying myself with my friends.

 

[Patrick]

It's like skiing with Bob Peters at Jackson, when you have local knowledge, you can find powder stash and hit the places right and when.

I recall asking Patrick after the 2 hours of "bits and pieces" skiing during that storm with Bob how much of it was powder, and Patrick replied, "80%." I think that afternoon was a good example of the maximum powder percentage that can be achieved in lift service.

I personally believe the last day at Jackson was better (in my case) in term of ratio and qualitative quality, however we're talking 3 seasons ago...so I might be mistaken.

Rereading those reports from 4/7, 4/8 and 4/15 of 2007 was quite helpful in getting a feel for the difference in standards. 4/7 sounds like close to a powder maximum lift served day of around 80% while the other two are closer to 50%..

[-X :-({|= ](*,)

No they weren't. If I gave you 80% at Jackson Hole, I know that these were superior in term of untracked stuff. Competition for untracked powder is greater when the places is full of powderhounds and you have some high capacity lifts. Both April days at MRG were extremely close to 100%. I didn't ski with River on day one, but you can judge from the pictures (links below). Pics from day 2 were taken later in the day before it started pukking again and a place not as deep as other spots we skied that day. Regardless I quickly wrote down 9.7k out 10.7k meters for those two days. It's probably easy to shotdown the 100% of some of these days, but I've put 0% on the rest of my season's numbers.

LINK - thesnowway.com pics from MRG on April 7

LINK - thesnowway.com pics from MRG on April 8


Comment regarding the narrow spot on Slide #2 on April 15th. Sure, it's wasn't going entirely untracked, we're talking one narrow line down, but there a ton of loose snow. It snowed one foot of snow during that day...it's wasn't hard to find untracked stuff where there you're confirm to a single line due to terrain.

I have to concede that those two Termas days were probably on average 75-80%, first day being less due to traversing.

But that isn't the question? This is...

Therefore 131K for 2006-07 implies a more lenient standard of measure based upon what I know of that season and where Patrick skied.

You were sceptical about the close to 66% increase in Powder vert in 2006-07 WITHOUT a ski trip out West. I might have rounded the corner on individual days, but I believe that this would be fairly accurate.

BTW...not that they keep tracks of their verts (let alone powder vert), but I'm sure that Salida and GPetrics would easily be over 1.500K verts this season in the East. If you add what they did in powder, it would be seen as a STATISTICAL ERROR having been done in the East (or mostly).

No. Like icelantic and Riverc0il, these guys have almost total schedule flexibility, which I've always argued is the most important factor is a high powder percentage..

I might be wrong here, River isn't in that same category as Salida, G or Ice and doesn't have that much flexibility I believe. These guys are somewhere in 100-170 days range this season. River probably as a better ratio, but he's probably nowhere close to rank those numbers (powder or not). I personally prefer overall numbers than percentage. This isn't a powder =1; other = 0 equation. I've had powder=other days also, apples and oranges.

The only way to really find out is to live ONE entire season in the East as an Easterner, living somewhere between northern NE states and Southern Quebec or Eastern Ontario

Shouldn't be much different in terms of powder than living within day commute distance in any other region with similar natural snowfall incidence, such as Front Range Colorado. How much powder one gets will be based mostly on factors like flexibility and willingness to take to the backcountry when the resorts are skied out, like icelantic, mapadu, etc.

Agree. But living here for a few seasons would give you a sense that, if you're willing to go for it, you might understand more our Eastern point of view. East isn't inferior...it's simply different. Reports from Powderfreak, Salida & Gpetrics, Icelandic and River are not "statistical errors" and can be found if you know when to do and where. Can you see a different between Admin's report and those? I can't.

But is there something unique about eastern topography that makes those days 90-100% instead of 70-80%? That's a tough argument to make, especially since eastern ski areas generally have higher rather than lower skier density.

Andes and Europe...people stays on trails, preferably groomed ones. They also stay away when the weather is "bad" (snow = bad for most folks). Do to a place with a few low old capacity lifts and pretty of woods and steep = 90-100%.

Especially when it's on term that I can actually get some good skiing from a Hell hole like Ottawa.

Patrick is correct that I've never seen these areas.

I didn't say I was uniquely skiing local did I??? How far is LA from Mammoth? How far is Ottawa from Whiteface, Jay, Smuggs, Stowe, MRG? I'm talking about MY skiing and where I ski? As you can see (regardless of the actual number), I do get my fair share of powder and other stuff in one season. Yes, I do have some flexibility, however it doesn't include an endless pit of vacation days. I ski a lot of days at mole hills, much more now with kids skiing than before, but I also ski more in general now than I have ever have.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Go to a place with a few low old capacity lifts and plenty of woods and steep = 90-100%.

Sounds like a perfect description of Baldy and Castle to me. And Powder Mt. is the only place I've seen that compares to Castle in terms of skiable acreage relative to lift capacity and skier density. I'm sure admin will agree on this point.

This isn't a powder =1; other = 0 equation.

Yes, it's an estimate, and as the snow gets chopped up there are definitely gray areas. The value of the powder measurement to me is mainly in personal comparisons of past powder days to more recent ones. I do have narrative notes as well so I can recall snow quality, how much fresh powder etc.

You were skeptical about the close to 66% increase in Powder vert in 2006-07 WITHOUT a ski trip out West. I might have rounded the corner on individual days, but I believe that this would be fairly accurate.

Not because of the East vs. West, but because I knew that the eastern powder in 2006-07 was concentrated in time, while Patrick's ski days are spread over the season with not much flexibility. The disagreement is purely due to standards of measurement, and after reading reports I'd guess that something like a 70% factor on Patrick's count would make the standards similar. That would still make 2006-07 > 2005-06.

Can you see a different between Admin's report and those? I can't.

Admin is somewhat limited in vacation time and thus most of his skiing is on weekends. No one could get close to his numbers with his schedule anywhere else IMHO. What kind of results do you think someone like BobbyD gets?

Andes and Europe...people stays on trails, preferably groomed ones. They also stay away when the weather is "bad"

Agreed. If nearly all the terrain is above timberline, your skiing during storms is going be severely restricted and you'll miss some of the best powder. But you may get it back later on when it's still there off-piste after it would be long gone in smaller North American areas.

 

[skibum4ever]

Gentlemen, this discussion is amazing . . . I don't even seem to have the time to read and understand your data, and I'm retired! How do you find the time to track, analyze, report, and argue over these statistics?

I'm with Geoff, we track ski days and vertical feet and that's enough for us! I personally track my own day and vert count on the days when Randy doesn't ski; a day we ski together defaults to his vertical count even if one of us (more often me!) has missed a couple of runs. For some reason I have 4 extra days this winter.

Once Tony retires, I expect even more detailed reporting, although I can only guess at what additional stats he would need to keep track of!