schubwa
New member
I'm sad to announce the retirement of George Taylor, who was State Climatologist for Oregon and headed up my favorite weather site, Oregon Climate Service. His forecasts were always entertaining if not downright accurate.
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html
OCS no longer provides a winter forecast. I'm feeling a little abandoned, and so have to rely on some other sources. If you guys see any long range forecasts be sure to post them for us weather weenies. I like the NWAC site for shorter range stuff, but their forecast area stops at Mt Hood, close but not quite.
http://www.nwac.us/
I always look at the Dweeb site from Mammoth, authored by a local Realtor named Howard Scheckter. Mammoth is my skiing Alma Mater, so I always like to keep tabs on how they're doing, just out of curiosity or for trip planning reasons. Howard really gets into it and this is the kind of weather "wisdom" I'm talking about. He hasn't posted his winter outlook yet but did mention some weather possibilities through October. Most of you guys are downstream of us and not that close to OMO (our mother ocean) so I thought you might be interested in what (might be) happening out here on the western fringe... Here they are:
"FOR MAMMOTH....WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US TODAY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH WEEKS END.....AT THE SAMETIME, THE PACIFIC JET GROWS EVER SO STRONGER, TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SOME REAL POWERHOUSE'S EXPECTED FOR BC,CANADA AND WASHINGTON STATE THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.. WILL WINTER SETTLE INTO MAMMOTH THE 2ND HALF OF OCTOBER?"
A STRONG PACIFIC JET SLAMS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.....WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO GET INTO NORTHERN CA ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OR JUST AFTER.....IT MAY BRING THE FIRST REAL DUSTING TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, LATER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME....THE PRECIP WITH THIS NEW WX TYPE/PATTERN APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY AREA....
OUTLOOK:
THE ROAR OF THE PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE BC, COAST. A STRONG ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE IN THE MEAN WILL SET UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ACTION WITH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH WIND EXPECTED.
Here's more:
ED'S BEST GUESS THE NEXT 3 TO 4 WEEKS:
For North America, I like phases 8-1 of the GWO snr composite anomaly 250mb psi and 2m air temperature depictions for week-1, then plots 4-5 for ~week-2. Synoptically this translates to a North Pacific Ocean jet extension after next week leading to ridging across the western USA. A return to phases 8-1 is possible weeks 3-4, ((((but perhaps with troughs extending farther south across the western and central portions of the country.))) Weather ramifications should be understood. There is no change in my thinking going into boreal winter.
THE DWEEBS TAKE ON THIS IS THAT AFTER THE STRONG PACIFIC JET SLAMS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER, WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS WILL IN TURN BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPER TROFING SLAMMING THE WEST COAST, ABOUT OR JUST AFTER THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER.
http://izotz.com/dweebreport/
Enjoy!
http://www.ocs.oregonstate.edu/index.html
OCS no longer provides a winter forecast. I'm feeling a little abandoned, and so have to rely on some other sources. If you guys see any long range forecasts be sure to post them for us weather weenies. I like the NWAC site for shorter range stuff, but their forecast area stops at Mt Hood, close but not quite.
http://www.nwac.us/
I always look at the Dweeb site from Mammoth, authored by a local Realtor named Howard Scheckter. Mammoth is my skiing Alma Mater, so I always like to keep tabs on how they're doing, just out of curiosity or for trip planning reasons. Howard really gets into it and this is the kind of weather "wisdom" I'm talking about. He hasn't posted his winter outlook yet but did mention some weather possibilities through October. Most of you guys are downstream of us and not that close to OMO (our mother ocean) so I thought you might be interested in what (might be) happening out here on the western fringe... Here they are:
"FOR MAMMOTH....WARMER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR US TODAY WEDNESDAY AND TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE LOW 70S THROUGH WEEKS END.....AT THE SAMETIME, THE PACIFIC JET GROWS EVER SO STRONGER, TAKING AIM ON THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WITH SOME REAL POWERHOUSE'S EXPECTED FOR BC,CANADA AND WASHINGTON STATE THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER.. WILL WINTER SETTLE INTO MAMMOTH THE 2ND HALF OF OCTOBER?"
A STRONG PACIFIC JET SLAMS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.....WITH SOME SUGGESTION THAT IT WILL BE DEEP ENOUGH TO GET INTO NORTHERN CA ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK OR JUST AFTER.....IT MAY BRING THE FIRST REAL DUSTING TO THE NORTHERN SIERRA, LATER NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME....THE PRECIP WITH THIS NEW WX TYPE/PATTERN APPEARS TO STAY WELL NORTH OF THE SOUTHERN MONO COUNTY AREA....
OUTLOOK:
THE ROAR OF THE PACIFIC JET WILL BEGIN THE FIRST WEEK OF OCTOBER FOR MAINLY LOCATIONS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE BC, COAST. A STRONG ANOMALOUSLY DEEP LONG WAVE IN THE MEAN WILL SET UP IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CA SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE ACTION WITH COOLER WEATHER ALONG WITH WIND EXPECTED.
Here's more:
ED'S BEST GUESS THE NEXT 3 TO 4 WEEKS:
For North America, I like phases 8-1 of the GWO snr composite anomaly 250mb psi and 2m air temperature depictions for week-1, then plots 4-5 for ~week-2. Synoptically this translates to a North Pacific Ocean jet extension after next week leading to ridging across the western USA. A return to phases 8-1 is possible weeks 3-4, ((((but perhaps with troughs extending farther south across the western and central portions of the country.))) Weather ramifications should be understood. There is no change in my thinking going into boreal winter.
THE DWEEBS TAKE ON THIS IS THAT AFTER THE STRONG PACIFIC JET SLAMS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER, WITH UPPER RIDGING WILL FOLLOW THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. THIS WILL IN TURN BE FOLLOWED BY DEEPER TROFING SLAMMING THE WEST COAST, ABOUT OR JUST AFTER THE MIDDLE OF OCTOBER.
http://izotz.com/dweebreport/
Enjoy!
