jamesdeluxe":1d9hfxe6 said:
Sez the guy who books a family trip to Bachelor at Xmas!
That's one of the safer bets in terms of both having adequate early season snow and minimizing holiday price gouging. But I recall jason going to the Alps at Christmas also, which can be a fail on both counts. Zermatt may have had snow but it was mostly manmade on-piste, a mere fraction of its potential later in the season.
kingslug":1d9hfxe6 said:
...mediocre conditions, more like 200 hundred miles of flat groomers....
If that's what kinglug thought of Solden, I can't imagine why he's taking a
second trip to Valle Nevado, especially booked before there is snow on the ground.
jasoncapecod":1d9hfxe6 said:
The above is a prime example why one must have a plan B...Either the ability to cancel or divert with out taking a major financial hit. Too much money is a stake to ski crap conditions or deal with crap weather.. Weather forecasting good enough a week out, to know what your are getting yourself into..
I endorse this sentiment, but it's a whole lot easier to delay as long as possible in pulling the trigger than try to get out of a commitment you have already made. Thus the prime advice for South America: don't book until there's some snow on the ground with the demonstrated sketchy history of the past 7 years.
South America doesn't have lot of wiggle room once you have committed. Las Lenas is at the ends of the earth, you have to go Saturday to Saturday both for hotel bookings and that's when the flights or overnight buses from Buenos Aires operate. Staley was headed into a total debacle at Las Lenas in 2014, cut the potential losses by spending his first week in Buenos Aires, then got lucky with a big storm right before his second week.
Bariloche is a real town where you can probably score lodging on short notice but it's still a flight or long overnight bus from Buenos Aires. And Bariloche's snow reliability is probably worse than the US Northeast.
Chile has somewhat more flexibility. You can rent a car and choose among Portillo, Valle Nevado and Chillan. But there are still pitfalls. Portillo has just the one hotel that often sells out, so if you want to be flexible you're probably commuting from Los Andes. Portillo and Valle Nevado are not that far apart and thus have the same good and bad years. Chillan has the best track record in South America, but even it had an awful year in 2016 with maybe two weeks in mid-August of decent skiing.
When Richard, Adam and I went to Chile in 2007, it was through a Chilean tour operator and included a private van and driver. We met Patrick in Portillo and he had just come from two powder days in Chillan. We were going halfway there for Colchagua Valley wine on the trip anyway and so asked for our other ski days to be moved from Valle Nevado to Chillan. But even in this scenario we couldn't get out of the hotel reservation in Valle Nevado.
jamesdeluxe":1d9hfxe6 said:
If my eastern Switzerland trip hadn't been canceled by passport issues, I may have been dealing with similar conditions after a multi-week drought.
James' strategy of hitting the under-the-radar areas in Europe ought to be ideal for flexibility. Surely these are the kind of places where you can score last minute lodging, so why not just book the air to Geneva or Zurich and a car far in advance, then choose the destination later based upon snow?
In our case this year, I wanted to show Liz the Arlberg, and you aren't going to get into the Sandhof in Lech if you don't reserve a full week by October. Two weeks ahead we were looking at the nearly bare ground disaster scenario, though we had only paid a deposit and could have walked away losing just $700. But at least we were going to a high snowfall area, and it was probably not entirely a coincidence that when there were finally a couple of January storms, the Arlberg was the region that got the most snow. The remaining destinations over the next two weeks were booked on short notice based upon weather forecasts.
Returning to the fundamental advice here:
jasoncapecod":1d9hfxe6 said:
The above is a prime example why one must have a plan B...Either the ability to cancel or divert with out taking a major financial hit. Too much money is a stake to ski crap conditions or deal with crap weather.. Weather forecasting good enough a week out, to know what your are getting yourself into..
What fraction of destination skiers have a plan B? I'll bet less than 5%. It took much exhortation on these boards to divert johnnash with his Epic Pass during 2012 when both I-70 Colorado and Tahoe were having disastrous skiing. To his credit he diverted much of his I-70 time to Wolf Creek and all of his Tahoe plans to Utah. But sadly most people are like the infamous GPaul and doggedly
jasoncapecod":1d9hfxe6 said:
charge head first into the sh%t storm
One core piece of advice here: when in doubt, have a rental car. New Zealand has erratic snow reliability, but there are lots of things to do there besides ski. On our first trips there, I in 1982 and Patrick last year hit poor ski seasons but spent well under half our time skiing and so still had enjoyable trips. Europe has lots of options too (see our Venice excursion this year) but if you don't have a car it's not so easy to take off and do something else when weather is unfavorable for skiing.
Just to demonstrate that I'm not being holier than thou here, I too have
jasoncapecod":1d9hfxe6 said:
charged head first into the sh%t storm
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