How much snow is enough?

[johnnash]

Question for you SLCers:

We're headed to SLC on our annual Christmas pilgrimage, and so I've been enthusiastically watching the recent reports of all the snow. But I'm somewhat dismayed that with all that snow, the resorts still aren't opening a lot of new terrain. I know there was a big drought in November. But when I look at Tony's December 21 snow report from last year and compare his season totals to those on the resort websites, most of the resorts look like they've got about as much snow now as they had at this time last year. Yet, I remember much more territory open when we visited last Christmas than they've got open now. What gives? Are they just waiting until Christmas to give us all a present? Or how much more snow is needed until they open areas like Mineral Basin, Honeycomb Canyon, Millicent, Great Western, Strawberry and John Paul (all of which were open last year I think)?

In any case, conditions will certainly beat the Washington DC area (although Snowshoe was pretty awesome when we hit it in prime condition 2 weekends ago !). I'm just trying to figure out how much to manage my expectations.

Thanks!

 

[Tony Crocker]

Last year was extreme in both directions. November was 2nd driest in my 42 years of data. But started December 1 it started dumping everywhere. LCC season-to-date is similar to last year at this time but BCC and Park City are much lower. And keep in mind that second half of December was way above average last year.

As far as Utah is concerned this year, the main feature is that the disparity between LCC and the rest of the state is a huge chasm. The early November storm was only in the Cottonwoods. If you compare my Dec. 1 and Dec. 15 reports you'll see that Alta has had 40 inches vs. 9 at Park City (which quotes from Jupiter, the very snowiest part of the area) this month. So the first piece of advice is stay in SLC, not Park City over the holiday period. There's also a disparity between LCC and BCC. The Solitude number, which is measured fairly high and the last 2 years has been similar to Snowbird's, is closer to Snowbasin's (73 vs. 68 season-to-date).

If current conditions persist, this is a recipe for big crowds in LCC over the holidays. Thankfully there's much more lift capacity now than the Christmas week 1986 when I was at Alta Peruvian.

The favorable reports you read here regularly from Alta ring true based upon my experience also. But they do not apply to other Utah areas during difficult early seasons.

 

[johnnash]

Re. your advice not to stay in Park City, no need to worry about that. I probably wouldn't want to anyway, but over Christmas break I'd have to take a second mortgage (if any bank is making those loans anymore)!

But I checked the numbers being reported on the websites, and they really look pretty similar to those from your Dec. 21 report last year. Brighton/ Solitude had 98 last year, compared to 103 for Brighton and 91 for Sol currently. Snowbasin had 75 last year compared to 74 now. "PC group" had 64 last year; PCMR is now reporting 38, and the Canyons 65. Hopefully the ongoing dump is helping the laggards play catchup.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I wouldn't trust that Canyons number any farther than I could throw it. There is no place within the boundaries of The Canyons that gets anywhere near the amount of snow as Jupiter Bowl.

I've ragged on Park City's reporting in the past, but I did get 25+ years of credible data (Jupiter and Summit House) from them last spring. So I now think the in-season reporting is OK, just as long as you remember it's from Jupiter. Adjust to long term averages of 390 Jupiter, 304 Summit House and 152 at the base and plan accordingly. Upper elevations at The Canyons and Deer Valley should be comparable to Summit House. Deer Valley has a snow preservation edge over the other 2 in terms of higher fraction of north facing terrain. This is important mid-February onwards, but not now.

Brighton and Solitude are still less than half open. But with the ongoing weather I would expect close to full operation by Christmas.

 

[Admin]

John, don't sweat it. Both Cottonwood Canyons are coming along nicely, and Snowbasin did well from an extra lake effect foot on Sunday that no one else got. Another storm Friday, another storm Monday.

I may make turns at PCMR and/or The Canyons tomorrow just to check things out. I'll certainly report back here. However, the Cottonwoods are skiing exceptionally well now.

I have to run out for a 7 pm dinner appointment, but when I get back I'll be prepping the news for tomorrow, then starting on the video from today. It will speak volumes I'm sure.

 

[Admin]

John, this morning's avalanche report may allay your concerns as well. In speaking about today's storm which is expected to drop 12-20 inches,

The extended forecast: This storm will seem like a baby compared to the next couple storms, one on Monday and Tuesday and the other the day after Christmas. We should have feet and feet of new snow by the weekend after Christmas.

 

[johnnash]

Thanks, Admin. You've allayed my concerns. I also note that some of the resorts are starting to open some good stuff. Brighton's got Great Western open (though still not Milly), Sol's got Honeycomb, and Snowbasin has John Paul. With those new storms rolling in, I guess there'll be a LOT more opening next week. I just hope we can get up the mountain to enjoy it!

 

[Tony Crocker]

This will be way better than my Christmas 1986 experience. All 4 Cottonwood resorts will be good, not just 2. And if Snowbasin is decent, that's always a good antidote for crowds. The recent reports form Park City and the Canyons do confirm the snow numbers. No reason IMHO for vacationing holiday skiers to waste their time there, unless a major dump makes its way to the Wasatch Back.

 

[Admin]

No reason IMHO for vacationing holiday skiers to waste their time there, unless a major dump makes its way to the Wasatch Back.

Fer chrissakes, have you looked at the bloody weather forecasts? We're getting slammed from a series of storms, beginning now with the first one that ought to leave 2 to 3 feet in its wake. It'll be a night-and-day difference by midweek. As I wrote above,

The extended forecast: This storm will seem like a baby compared to the next couple storms, one on Monday and Tuesday and the other the day after Christmas. We should have feet and feet of new snow by the weekend after Christmas.