powderfreak
New member
Ok. This one is sneaking up on and I know inquiring minds want to know
where the most snow will be. To be honest with you, I believe the NWS is
overdoing this system. I am not seeing any model guidence that indicates
heavy snow as far south as they show. For one, thicknesses will be a
little higher than I'd like. The atmosphere will be marginally cold with
temps at the surface in the middle 30's as precip moves in. 850mb temps
(5,000ft roughly) are going to be marginal with the freezing line right
along I89 as precip moves in. Currently the 850 freezing line is in
Canada. As the heaviest precip moves in, the column should cool enough
for all snow but it is still marginal in central Vermont. I'm seeing a
strong chance for sleet from the Mad River Valley southward. I do not
think freezing rain will be too much of an issue...temps will be hovering
around the freezing mark. This looks like a situation where in times of
heavy precip you are seeing snow and at times when its light or spotty you
are seeing light rain or ice pellets.
With that said...the models will likely trend southward with the system,
just a tad. The high pressure system is strong in southern Canada but the
air down here is not as dry as I would like it to be to really bring temps
down at the onset of precip. Look for rain/sleet pellets to fall during
the day tomorrow in the valley locations and southern Vermont...with snow
in the far north if precip makes it up there in the Stowe-Jay region.
Friday night we get some very strong Omega lift across the region. That
lift then moves into northern Vermont and parks there. What goes up, must
come down. This is where the coma head of the precip will likely be.
Central and Southern regions might become dry slotted with spotty
precipitation early on Saturday while the northern areas (in the coma
head) could be seeing banded snowfall with rates up to 2"/hr. On the ETA
60hr precip total there is a definite deformation band that could set up
from NE to SW across Northern New England. The 18z ETA has this
deformation band right up the Saint Lawerance River Valley down to western
NY and western PA. Within this axis there are liquid amounts of 2+ inches
which would be snow in the Saint Lawerence River Valley (Mount St Anne
anyone?). I believe this system will be a little further south and could
move this band into northern NY or VT (might be more wishful thinking but
this seasons trend would favor it). With the coma head, deformation axis
during Saturday , very strong lift, a colder temp profile (higher snow
ratios as well), and overall more precip, I feel the Bolton-Stowe-Smuggs-
Jay region will see 12-18 inches by Sunday morning with 6-12 Sugarbush-MRG zone. Also, in NY, the northern Adirondacks (Whiteface) would also be in the 12-18 inch zone...as well as northern NH and southeastern Maine. There should be a wide swath of 12+ inch snows near the Canadian border and all of the New England states...this band will also continue north and south of the border with the border being the center line. Start at Whiteface, NY...head across I89 in VT...across to Wildcat, NH...then up to Sunday River and Sugarloaf, ME. From that line northward is 12+ by Sunday morning. Enjoy.
That is my thinking right now. I still think the NWS might be a little
too high on snowfall in the major valleys (Champlain, CT River, ect) as
well as a little too gung ho on precip staying all snow in the Mad River
Valley region but we will see.
Enjoy it.
-Scott Braaten
where the most snow will be. To be honest with you, I believe the NWS is
overdoing this system. I am not seeing any model guidence that indicates
heavy snow as far south as they show. For one, thicknesses will be a
little higher than I'd like. The atmosphere will be marginally cold with
temps at the surface in the middle 30's as precip moves in. 850mb temps
(5,000ft roughly) are going to be marginal with the freezing line right
along I89 as precip moves in. Currently the 850 freezing line is in
Canada. As the heaviest precip moves in, the column should cool enough
for all snow but it is still marginal in central Vermont. I'm seeing a
strong chance for sleet from the Mad River Valley southward. I do not
think freezing rain will be too much of an issue...temps will be hovering
around the freezing mark. This looks like a situation where in times of
heavy precip you are seeing snow and at times when its light or spotty you
are seeing light rain or ice pellets.
With that said...the models will likely trend southward with the system,
just a tad. The high pressure system is strong in southern Canada but the
air down here is not as dry as I would like it to be to really bring temps
down at the onset of precip. Look for rain/sleet pellets to fall during
the day tomorrow in the valley locations and southern Vermont...with snow
in the far north if precip makes it up there in the Stowe-Jay region.
Friday night we get some very strong Omega lift across the region. That
lift then moves into northern Vermont and parks there. What goes up, must
come down. This is where the coma head of the precip will likely be.
Central and Southern regions might become dry slotted with spotty
precipitation early on Saturday while the northern areas (in the coma
head) could be seeing banded snowfall with rates up to 2"/hr. On the ETA
60hr precip total there is a definite deformation band that could set up
from NE to SW across Northern New England. The 18z ETA has this
deformation band right up the Saint Lawerance River Valley down to western
NY and western PA. Within this axis there are liquid amounts of 2+ inches
which would be snow in the Saint Lawerence River Valley (Mount St Anne
anyone?). I believe this system will be a little further south and could
move this band into northern NY or VT (might be more wishful thinking but
this seasons trend would favor it). With the coma head, deformation axis
during Saturday , very strong lift, a colder temp profile (higher snow
ratios as well), and overall more precip, I feel the Bolton-Stowe-Smuggs-
Jay region will see 12-18 inches by Sunday morning with 6-12 Sugarbush-MRG zone. Also, in NY, the northern Adirondacks (Whiteface) would also be in the 12-18 inch zone...as well as northern NH and southeastern Maine. There should be a wide swath of 12+ inch snows near the Canadian border and all of the New England states...this band will also continue north and south of the border with the border being the center line. Start at Whiteface, NY...head across I89 in VT...across to Wildcat, NH...then up to Sunday River and Sugarloaf, ME. From that line northward is 12+ by Sunday morning. Enjoy.
That is my thinking right now. I still think the NWS might be a little
too high on snowfall in the major valleys (Champlain, CT River, ect) as
well as a little too gung ho on precip staying all snow in the Mad River
Valley region but we will see.
Enjoy it.
-Scott Braaten
Driving pack to PA today and won't be back til january. Why couldn't I have finals next monday or something. Well folks enjoy it. The weather just hates me.
