Is there any hope left for SoCal this season?

Judz

Judz

New member
Just as winter seemed to have finally begin arriving last week, we are now enjoying temps in the 50's at the mountains, and no predicted snowfall untill arround the 18th. I know that anything can happen, but this season sure is depressing, and I was just wondering if there has been any seasons in the past that are simular to what we have experienced so far, ending with some big snowfall? I guess im just trying to keep the glass half full as we continue on with this season...but i sure would like something to look forward too.
 
As per the long range models (gfs) taken for what it's worth. Ridge forms on and just off the west coast. Stays there for the next 7-14days... that is the kiss of death ..sorry
 
Probably not.

The most noteworthy cases of big March snow in SoCal reviving a season were 1982 and 1991.

1981-82 had alternating wet and dry months: average (by ski area, add 30% for Baldy/Waterman, subtract 30% for Big Bear) snowfall 24 inches November, 3 December, 51 January, 0 February, 66 March, 18 April. What was noteworthy was that the February drought extended halfway through March, so SoCal skiing was on its last legs when the 6+ foot (at Baldy/Waterman) storm hit March 16-18.

1990-91 was even drier than this year to late February, then it snowed an average of 12 feet over the next 5 weeks.

I consider good natural snow skiing in SoCal to be icing on the cake and do not plan my seasons for it. In 40% of seasons Baldy does not have enough snow at any time for the lower chair runs to be skiable. Nonetheless this season is likely to be among the driest 10% of the 31 I've been skiing here. L.A. rainfall (currently 2.42 inches) has a decent chance of breaking its all time low (somewhere between 4 and 5 inches) set in 2001-02.
 
Yes it will water down some of the El Nino stats. Note the banner year in the PNW in particular. El Nino was similarly strong in 1986-87, which was even worse than this year in California.

The method of "let's draw a line and label certain years El Nino/La Nina" is somewhat flawed because:
1) Where do you draw the line, and
2) Shouldn't we weight the strength of the El Nino?

Thus I used monthly correlations to the MEI index on the page I put up last summer http://bestsnow.net/MEI_corr.htm as the means of identifying which areas are most sensitive. This isn't perfect either, because some areas might be sensitive to El Nino but neutral to la Nina or vice versa.
 
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