Mt Bachelor 11/28/06

[schubwa]

It was a pretty good set-up with 11" falling Monday with whiteout conditions in the PM. Add 6"+ overnight, with good visibilities = epic conditions. I rode my "Big Red" 168 Santa Cruz that's as wide as an aircraft carrier, and I needed every inch of floatation! Very high quality snow and at least knee deep with lots o' shots.

The area improved their snow/weather site, which reported a 61/75" base this morning (11/29) with 119" for the season so far. We're hoping for the Summit chair to open this Friday.

I rode with a skier couple from Alpine Meadows and they were stoked as season pass holders there get free passes here (Powdr Corp). We're hoping for lots of Sierra snow otherwise this X-mas is bound to be crowded.

 

[SoCal Rider]

It was a pretty good set-up with 11" falling Monday with whiteout conditions in the PM. Add 6"+ overnight, with good visibilities = epic conditions. I rode my "Big Red" 168 Santa Cruz that's as wide as an aircraft carrier, and I needed every inch of floatation! Very high quality snow and at least knee deep with lots o' shots.

The area improved their snow/weather site, which reported a 61/75" base this morning (11/29) with 119" for the season so far. We're hoping for the Summit chair to open this Friday.

I rode with a skier couple from Alpine Meadows and they were stoked as season pass holders there get free passes here (Powdr Corp). We're hoping for lots of Sierra snow otherwise this X-mas is bound to be crowded.

What size board do you ride in nonpowder conditions?

 

[schubwa]

Hey SoCal,

I ride a Option 162.5 Kevin Sansalone for most days here, in softer conditions up to 6" new. For firmer days (on those days I usually Alpine ski or Nordic) , I have a 160 Option Signature I really like.
My son, who works at Side Effect snowboard shop here talked me into buying a 158 Burton Malolo for the less deep days. They say you can ride that board 2-3 CM shorter than your regular ride. I'll report back to let you know how it goes.
I'm 5'8", 160 lbs and well into my 50's.
I got some new 32 Teams to go in my Mission Binders.

How is the snowmaking going down there? With the cold Santa Ana conditions you have the local resorts can really pump it out! I remember having a pass to Bear Mountain back in the early nineties and we had some of the best skiing in West. There were some dry seasons and Bear would be completely open with good hardpack.

 

[Tony Crocker]

It was too warm to even start snowmaking until Thanksgiving. While this week has been good for maybe 18+ hours a day of snowmaking they were starting from scratch. Snow Summit has about 15% of terrain and Bear Mt. less than 10%. At Bear the emphasis is upon building park features on the runs they have before opening more runs.

I've been observing this process for many years. The typical favorable scenario is a cold front that drops 3-6 inches at Big Bear but they get 3-5 days of nonstop snowmaking in the cold air behind the storm. Snow Summit will end up 60-70% open in that situation, my minimum standard for skiing there. The median earliest date my standards have been met over the past 15 years is Dec. 20. The 2 best years was it before Dec. 1 and the two worst years it was later than Jan. 1.

The small storm scenario is better than the Santa Anas because:
1. The storm creates a thin natural insulating base, so I think the snowmaking is more effective than when they start on bare ground.
2. The cold air behind the storm often means round-the-clock snowmaking for at least a couple of days. The Santa Anas just drive humidity way down, producing ideal snowmaking conditions at night, but there are probably a few midday hours that are too warm to make snow.

The other impressive point about Snow Summit/Bear Mt. is that once they get runs open, they rarely have to close them. A few nights of snowmaking per week with their huge lake-based water capacity is enough for maintenance. They only lose ground in an eastern-style rain deluge. Which is rare because Big Bear is very dry. It gets less than half the precipitation of the San Gabriel mountain areas in terms of either rain or snow.

I suspect I will be skiing at Big Bear before Mammoth this season.

 

[schubwa]

Tony,
You may not have to wait too much longer.
Check out today's Howard Scheckter(Mammoth)forecast:

DECEMBER 1 UPDATE:

THE PATTERN OF A RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ALL MODELS KEEPING OUR WEATHER FAIR THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY. A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN IS THEN FORECASTED TO DEVELOP OFF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST ON THE 8TH, AS FORECASTED BY THE 00Z FRIDAY GFS. THIS IS THE PATTERN CHANGE THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE ASIAN JET AND UPCOMING WET PATTERN FOR CALIFORNIA POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND.....NOTE: MODELS ARE OFTEN TIMES FAST WITH CHANGES.....IN MOST CASES, THE EL NINO FORCED PATTERN DOES NOT DEVELOP UNTIL JANUARY...SO IF IT DOES DEVELOP IN DECEMBER, THAT WOULD BE MORE UNUSUAL. NEXT WEEK I WILL HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THE TIMING IF INDEED IT IS TO BE EARLY......STAY TUNED!!!

UPDATE FROM WSFO-SFO AT 8:00PM 11-30-06

THE 10 TO FOURTEEN DAY FORECAST IS LOOKING A LOT MORE INTERESTING AND THERE IS SOME REASON TO BELIEVE THE MODELS IN ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO BREAK THROUGH AT OUR LATITUDE LEADING TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. CURRENTLY THERE IS A WEAK MJO TRYING TO PASS OVER THE COOLER THAN NORMAL SSTS OVER SOUTHEAST ASIA. THESE WATERS ARE COOLER BECAUSE OF THE ANOMALOUS WESTERLY WINDS THAT HAVE ALLOWED UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER TO OCCUR. THESE ANOMALOUS WESTERLIES ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CURRENT MODERATE EL NINO IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ONCE THE MJO CIRCULATION PASSES TO THE EAST IT WILL ENCOUNTER WARMER THAN NORMAL SSTS NEAR 150E TO 180W LONGITUDE. CONVECTION SHOULD REDEVELOP WITH THE IMPACTS BEING AN ENHANCEMENT OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET ALLOWING THE WESTERLIES TO PROGRESS FURTHER EAST THAN NORMAL THUS IMPACTING CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION THE IMPACTS OF THE MJO TAKE ABOUT 10 TO 14 DAYS TO ARRIVE IN CA. THIS PUTS THE ONSET OF WET WEATHER AT ABOUT THE 10TH OF DECEMBER. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN LINE WITH THE SECOND TROUGH SHOWN BY THE 18Z GFS TO ARRIVE AROUND THE 10TH AND 11TH WITH THE TROUGH ON THE 8TH ACTING ONLY TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SUBSTANTIALLY. ONCE THE PATTERN CHANGE OCCURS....WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER. PRAY THAT SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS AND ENSEMBLES SUPPORT THIS EVOLUTION.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I've seen that forecast. 10-14 day forecasts aren't worth much.

I've also seen another forecast showing during that week a massive storm coming ashore centered in Oregon with decreasing intensity as you go south. That would start things going in the Sierra but still be far from what's needed to salvage the holiday season.

The comment about past El Ninos tending to hit the Sierra hardest in the mid to late season is correct.

I would caution anyone about reading too much into these El Nino conclusions which are typically based upon about 7 seasons. When you look at what happened this November, adding this season into those studies is going water down many of those conclusions unless there is a dramatic reversal in weather during the upcoming months.