New Column...one more weekend western storm

I think we've been spoiled by January. There has never been more than 2-3 days between storms, and from reading Scott's report that may continue in your neck of the woods. But the wet/dry line that was right on the CO/UT vs. AZ/NM border in January looks to be moving north to where it was in December, with the PNW, Northern Rockies and Colorado from I-70 north continuing to have a great year, and western Canada continuing strong as in January. Sierra and Wasatch may get only occasional snow and the SW continues to be SOL. Supposedly La Nina has been confirmed, and if so Scott's forecast fits that pattern too. My season progress report http://bestsnow.net/seas06.htm is updated to Jan. 31 now.

Arizona Snowbowl's volatility is at its most extreme. 20 inches of snow in half a season at an area that got 460 last year. Amazing.
 
In the linked forecast said:
... After that it warms up and 5,000 ft temperatures could exceed 50F on the western slopes of the Cascades later next week as the freezing level goes towards 9,000ft. Temperatures in the interior will be cooler but still should run above normal under full sunshine by weeks end.
Click to expand...

Should I use this forecast as a prediction that Bachelor and other Oregon areas could develop hardpack?

Cheers,
Jeff
 
Pretty nice synopisis IMO. Is this going to be a regular report?

My only question is why nearly everyone in the climate/weather world started the La Nina talk after the fact. NWS in Socal has finally come into realization its happening..this after months of "poorer than normal" forecasts of predicting every front sliding down the coast to hold together longer than it acually did.

I realize this isn't a perfect science, and is difficult to forecast..just seems like I kinda saw this coming (a dry pattern for the SW with blocking high pressure and cooler than avg SST's in the La Nina prone area) back in December, and might have taken that into consideration before late January when everyone else came around. And of course, I'm not an expert, but I do know a decent amount about this stuff.. :P

On the good side of it, our friends in the PAC NW and central / northern Rockies deserve all the great snow that has been falling, and hope they enjoy it! :D



Disgruntled Socal snowlover... :lol:
 
The MEI table http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/people/klaus.wo ... table.html (according to Larry Schick best measure of El Nino / La Nina) turned positive to negative last fall, but the strength of the El Nino / La Nina is critical as to its influence on our weather. MEI is unfortunately published only with a time lag, but other sources may show La Nina reaching meaningful strength in January. Note that the La Nina strength in NOV/DEC 2005 was lower than the La Nina strength in JAN/FEB 2001, when SoCal's Mt. Baldy had the epic storm of 7 feet in 54 hours with snow levels as low as 3,000 feet.

So I would characterize the SW drought in the first half of this season as mostly a random event. However, it appears that the growing La Nina could entrench that drought for the rest of the season. While we're on the subject I would advice people to hold off booking anything for South America this summer, as La Nina is also bad news for those areas.
 
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