powderfreak
New member
From a problem on my end, I can't get this week's weather forecast column up, so I figured I would post it in here for now. Enjoy!
-Scott
Recent Heavy Snow in Parts of the West Gives Way to Fair Weather While a Quick Hitting Storm Brings Snow Followed by Cold, Dry Conditions to the East
The past two weeks have brought significant snowfall to parts of both the western and eastern United States. This weekend through most of next week, the continental United States will largely be dry and under the influence of high pressure. A fast moving storm system already affecting parts of the central Appalachians this evening will bring some needed snowfall to ski resorts in from West Virginia up through the Catskills and adjacent southern New England. Refer to the eastern U.S. regional forecast for accumulation details. Once that storm system slides off the Atlantic coast Friday night, the forecast for most of the United States is fairly straight forward through the middle of next week.
Snowfall totals at some western resorts over the past two weeks have been quite astounding. A moist Pacific flow allowed for heavy snow accumulations in the northwest, northern Rockies of Montana and Wyoming, Wasatch, and parts of Colorado. The usual suspects in the Tetons, Wasatch, and northern Colorado, which climatologically do very well early in the season, were hammered over the past two weeks. Grand Targhee has received over 100 inches since mid-November and the same goes for Utah?s perennial snowfall leaders, Alta and Snowbird. Steamboat, Colorado which does very well with strong northwest flows has observed one of its snowiest November?s ever and over 80? in the past two weeks. Colorado on average has received higher than normal snowfall with great conditions being reported from Breckenridge south to Crested Butte; both of those resorts have seen 50? or more since mid-November. Resorts further south and west have not been as fortunate. The Sierras from Lake Tahoe south to Mammoth have been experiencing the polar opposite from last year?s record winter so far. A couple storms have struck the Sierra but generally they have been only light to moderate snowfalls by Sierra standards.
Back east in New England, November was rather uneventful with mild conditions following October?s record snowfall. Snow and cold moved in during the last week of November to provide some much needed natural snow to compliment the snowmaking in New England. Things were starting to look up when mother nature threw a change up that resulted in a full thaw all the way into southeastern Canada right at the end of the month and at the start of meteorological winter (December 1st). Since then, most areas from West Virginia northward have seen a couple light snowfalls from weak systems and mountain enhanced snow showers, the exception to that being the northern Green Mountains which experienced a substantial upslope, orographically driven snowstorm last Friday. That upslope snowfall resulted in amounts from 6? at Killington to 18? in the northern areas of Stowe and Jay. Additional mountain snow showers since then have added up to another foot along the Green Mountain spine.
The current pattern is evolving into a +PNA/-NAO set-up with strong ridging developing off the Pacific coast and a trough in the east. This west coast ridge is going to bring dry conditions to pretty much the entire western half of the U.S. through at least the middle of next week. In the east, it appears as though a broad trough will settle in but the trough axis will be located back towards the Great Lakes region. This opens up the possibility of energy moving up the eastern seaboard late next week but in general, after tomorrow?s east coast system, the continental U.S. will be storm free for a week.
Regional Forecasts
Western United States
With a strong ridge developing just off the west coast, most of the western U.S. will remain high and dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal from the Sierra north to the Cascades as they are closest to the main ridge axis just off the coast. Temperatures will cool relative to normal as you head eastward away from the ridge axis resulting in near seasonal temperatures with large daily temperature swings in Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and Colorado. No true organized precipitation will occur and significant snowfall is unlikely through the period.
Eastern United States
A developing storm system will bring some snowfall to most eastern mountainous regions tomorrow. A low pressure system associated with a strong upper level low is moving northward through the Ohio Valley and will bring some heavy snowfall to the central Appalachians overnight. This low will track up towards western NY and transfer its energy southeastward to another low moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. This coastal low will become the main low pressure system tomorrow morning as it tracks from off the North Carolina coast to west of Cape Cod and then out to sea. The track of the coastal low will not allow northern New England to receive heavy snowfall but areas to the south will see a decent snowfall. I expect the heaviest snowfall to be along the Appalachian spine from WV to the Catskills of NY and then through the Berkshires and across northern MA. Snowfall amounts in those areas will be in the 8-12? range. Areas further north into the southern Adirondacks, the central and southern Green Mountains, and the southern White Mountains will receive 5-8?. Places north of a Gore Mountain, NY to Killington, VT to Sunday River, ME line will receive 2-5? with only 1-2? right along the immediate Canadian border. This will be a quick moving storm lasting at most 10 hours and snowfall rates tomorrow morning till early afternoon could briefly be very high (2-3?/hr) in the Catskills, Berkshires, southern VT, northern MA, and southern NH.
Seasonably cool air will follow the storm and since it is moving off the coast in a more eastward direction, high wind and bitter cold will not be dragged in behind the storm like after some nor?easters. A few bouts of mountain snow showers across the northern mountains will be about it through at least early next week after tomorrow?s system.
-Scott
Recent Heavy Snow in Parts of the West Gives Way to Fair Weather While a Quick Hitting Storm Brings Snow Followed by Cold, Dry Conditions to the East
The past two weeks have brought significant snowfall to parts of both the western and eastern United States. This weekend through most of next week, the continental United States will largely be dry and under the influence of high pressure. A fast moving storm system already affecting parts of the central Appalachians this evening will bring some needed snowfall to ski resorts in from West Virginia up through the Catskills and adjacent southern New England. Refer to the eastern U.S. regional forecast for accumulation details. Once that storm system slides off the Atlantic coast Friday night, the forecast for most of the United States is fairly straight forward through the middle of next week.
Snowfall totals at some western resorts over the past two weeks have been quite astounding. A moist Pacific flow allowed for heavy snow accumulations in the northwest, northern Rockies of Montana and Wyoming, Wasatch, and parts of Colorado. The usual suspects in the Tetons, Wasatch, and northern Colorado, which climatologically do very well early in the season, were hammered over the past two weeks. Grand Targhee has received over 100 inches since mid-November and the same goes for Utah?s perennial snowfall leaders, Alta and Snowbird. Steamboat, Colorado which does very well with strong northwest flows has observed one of its snowiest November?s ever and over 80? in the past two weeks. Colorado on average has received higher than normal snowfall with great conditions being reported from Breckenridge south to Crested Butte; both of those resorts have seen 50? or more since mid-November. Resorts further south and west have not been as fortunate. The Sierras from Lake Tahoe south to Mammoth have been experiencing the polar opposite from last year?s record winter so far. A couple storms have struck the Sierra but generally they have been only light to moderate snowfalls by Sierra standards.
Back east in New England, November was rather uneventful with mild conditions following October?s record snowfall. Snow and cold moved in during the last week of November to provide some much needed natural snow to compliment the snowmaking in New England. Things were starting to look up when mother nature threw a change up that resulted in a full thaw all the way into southeastern Canada right at the end of the month and at the start of meteorological winter (December 1st). Since then, most areas from West Virginia northward have seen a couple light snowfalls from weak systems and mountain enhanced snow showers, the exception to that being the northern Green Mountains which experienced a substantial upslope, orographically driven snowstorm last Friday. That upslope snowfall resulted in amounts from 6? at Killington to 18? in the northern areas of Stowe and Jay. Additional mountain snow showers since then have added up to another foot along the Green Mountain spine.
The current pattern is evolving into a +PNA/-NAO set-up with strong ridging developing off the Pacific coast and a trough in the east. This west coast ridge is going to bring dry conditions to pretty much the entire western half of the U.S. through at least the middle of next week. In the east, it appears as though a broad trough will settle in but the trough axis will be located back towards the Great Lakes region. This opens up the possibility of energy moving up the eastern seaboard late next week but in general, after tomorrow?s east coast system, the continental U.S. will be storm free for a week.
Regional Forecasts
Western United States
With a strong ridge developing just off the west coast, most of the western U.S. will remain high and dry through the middle of next week. Temperatures will be slightly above normal from the Sierra north to the Cascades as they are closest to the main ridge axis just off the coast. Temperatures will cool relative to normal as you head eastward away from the ridge axis resulting in near seasonal temperatures with large daily temperature swings in Utah, Wyoming, Montana, and Colorado. No true organized precipitation will occur and significant snowfall is unlikely through the period.
Eastern United States
A developing storm system will bring some snowfall to most eastern mountainous regions tomorrow. A low pressure system associated with a strong upper level low is moving northward through the Ohio Valley and will bring some heavy snowfall to the central Appalachians overnight. This low will track up towards western NY and transfer its energy southeastward to another low moving out of the Gulf of Mexico. This coastal low will become the main low pressure system tomorrow morning as it tracks from off the North Carolina coast to west of Cape Cod and then out to sea. The track of the coastal low will not allow northern New England to receive heavy snowfall but areas to the south will see a decent snowfall. I expect the heaviest snowfall to be along the Appalachian spine from WV to the Catskills of NY and then through the Berkshires and across northern MA. Snowfall amounts in those areas will be in the 8-12? range. Areas further north into the southern Adirondacks, the central and southern Green Mountains, and the southern White Mountains will receive 5-8?. Places north of a Gore Mountain, NY to Killington, VT to Sunday River, ME line will receive 2-5? with only 1-2? right along the immediate Canadian border. This will be a quick moving storm lasting at most 10 hours and snowfall rates tomorrow morning till early afternoon could briefly be very high (2-3?/hr) in the Catskills, Berkshires, southern VT, northern MA, and southern NH.
Seasonably cool air will follow the storm and since it is moving off the coast in a more eastward direction, high wind and bitter cold will not be dragged in behind the storm like after some nor?easters. A few bouts of mountain snow showers across the northern mountains will be about it through at least early next week after tomorrow?s system.
