NorthWest Season Summary

ChrisC

ChrisC

Well-known member
Thought this might be of interest to some - from Larry Schick NW weatherman/SkiWashington.com.


Hello Snowriders!

It?s time to call it a wrap for this snow season. Here?s a recap and a very optimistic look at next season.

The season started with a bang. Mountains of snow falling early and consistently. After we suffered through the early November ? Pineapple Express? and flooding, the snow just kept dumping in the Cascades, with moderate to low snow levels. I was blessed with seven powder days before the first of the year. Five of those were epic. Snow depths were 120% to almost 200% of normal by early January. And the best snow was yet to come.

We started this season with a threatening moderate El Nino. As you might recall, I said this would be ?no big deal? and it wasn?t. The El Nino climate signal is not that great for the Pacific Northwest, in my opinion. . Good news -next season may see a La Nina and that does have a strong signal ? a positive snow signal.

The exceptional early snow continued until early January. Then an unusual 4 week dry spell, right in the middle of winter. Toward the end of that spell the snow surface got a little firm. Then I noticed the computer weather maps showed a change. A two week epic snow pattern was developing.

I got busy cranking out one Powder Alert after another. This was some of the best, most consistent powder skiing throughout the Pacific NW in many years. Saturday Feb 24th, was one of my top all time days, ever. There was 12-18? new at Crystal. It snowed 1-2? of snow per hour all day long. What a day ? almost every run, untracked powder ? on a Saturday!

The snow continued into early March. The rest of March was a bit disappointing. We were caught in the crosshairs of two, mild Pineapple Express? storms. April had variable snowfall. Many areas stayed open much later. In the end the snow pack was near normal by April. Slightly above normal in some of the higher elevations. Most areas around the Western US did not have a very good season. The NW was clearly the best.

NEXT SEASON: Two big events to look forward to next season; La Nina and Crystal?s expansion into the Northway terrain.

La Nina is a cooling in the tropical waters of the mid-Pacific. It aims the storm track right at us, one storm after another. La Nina enhances our normal good snow pattern. It is the best seasonal, climatic signal and predictor for the Pacific Northwest. It?s not a guarantee, but it shifts the odds in favor of having wonderful, consistent snow in the Cascades. Remember Mt Baker?s world record snowfall was set in the late 90?s -- that was during a strong La Nina.!

La Nina can produce very consistent, moist westerly flow for weeks on end. All with low, but not rock bottom snow levels of 2000-3000ft. I would consider staying close to home next season, perhaps a season pass?, planned flexibility, multi-day trips in the Cascades. Once it starts cookin? ? you don?t want to miss out.

The computer models are all leaning toward at least a weak La Nina for next winter, maybe stronger. Any La Nina is good. We will know with more certainty by late summer, early fall. So stay tuned here.

Crystal will open another 1000 acres in their North back country next season. A new lift is going in this summer. Like many of you, I have skied back there for almost three decades, doing the hike with a traverse or bus back ? picking off perfect powder lines. Almost a private powder experience, while there were lift lines inbounds. The only payment a bit of a hike/traverse.

For those of you who have not been back there, it is fantastic ? you will be blown away. Many high quality north facing powder bowls, some very steep terrain (Niagaras). One of the best individual runs of my life was two years ago. Ski patrol dropped the out of bounds ropes, right when I showed up. I got first tracks down Bruce?s Bowl; forty - three linked deep powder turns ? better than my experience heliskiing.

As a long time backcountry alpine skier it will be sad to see it change and see it get skied out faster. I always felt you really earned it with the hike. But the new chair will spread us all out on a powder day ? more smiles for all! In addition, we'll all be able to explore it much more thoroughly with chair access. In the end, hikers will still have the magic of the Southback at Crystal ? which has even more powder and terrain. The King, Boxcar, Threeway Peak. Avalanche and Silver Basin.

Have a great summer. We have much to look forward to next season. Long Live La Nina!

This will be updated later in October

Larry Schick Meteorologist

Imperial Grand Pooh-bah of Powder
Click to expand...
 
Larry's big day Feb. 24 coincided with yours at Kirkwood as I recall.

They did not have much after early March. I don't have much final NW data yet, but Hood Meadows actually came in slightly below average after the strong start. The early November flooding at Mt. Rainier prevented them from taking daily snow measurements until about Christmas. Based upon Nov.-Dec. base depths I estimate Paradise got 260 inches snow those 2 months, but with only another 270 the other 4 months Paradise is below average also. Given the 548 at Whistler, I do expect Mt. Baker to be in its usual #1 position for this past season.

In February Crystal was taking about extending its season, but they did not. But of course the early season was spectacular.
 
March 2007 was just a bad month for Western snow. Probably drought bad. Everywhere.

Almost as bad as the all region late January drought.

I kind of gambled and lost for a big March...but fine.

My season was below average in skier days (Sierra off-piste rocks are not my friend) but punctured by some great experiences: Kirkwood in a solid 3" top-to-bottom, opening/closing Telluride & stable backcountry (I don't write all those reports up, too much of a bias), Boise business trip which included Bogus Basin (rocks!!) & Tamarack, and some nice Canadian skiing after going north to Kicking Horse & Banff.
 
I don't have all the season data yet, but I have most of it. I expect this to be the overall lowest snow year since 1991-92. Only western Canada and the Northeast(!) are above average. Sierra, Utah and some of the U.S. Northern Rockies are very low. Colorado, like most of the US PNW, is slightly below average.

Qualitatively, having both January and March as overall dry as they were this season in the West had to have an effect. Like Chris I happened to be at one of the exceptions in March (Alaska) so I personally did OK this season. Cramming 16 of my ski days into February was also helpful.

Preliminary Kottke report numbers show US skier visits down modestly from last year. Colorado (which has a disproportionate share overall) was up due to its good start. California and Northeast with bad starts are down. Utah was down modestly, as we know a 70% season there is not the disaster it might be some other places. Kottke only measures US resorts. Presumably western Canada was up quite a bit.

We don't see a whole lot of FTO reports from Colorado. It would be helpful to see those Telluride reports, if not every day, at least one per trip soon after you get home.
 
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