Rare 50 year Arctic Blast Sets Sights On Southern California

If it happens next week, there won't be any of it left below 4,000 - 5,000 when you're here. But you should keep tabs on the progress of the storm because it will be worth your while to ski the local areas if it happens.

There's a lot of discussion about this on the Mammoth Forum. The "50 year" quote is from a forecaster who has a reputation for hype. Memories are always short when it comes to weather and snow storms. Here is a good benchmark IMHO: http://bestsnow.net/20010214baldytc.HTML. It takes a very rare and precise storm track to produce a result like that.

The most impressive cold storm of my memory was late January/early February 1979. That was another 5-7 footer at Baldy with even lower snow levels than 2001. It snowed 6 inches in Palm Springs and 2 feet in the San Gorgonio Pass ~2,500 feet leading to it. With widespread snow in the low deserts of SoCal, Arizona and New Mexico I remember reading comments about it being the maximum snow cover for North America in some long number of years.

The only meaningful snow in the Los Angeles basin itself was in January 1949. Foothill suburbs over 1,500 feet used to get snow every 7 years or so, but with urban heat island effect it's more like 20-25 years now. The Verdugo peaks above my house top out at 3,000 and they have had snow twice (1987 and 2001) in the 24 years I've lived there.
 
Weather maps today make this storm look smaller than before. Useful commentary here: http://izotz.com/dweebreport/

The ideal pattern for SoCal is for the storm track to run north to south offshore, then turn inland below Pt. Conception. The current trend is for the north-to-south pattern, but more over land, so it will contain less moisture. The vast majority of winter storms move more directly east-to-west and tend to come ashore centered around San Francisco or farther north. Washington/Oregon rate to get the most snow this weekend, with the Sierra getting its share early next week. But it's not huge by Pacific States' standards, probably a couple of feet.

that snow looks a little packed to be considered powder, not many deep lines
Click to expand...
Baldy nearly always has a lot of wind during storms, but there was less evidence of that in Feb. 2001 than most other storms. The snow on Thunder was dense so you didn't sink far into it, but it was not windpack. It was deeper in the trees of course. Report posted at the time: http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818 ... ldytc.HTML.
 
The storm is in the Sierra now and is expected to get down here tomorrow. 2 feet of snow possible for SoCal locals. I'd be out there afterwards if there were a base under it. Very cold storm, not the best for building that base. Weather forecasters do miss; maybe we'll get lucky and it will be more.
 
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