Short/long term western weather?

G

gores95

New member
Is there any hope in the near future of reversing the dry/hot western weather pattern and salvaging the rest of the winter and spring?

Trying to decide between Whistler & Tahoe/Mammoth & Colorado and although Whistler has had BY FAR the best season, right now looking like CO. Altitude is my friend!

Seriously has anyone seen any long term maps that look encouraging?

BTW nice site!

Thanks.

Marc
 
Thanks for the kudos, Marc! I can tell you that here the forecast is for sunny and unseasonably warm until about Tuesday, when a pattern-breaking storm is forecast with a return to more seasonable temps thereafter. Colorado weather generally follows ours by about a day.
 
For once, I'm following a certain FTO moderator's orders and heading out to Lake Louise/Sunshine next weekend. Supposed to be the most reliable spring skiing on the continent, right?

If it isn't, I'll know whom to blame.
 
This thread reminds me of a question I've been intending to ask. For those of us who are more interested in likely surface conditions than in depth of base when deciding where to go, what is the most reliable predictor of getting some fresh powder for spring skiing at a given ski area -- (1) long-term average snowfall for the same period at that resort; or (2) snowfall history in the current season :?: Tony has probably run some kind of statistical analysis like this, or if not, I think this would be interesting to do.
 
If you read my recent comments at the end of the Alta 60 degrees thread you will get an idea of my insights based upon March trips to Utah in 17 different seasons.

For new snow, the answer is very simple: Alta and Snowbird average 90 inches in March and 70 in April, most of any lift service.

For packed powder surfaces/snow preservation/less spring conditions the answer is not so simple. The highest and predominantly north facing areas in Colorado do retain a packed powder surface in the absence of new snow longer than Utah. It helps to have low skier density too; thus I prefer areas farther from Denver (Aspen, Crested Butte, Telluride, also Taos) to Summit County, though Copper and A-Basin have the optimal altitude/exposure characteristics. Colorado also tends to get a few refresher inches per week as opposed to being bone dry or getting Utah/Sierra style dumps. And March/April are the snowiest months on the Continental Divide (50-60 inches per month).

Louise/Sunshine have similar snow preservation characteristics to Colorado. Exposures are not as good but it is colder and the sun is not is not as strong.

Then for spring you have the Pacific areas with the deepest bases and also good snow preservation: Whistler, Bachelor, Mammoth. As we know the former 2 are having excellent seasons and Mammoth a bad one (about 10th percentile). Thus I'm flying to Bachelor for April 14-15, its last weekend of full operation. The top of Mammoth (wind) and the Whistler alpine (overcast) tend to be cooler than Altabird and will usually hold the winter snow longer in dry weather. At Bachelor you actually want the clear days and transitional snow for its optimal lift served corn.
 
Tony, of course all your points on snow preservation are spot-on.

But on the question of new snow, I'm not sure that "For new snow, the answer is very simple: Alta and Snowbird average 90 inches in March and 70 in April, most of any lift service. " completely answers the question. If the correlation of new snow with current season is much higher than the correlation with long-term history, then you might have a better chance of new snow at a place that's having a better year than Alta/ Snowbird. I do see the point, however, that if the difference in long-term averages is large, then it would take an extemely large % difference in forecasts to overcome this. That is, suppose that based on this season's snowfall to date, the best forecast for Snowbird is 1 standard deviation below average (let's say, for an average of 90 inches, 1 std dev below would be 80 inches), whereas the forecast for A-Basin is 1 std dev above average (let's say, for an average of 60 inches, 1 std dev above would be 66 in.). Then the best forecast for Snowbird would still be considerably higher than for A-Basin, because of the large difference in averages. But for comparing areas where the averages are closer, the results might not be so clear-cut. But again, my whole story line here depends on the assumption that the history to date of the current season has some value in predicting the snowfall in the spring, over and above the predictive power of the long-term history. I don't really know whether this is true or not, but it does seem a relevant question, and one which could probably be answered with a few AR regressions. It might also become more relevant as global warming changes the long-term patterns.

As for this spring, we thought of going to Bachelor based on its spring track record (as you note in your Guide to Snowfall website) -- note that by eschewing Mammoth, I'm implicitly assuming that this season's history is a better predictor of new snow than its long-term history -- but for us it's a lot more expensive and a longer trip to reach Bachelor than Denver. But it's defintely on our radar screen for a future trip, and we'll look forward to your report.
 
There was a recent issue article in SKI Magazine trying to answer this question - at least from a historical snowfall perspective.

No source was cited - but they listed avg. March & April snow totals for the following:

Mammoth - 110"
Park City - 115"
Big Sky - 97"
Snowbird/Alta - 164"
Brighton/Solitude - 149/126"
Whistler - 118"
A Basin - 110"
Loveland - 127"
Squaw Valley - 127"
 
If the correlation of new snow with current season is much higher than the correlation with long-term history, then you might have a better chance of new snow at a place that's having a better year than Alta/ Snowbird.
Click to expand...
This premise is incorrect. I have tested current month snow to previous month snow for all the areas I have with 30+ years of complete data and the correlations are very weak. Therefore if new powder is the top priority for any trip planned more than 2 weeks ahead, historical records are always the best indicator.

Whether any area is currently having a good or bad year is relevant only with respect to snow coverage. This is key in the early season. Thus I advise people to wait through November for booking December and January trips to see who has snow. For late season "who is having a good or bad year" is only relevant if the area with a bad year will lose coverage prematurely (this is now a risk for the Sierra by mid-April) or if the area with a good year will choose to extend its season. For example Crystal Mt. has announced it will be open all weekends in April.

Once you get into April I believe surface conditions become the most important factor, thus my emphasis on altitude/exposure. Given how fast Altabird softens in the second week of March, I think it's safe to assume that in April the transition to spring conditions is swift. So intermediates in particular are better off in a place like Bachelor, Mammoth, Aspen/Snowmass or Summit County Colorado that does lots of grooming. The SKI Magazine article is somewhat lacking in credibility by its emphasis on snowfall, minimal discussion of altitude exposure, and particularly by its omission of Mt. Bachelor from the list.

Here is the monthly correlation table:
Area N/D D/J J/F F/M M/A
Killington 14% -8% 5% 27% -10%
Mansfield Stake 20% -12% -8% 41% -1%
Mt. Washington 45% 43% 4% 49% 22%
Alpine Meadows 12% 20% 1% -34% 36%
Donner Pass 9% 12% 5% -33% 31%
Kirkwood 31% 29% 22% -9% 31%
Mammoth 29% 22% 27% -7% 34%
Crater Lake 10% 36% 18% 9% 26%
Mt. Bachelor 28% 20% 27% -12% 27%
Mt. Rainier 27% 42% 32% -3% -6%
Whistler Alpine 15% -12% 14% -2% 8%
Alta 10% -7% 19% -37% -7%
Snowbird 22% -3% 14% -20% 3%
Brighton 24% -5% 42% -15% -4%
Jackson Hole 13% 20% 20% -26% 16%
Grand Targhee 16% 33% 31% 17% 39%
Glacier NP, Canada 16% -21% 29% -1% -19%
Lake Louise -4% -28% 23% 8% 13%
Sunshine -22% -5% 42% -6% -34%
Berthoud Pass 11% 10% 20% 11% 13%
Loveland 37% 22% 19% 23% 31%
Winter Park 27% 4% 7% -3% 7%
Gothic 18% 13% 21% 14% -10%
Taos 38% -4% 33% -8% 14%

Averages 19% 9% 20% -1% 11%


If you think any of the 20-30% correlations are significant, you must also believe the negative ones, where Altabird snowfall in February and March is inversely correlated for example. I believe that nearly all of the above numbers are statistical noise and not meaningful.
 
Thanks, Tony. That's the kind of correlation I was wondering about. You're probably right that the few rather high positive correlations (and the negative one) are just noise. Still, I can easily imagine a PhD dissertation in meteorology trying to explain why they're positive some places and negative others. :lol:

When you say
this is now a risk for the Sierra by mid-April
Click to expand...
, do you think Mammoth might close by mid-April? That's hard to imagine when I remember skiing in close to white-out conditions at this same time last year, with the Mammoth himself buried up to his tusks!
 
There are comments on the Mammoth Forum about exposed location like the top of Chair 5 getting thin.

Without significant new snow I think it is very unlikely that Eagle can stay covered until April 22, and there is also a chance that Canyon Lodge could close a week earlier than the currently scheduled April 22. Some California schools have spring break the week after Easter, so they will try hard to keep at least some of the Canyon side open to April 15 IMHO.

The current stated policy for the Main Lodge area is that the mountain will close if Broadway loses its snow so you can't ski directly to the Main Lodge. In the 1980's they would run chair 3 and the upper gondola with lower gondola for access only.

My best estimate is that Canyon will close April 15, and that Main Lodge will run one or two weekends into May. They need a big April to make it to Memorial Day now. Season snowfall so far is 175 inches. The close call Memorial Days where they don't quite make it have been in the 210-230 range. They always make Memorial Day when they get 250. Recall that Mammoth's long term average is 370 inches; thus they make Memorial Day in about 85% of seasons.
 
Guys tremendous info....thanks for your help!

Last week I actually switched plans from Whistler to Summit County for 4/6-4/11. Of course Whistler has been getting hammered with snow this week (at least the Alpine) but I just figured CO altitude would be better to preserve what snow they have. Not to mention nicer weather than Whistler!

Anyway how are long-range models looking for winter returning to the West? I understand it will at least be more seasonable in the coming weeks.

Thanks again!
 
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