Snowbird May 3 (The end of the Epic Pow)

mbaydala

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http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=65694&id=1231002422&l=1641c9bd11

Day 93 started at 920 on the tram. Baldy hadn't been opened then BAM, right in the middle of the tram announcements, the tram operator announced she had a correction, Baldy is OPEN! With bluebird skies and fresh resurfaced Baldy from yesterdays earlier closure, the Fields of Glory were just that. Super high speed, you could just absolutely open it up, full throttle down the gut. Jeff and I both agreed that neither of us have ever skied that line that fast. There was simply no competition, snow was sick and visibility was unlimited.

So lap two we assumed we would hit it again, but this time the tram operator finished with, "Oh and Road to Provo will be open in 60 seconds, enjoy!" So that's just what we did, we put first lines down the steepest shot in little cloud bowl, then marched our way through the 2-3 feet of settled snow making our way back to the little cloud chair. After doing that one more time we decided to head out on the Knucklehead Traverse to the top of Gad 2. Once again we were the first out there. We skied directly under the lift which was just ridiculous. There we ran into two of Jeff's work friends who also work for Mountain Sports International. It was our intention to ski back to the tram, catching the bottom of big emma but instead they told us to follow. So that's what we did. Not sure what the line is called but its the exact line that Admin had filmed yesterday afternoon. The only thing was no tracks? Not sure if wind had blown them in but I'm pretty sure there wasn't much new snow late yesterday afternoon, but whatever the reason I'll take it. Once down at the Gadzoom chair we were able to hop the shuttle back to tram plaza. According to Jeff's friends that's the last day of the year they will be running the shuttle so I guess we lucked out.

Finally, back up at the top of Hidden Peak, Jeff and his crew decided to hit Gad2 again, this time I decided to do one more North Baldy down to the car. I think I made the right call as Baldy was still sick, but the shot right above the Heli pad was about 3feet of glue which even my K2 Hellbents couldn't push around.

Sorry the pics are all scenic, the crew I was skiing with today wasn't about to wait for photos. Here is a link to yesterdays powder video I posted to facebook.
http://www.facebook.com/album.php?aid=65694&id=1231002422#!/video/video.php?v=1459391644711&ref=mf
 
You might want to rename that subject line, for it seems that we're on the doorstep of yet another storm cycle.

Oh, and FWIW I didn't film that video clip -- Heinz did, with The Other Bobby D's camera. The camera owner came over last night and I showed him how to edit a quick video, then we uploaded it.
 
Admin":3607g0q6 said:
You might want to rename that subject line, for it seems that we're on the doorstep of yet another storm cycle.

Oh, and FWIW I didn't film that video clip -- Heinz did, with The Other Bobby D's camera. The camera owner came over last night and I showed him how to edit a quick video, then we uploaded it.


Are you talking about the potential early next week system? Even if that's the case isn't the Bird closed on Monday-Thursday starting next week? Skinning Alta then maybe?
 
Actually, I was talking about this week. While the amounts do admittedly appear modest (7-10" or so total), it's nice to see such a persistent pattern for the first half of May. And don't forget that what follows is purely a computer forecast, so it doesn't take into account idiosyncrasies of topography or the lake effect -- i.e., with such a persistent northwest flow and warming lake you never know:

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Breezy, with a southwest wind 15 to 18 mph increasing to between 23 and 26 mph. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Tuesday: Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. West wind 9 to 12 mph increasing to between 17 and 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Tuesday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. West northwest wind between 11 and 15 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible.

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 47. West northwest wind between 13 and 15 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Wednesday Night: A 50 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 13. West northwest wind between 11 and 14 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Thursday: A 30 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 31. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Thursday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 20.

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 43.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Saturday: Partly sunny, with a high near 49.

Saturday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25.

Sunday: A slight chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 48.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28.

Monday: A chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a high near 46.
 
With this one I just don't see it. I went to school for two years to be a meteorologist up in SUNY Oswego, so I have a pretty good grasp on computer model analysis. So far I've nailed all the big storms or pattern changes in the 8-10 day range. The Sundance storm and both early and late April early May storms. I always send my good friends facebook messages letting them in on what I'm thinking but since this is a ski blog and not a weather blog I've just never posted here. Anyway, I hope I'm wrong on this one let's hope we get some more. I'm thinking no more then 3 or 4 inches by the end of the week. Mon-Wed is looking best next week for moderate to potentially significant snowfall. We shall see.
 
mbaydala":2k8661xe said:
Even if that's the case isn't the Bird closed on Monday-Thursday starting next week?
Nope. Bird is still daily - they usually go to weekends sometime in mid-May, usually after the second weekend.
 
mbaydala":3m1cbonl said:
I always send my good friends facebook messages letting them in on what I'm thinking but since this is a ski blog and not a weather blog I've just never posted here.

Oh, jeez...please do! There's so much crossover between skiing and weather, and the geeks here eat that stuff up, yours truly included. I'm just a hack and I know it -- I'd sure love to see your thoughts here as things start to develop.
 
I'm sure that this has been addressed before, but does Tony include Alta's accumulations that fall after the lifts close in his annual stat?

Since it's now lift-served sidecountry from Snowbird, which is open, does that mean yes? Or since lifts are officially closed, shouldn't it be considered "NA?"

Given recent statements by Tony over the course of this season, I'm assuming that anything casting Alta in a less positive light vis-a-vis Snowbird will be favored.
:lol:
 
Nice try. Mbaydala said next week and you said "nope."

Case closed. :wink:

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I'm sure that this has been addressed before, but does Tony include Alta's accumulations that fall after the lifts close in his annual stat?
My objective in nearly all cases is to quote snowfall on a Nov. 1 - Apr. 30 basis in order to make apples vs. apples comparisons among ski areas. Alta does in fact measure its snow through April 30. For areas that do not, I index them to a nearby closely correlated area that does. For example Snowbasin is 81% correlated to Alta and has 58% of Alta's snowfall in 171 months where both areas reported. So I take 58% of Alta's average as a best estimate for Snowbasin.

Snowfall in October or May is counted only if it affects ski operation. For May the list of areas open is very short. Snowbird is on that list but has been providing May data only for the last 5 years. Since Snowbird's data goes back to 1973 its long term average is only increased by 2.5 inches as of last year by including the May data. The real May average for Snowbird is probably 20-25 inches.

In the handful of cases where Utah October snow has been big enough to advance opening dates I have used it for both Alta and Snowbird even though Alta does not advance its opening date as it is clearly relevant to the quality of skiing when Alta did open.

The number of areas affected by using snowfall outside the Nov-Apr range is very small, and if they offer lift served skiing outside that range I see no problem giving some credit for snow they get while open.
 
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