Snowbird, UT 5/20/2006

[Admin]

Day 57: Major loss

It's amazing what a week with Salt Lake Valley temps +/- 90 will do. Wow, the snow loss on the lower mountain over the course of this week is amazing. They had to push a path of snow to lead back to the Gadzoom loading area. Bare spots have opened up on lower mountain runs like Big Emma, and anything below Little Cloud now requires passing a Forest Service "backcountry area" sign and a hand-written sign stating that recommend skiing is on Little Cloud and in Mineral Basin. With the major loss of lower mountain snow this week, plus the Peruvian Gulch closure, I'm now convinced that they won't remain open past the current May 29 closing date.

Up high, though, the snowpack remains deep. 100 inches is the official settled snow depth at mid-mountain, and over 8 feet of snow covers plenty. Unfortunately, the warm air means that nothing set up overnight all week, so wallpaper paste ruled the day. Suncups have appeared on ungroomed surfaces. Slow, but fun nonetheless.

We took 4 runs, 3 in Mineral Basin and one on the front side. For the first run Michael stuck to the groomed Powder Paradise while I traversed out across Hillary Step to the Bookends. The snow on the northeast-facing aspect was gummy, but fun to carve big arcs in down the steep face.

We then struck out to the other side of MBE, Michael taking Lupine Loop while I traversed out to Chamonix I. That was a surprise -- I'd have thought that the south-facing steeps would have been manky, but in fact they skied quite well. So well that we did the same thing again.

For the last run Michael stuck to skier's right of a closed GS course set up on Mark Malou while I went out the Knucklehead Traverse to the Knucklehead Chutes, down Bassackwards to Big Emma.

Next week should be better. Highs are expected to drop to the low 70s in the Valley beginning Monday, so maybe we'll get a corn cycle set up. This winter seemed to go straight from powder to mashed potatoes, so a bit of corn to round out the diet would be nice.

 

[Marc_C]

It's amazing what a week with Salt Lake Valley temps +/- 90 will do. Wow, the snow loss on the lower mountain over the course of this week is amazing. They had to push a path of snow to lead back to the Gadzoom loading area. Bare spots have opened up on lower mountain runs like Big Emma, and anything below Little Cloud now requires passing a Forest Service "backcountry area" sign and a hand-written sign stating that recommend skiing is on Little Cloud and in Mineral Basin. With the major loss of lower mountain snow this week, plus the Peruvian Gulch closure, I'm now convinced that they won't remain open past the current May 29 closing date.

Up high, though, the snowpack remains deep. 100 inches is the official settled snow depth at mid-mountain, and over 8 feet of snow covers plenty. Unfortunately, the warm air means that nothing set up overnight all week, so wallpaper paste ruled the day. Suncups have appeared on ungroomed surfaces.
<snip>
This winter seemed to go straight from powder to mashed potatoes, so a bit of corn to round out the diet would be nice.

As I've previously mentioned, last year was out of the ordinary - much deeper than normal snowpack coupled with a cool, damp spring and cold nights. What we have now is much more typical of May in my experience.

Disclaimer: I moved here in the middle of a 6 year drought, broken last year. Thus, I, too, have yet to experience a "normal" Wasatch season, although I suspect this season comes close to the normal mean.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I moved here in the middle of a 6 year drought, broken last year. Thus, I, too, have yet to experience a "normal" Wasatch season, although I suspect this season comes close to the normal mean.

I would take some issue with this statement, Alta data here:
98-99 472.50
99-00 501.00
00-01 485.00
01-02 535.00
02-03 400.00
03-04 593.00
03-05 697.50
05-06 631.00
38yrAvg 523.76

The past 2 years have been big, and of the previous 6 only 2002-03 could be considered dry. That was a mediocre year for skiing because November and January were the dry months and some steep terrain was not skiable until February. You would have to be very spoiled to complain about any of the other years IMHO.

I have always had the impression that Utah is the warmest ski region of the Rockies. I think that hurts Snowbird some in May. Thus:

This winter seemed to go straight from powder to mashed potatoes

may be more the rule than the exception. Mammoth and Bachelor usually have longer corn seasons, but this year the heat got to Mammoth early too.

Mammoth may have another chance with the foot of Sierra Cement that fell up top yesterday. Mammoth's diligent salting and grooming and the consistent north exposure of most of its steeps are other advantages.

 

[Admin]

Tony, the first six years you cite correspond with the aforementioned six-year drought, which is meterologically indisputable. I think that you'll likely see that if you look further back. Utah had significant water shortages and lowering reservoir levels during that period.

 

[Marc_C]

03-04 593.00

An execellent example of how snowfall data doesn't give the whole story. There were two dismal aspects to the 03/04 season:
1. In January we had 22 continuous days of inversion and zero snowfall, with daily highs at 8500' of mid-40's - 50 and bright sun. We had to treat conditions the same as in the spring. There was some nice corn in January if you timed your aspects correctly.

2. Once May hit, it got suddenly hot and dry, with valley highs of mid-80's - mid-90's over the first two weeks of May. Snowbird closed that season after the second weekend instead of the planned Memorial Day weekend.

And while Alta had respectable snowfall that year, much of it occured early rather than later in the season (the year of the 100" in 100 hours over Thanksgiving). Overall, the northern Wasatch snowpack was 68% of normal by spring. There was discussion of possible mandatory water rationing in the Valley for that summer. That was the year that Lake Powell went to 120' below normal. Lake Powell's surface area is nominally 266 sq. miles.

Compare these satellite photos of Hite Crossing (the thin blueish road to right of center):

 

[Tony Crocker]

The Wasatch drains mostly into the Salt Lake. Most skiers would not be that sympathetic to your plight in January 2004 considering that Alta had 125 inches in November and 148 in December. In most ski regions a bad January means you're still looking at rocks, not just having a premature spring. 3-week mid-season droughts are routine in the Sierra.

Lake Powell is fed by the snowpack in Colorado, which had way below average seasons in 1998-99, 1999-2000 and 2001-02. And there probably hasn't been a year since 1996-97 when the whole state has been good. There are some years in there where part of the Colorado River drainage had high snow (the north this year) but was offset by drought elsewhere (the Southwest this year).

Utah's snow does have a fair amount of variability in water content, which could affect reservoir levels. This year was high in water content, and perhaps the big storms of November/December 2003 were low in water.

FYI the high 1981-82 through 1983-84 seasons threatened severe flooding of the Great Salt Lake, so the state had to build something to pump water out of the lake and dump it into the desert toward Nevada.

 

[Admin]

First off, here's all the evidence of the drought afflicting the Wasatch from the late 1990s to two years ago that I'll ever need: http://water.ksl.com/index.php

However, let's talk about this a bit more anyway.

The Wasatch drains mostly into the Salt Lake.

Little Cottonwood, Big Cottonwood, Weber, etc. Canyons drain into the Salt Lake, as well as American Fork, Provo, Spanish Fork, etc. Canyons via Utah Lake:

http://greatsaltlake.utah.edu/description/[/url]":3anr6y0a]The three major rivers which drain into the Great Salt Lake: the Bear, the Weber, and the Provo/Jordan originate in the western end of the Uinta Mountains, along the eastern edge of the basin at altitudes above 3000m. The many tributaries join and flow through broad valleys and narrow canyons, and emerge from the western side of the Wasatch Range. The Bear and Weber Rivers discharge directly into the Great Salt Lake. The Provo River discharges into Utah Lake, a freshwater lake at the south end of the Great Salt Lake valley. The Jordan River drains from Utah Lake north into the Great Salt Lake. The Bear River is diverted into Bear Lake for storage. A pumping station returns water from Bear Lake to the Bear River where it is used downstream for irrigation and hydropower. A substantial part of the Great Salt Lake basin drainage area is the desert to the west.

The eastern Wasatch, plus the Uintas, etc., drain into the Colorado. Check out the Green River, which contributes to much of the Colorado River flow. Here's a map of the Colorado River watershed:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_(U.S[/url].)":3anr6y0a]There is some authority for considering the headwaters of the Colorado River, and its main source, to be the Green River which rises in Sublette County, Wyoming. The Green River is practically the same size as the Colorado,formerly known as the "Grand" River at their confluence near Moab, Utah
<snip>
Once inside Utah, the river turns south, and goes through Arches National Park, then Dead Horse Point State Park and Canyonlands National Park, where it is met by one of its primary tributaries, the Green River.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_River_%28Utah%29[/url]":3anr6y0a]The Green is a large, deep, powerful river. It ranges from 100 -300 feet wide in the upper course to 300 - 1000 feet wide in it's lower course and ranges from 3 - 50 feet in depth. It is navigable by small craft throughout it's course and by large motorboats upstream to Flaming Gorge Dam.

Here's a map of the Utah portion of the Green River watershed:

The drainage into the Colorado, and the drainage into the GSL, are not sufficiently distant from one another to support an assertion that the Colorado River watershed is not a good indicator of Wasatch snowpack, but I'll play along anyway. If you don't like Marc_C's use of the Colorado as an example, just look at the Great Salt Lake levels. Let's start with a map of the Great Salt Lake watershed:

Now let's examine the effect of Wasatch snowpack on the Great Salt Lake level:

http://greatsaltlake.utah.edu/descripti ... tsaltlake/[/url]":3anr6y0a]Changes in water level and surface area of the lake are directly tied to changes in precipitation within the watershed, with periods of low water level associated with extended periods of drought and the high level with periods of above average precipitation. This variation relates directly to the quantities of fresh water that fall within the watershed, primarily as snow in the mountains during the winter. The entire watershed is snowmelt runoff driven, with large quantities of fresh water being stored for irrigation in a series of reservoirs located in the mountains above the major urban and agricultural areas of the Wasatch Front.

And now let's look at what actually happened:

http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Newsro ... g_id=16427[/url]":3anr6y0a]Space Station astronauts have recorded the decline in lake levels in response to a regional 5-year drought taking both detailed views and broad views of the entire lake. As lake levels have declined the salt works have become islands in the middle of a dry lakebed. Seasonal fluctuations in Great Salt Lake produce annual lows every fall, but there are significant longer-term fluctuations in lake levels relating to the climate. Great Salt Lake hit a 22-year low at 4,198 feet in the fall of 2002, and a near-record low again in October 2003. The lowest level ever recorded was 4,191 feet in 1963, and the highest levels were 4,212 feet in June 1986 and April 1987.

Of the two pictures next to each other below (sorry about the irrelevant top photo, but all 3 are actually one big image), the one on the left is from summer 2001, and the one on the right from summer 2003, showing dramatically the effect of the drought on the Great Salt Lake level:

I've attached to the end of this posting a historical graph of Great Salt Lake levels that clearly illustrate the drought that persisted from the late 1990s until two years ago.

Now, to change the subject, as long as this was brought up...

FYI the high 1981-82 through 1983-84 seasons threatened severe flooding of the Great Salt Lake, so the state had to build something to pump water out of the lake and dump it into the desert toward Nevada.

...then let's touch on that as well.

Due to prolonged drought thereafter, the lake level dropped and the pumps were mothballed and they have never, ever been used since. Can you say "white elephant"??

http://greatsaltlake.utah.edu/description/[/url]":3anr6y0a]The 1983-86 rise of the lake to 1283.6 m caused flooding and damage to transportation and public utilities infrastructure, including Interstate 80, the Salt Lake International Airport, wastewater treatment facilities, wetlands, bird habitat and tourism. Dilution of the lake salts damaged the minerals and brine shrimp industries. Flood damages during the 1983-86 period were estimated to be $350 million per year. To reduce lake levels and increase evaporative losses, the state created a breach in the railroad causeway that separates the more saline northern arm of the lake from the larger, less saline southern arm, and constructed a $60 million facility to pump water from the lake and circulate it into the West Desert Storage Pond. These expensive measures lowered the elevation of the lake, but also left more than 0.5 billion tons of salt in the desert west of the lake, and affected lake salinity dynamics in unknown ways. The rapid retreat of the lake in 1987 led to severe criticism of the decision to pump.

This was the flooding on State Street in downtown Salt Lake City in June 1983 when the rapidly melting snowpack jumped the banks of City Creek and turned State Street into a river instead:

Here's the pump station at Hogup in 1988:

Incidentally, here's how high the lake level was in 1987 -- compare it to that 2003 shot above!!:

And BTW, Tony, your voicemail to me last night was too broken up to make out anything.

 

[salida]

Hot damn, this thread right here is why FTO is the best board out there. No where else can you get into Lake Powell And Salt Lake levels to talk about fresh Utah Powda. Right on guys, way to do the research!

 

[Patrick]

:shock:

Marc is using the heavy artillery to drive his point across.

Hot damn, this thread right here is why FTO is the best board out there. No where else can you get into Lake Powell And Salt Lake levels to talk about fresh Utah Powda. Right on guys, way to do the research!

I couldn't agree more.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Admin's maps show that all the Utah ski areas except Brian Head are in the Salt Lake drainage, so Wasatch precipitation does not end up in Lake Powell.

I should have looked a bit further into my snow data that just Alta. Among Alta's many virtues is that its snowfall is relatively consistent. From the graph we can define the "drought years" as 1998-99 through 2002-03, because the minimum lake level has been increasing since then.

Alta's snowfall was 91% of average during those years, as was Brighton's. However, Snowbird's was 83%, Snowbasin's 76% and Deer Valley's 71%. The latter 3 numbers over a 5-year period constitute drought by anyone's definition in terms of expected water runoff.

The famous Cottonwood Canyon microclimate covers a relatively small area. I made the same error that some Utah marketing directors do in trying to apply its weather to the entire Wasatch.

 

[Admin]

Admin's maps show that all the Utah ski areas except Brian Head are in the Salt Lake drainage, so Wasatch precipitation does not end up in Lake Powell.

Correction: Wasatch ski area snowfall does not end up in Lake Powell. However, Marc_C's Lake Powell water level statistics bear evidence to a general drought throughout the state, which was indisputable given the further evidence provided from the body of water where Wasatch ski area snowfall does drain: the Great Salt Lake. The bulk of the first half of my post, above, was to dispute the assertion that all, or nearly all, of the Colorado River's water comes from Colorado and not from Utah as well.

From the graph we can define the "drought years" as 1998-99 through 2002-03, because the minimum lake level has been increasing since then.

Correction: through 2003-04.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Great Salt Lake hit a 22-year low at 4,198 feet in the fall of 2002, and a near-record low again in October 2003.

Alta, Snowbird and Deer Valley snowfall in 2003-04 were all average or slightly above. From a water storage perspective the Salt Lake Valley may have been considered still in drought because an average year would prevent the lake level from declining further but not raise it to a comfortable level.

I stand by my Lake Powell comments. The area drained by the Green River is large, but that doesn't necessarily mean it produces a proportionate share of Lake Powell's water. Sort of like the longer White Nile producing only 1/4 as much water as the shorter Blue Nile. And much of the Green River's water comes from the Yampa River, which drains the Steamboat area of northern Colorado. I would be surprised if as much as 20% of Lake Powell's water comes from the Uintas and southern Wyoming.

 

[Marc_C]

Correction: Wasatch ski area snowfall does not end up in Lake Powell. However, Marc_C's Lake Powell water level statistics bear evidence to a general drought throughout the state,...

Exactly why I brought up Lake Powell...and the point of my original comment: until possibly this season, I've not experienced a "normal, mean" year in the Wasatch. Whether a given skier from a given location considers 145" in November a drought or not is irrelevant - the point is that up until last season, we had a drought that lasted 6 years. Also, what water/snowfall drains where is also largely irrelevant since the drought didn't respect state line boundaries and effected a lot more than Utah.

 

[Admin]

I stand by my Lake Powell comments. The area drained by the Green River is large, but that doesn't necessarily mean it produces a proportionate share of Lake Powell's water.

Maybe not, but it does. As I quoted above in my earlier reply:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colorado_River_(U.S[/url].)":1zixvcj7]The Green River is practically the same size as the Colorado,formerly known as the "Grand" River at their confluence near Moab, Utah

Sort of like the longer White Nile producing only 1/4 as much water as the shorter Blue Nile.

Not like that at all, for in this case they produce roughly equal amounts. In fact, from http://waterdata.usgs.gov/ut/nwis/rt realtime flows right now are as follows:

Green River @ Green River, UT: 19,600 cfs
Colorado River @ Cisco, UT: 18,700 cfs

As these two points are roughly equidistant upstream from the confluence of the Green and the Colorado, I dare say that it appears that the Green River contributes marginally more than the Colorado to their combined flow. Both are presently falling between the 25th and 74th percentile of their respective means.

And much of the Green River's water comes from the Yampa River, which drains the Steamboat area of northern Colorado.

The Yampa River is the small azure-colored stream on this map of the Colorado River and associated tributaries:

Per http://waterdata.usgs.gov/co/nwis/rt the streamflow on the Yampa at its lowest monitoring station is presently running at 11,500 cfs at Deerlodge Park, CO, just east of the Utah border. But while it would appear that this would mean that the Yampa contributes marginally just over half of the Green's flow rate, remember that they combine downstream of the massive dam at Flaming Gorge, which certainly is being used right now to refill the reservoir and prevent flooding downstream. Downstream flows from there are augmented by Uinta meltout, but not by Wyoming snowmelt. I would therefore asset that the Yampa -- and therefore Colorado snowmelt -- contributes a distinctly minority share to the Green River's flow.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yampa_River[/url]":1zixvcj7]The Yampa forms a noticeably wide, shallow stream throughout much of it's course. The lower half of the Yampa is navigable by small craft. However the meandering, shallow nature of the river can render the river unnavigable during late summer in low water years.

That doesn't sound like a major flow-producer to me.

I would be surprised if as much as 20% of Lake Powell's water comes from the Uintas and southern Wyoming.

As for a dry, desolate and relatively low area like southern Wyoming, save for the Wind River range, I'd agree. However, remember that the Uintas are a massive, high-elevation range running something like 100 miles from end to end, west to east, and are remarkably wet for this region:

The south and east sides of the range are largely within the Colorado River watershed. The Green River, the principal tributary of the Colorado, flows in a tight arc around the eastern side of the range. The Bear River, the largest tributary of the Great Salt Lake, rises on the northern side of the range. Large portions of the mountain range receive over 500 in (1,250 cm) of snow and 60 in (150 cm) of precipitation annually. The high Uintas are snowcapped year-round except for late July through early September.

That's where your Green River flow comes from, and we've already seen the significant contribution (majority share?) that the Green supplies to the Colorado.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Recall your scout expedition to the Uintas last summer. I'm very skeptical of the 500 inch claim. Oriented east-west and leeward of the Wasatch the Uintas should get less and drier snow than BCC/LCC.

I am impressed by your search skills. I tried to find some detail on sources of Colorado River water and all I could get was 88% from above Glen Canyon Dam and 12% from below it. Your next assignment is to get some SNOTEL water equivalent data from the Uintas to shed some light on the argument in the paragraph above.

I think it is quite likely that the Yampa is half of the Green's volume, thus making the Wyoming/Utah Green 1/4 of the Upper Colorado/Lake Powell. We know that the Steamboat/Buffalo Pass area is high in precipitation, probably more than the Uintas IMHO.

 

[Admin]

Recall your scout expedition to the Uintas last summer. I'm very skeptical of the 500 inch claim. Oriented east-west and leeward of the Wasatch the Uintas should get less and drier snow than BCC/LCC.

The Uintas are clearly the wettest environment out here. The higher elevation (13,000 feet-plus) seems to squeeze more precipitation out of the clouds. From that scouting expedition it looked lush and green with tall conifers, compared to the other topography around here. It was like a breath of fresh air after being surrounded by brown. Keep in mind, though, that I was nowhere near the high core of the Uintas, which are exclusively in a roadless area. I've posted a map below from Salt Lake City on the west (I included that as a point of reference) to nearly the Colorado border on the east. Everything east of Kamas is the Uinta range. On that scouting expedition I only took Route 150 (The Mirror Lake Highway) east and north as far as Hayden Peak, then turned around and headed home.

Your next assignment is to get some SNOTEL water equivalent data from the Uintas to shed some light on the argument in the paragraph above.

That one's quite easy, at least for real-time data: http://www.met.utah.edu/mesowest/ .

Go to Utah, then sort by elevation to make the important ones easy to spot. Click on the station name to see where it is and even get a topo. Most of the south side of the Uintas, including the high-altitude Chepeta site in a wind-exposed location on the summit ridge at 12,120 feet, are in Duschene County, and the north side in Summit County, including the Steel Creek Park SnoTel at 10,100 feet, although the lower western end is partially in Wasatch County as well, and the lower eastern end is partially in Daggett and Uintah Counties.

I think it is quite likely that the Yampa is half of the Green's volume, thus making the Wyoming/Utah Green 1/4 of the Upper Colorado/Lake Powell. We know that the Steamboat/Buffalo Pass area is high in precipitation, probably more than the Uintas IMHO.

Despite Buff Pass's high snowfall, it's a tiny microclimate compared to the huge expanse of the Uintas.