SoCal and Ski Area Fires, Sept. 2024
- Thread starter EMSC
- Start date
Sounds like much more might remain of Mountain High than many expected.
Sorry about the paywall, but the headline at least suggests a potentially more positive outcome than expected: https://www.latimes.com/california/...in-high-but-famed-ski-resort-largely-survived
The local CBS affiliate suggests Mountain High might have mitigated much of the damage by turning on the snow-making system: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incide...ge-fire/bridge-fire-morning-update-09-10-2024
The Bridge Fire was also right at Baldy's doorstep this morning: https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incide...ge-fire/bridge-fire-morning-update-09-10-2024
EMSC
Well-known member
Hopefully so. Even then it will take a lot of work to figure out what still works, what got heat damage (often times not visible for metal structures and haul ropes, etc...) and how many trees have to be cleared.
I just know there are a bunch of fires, how many are human caused vs natural (most or all of them)?
I know they just arrested someone for one of our large July fires in Colo. It had been simply listed as 'human caused' for the past 6 weeks. Just so many utterly clueless humans in the modern world it seems.
Roundup of fires by Ski Area Management Magazine.
Mt. High video on Powder Magazine site:
This one on X is fast forwarded, covering 12 minutes of time in 5 seconds
If you full screen the video above, the time stamp at the bottom shows it between 4:44 and 4:56PM yesterday and the location as Mt. High East, 8,182 feet. I believe both of the above videos are of the Discovery chair at the top of East. IMHO this is the best beginner lift in SoCal, being at high elevation and with minimal advanced skier traffic. Some beginners need to download the 1,600 vertical East Express though.
On my midweek visits in recent years Discovery has not been running, though I've skied the run there on the way to West. When Mt. High says,
The Bridge Fire (now 48,000 acres) originated in the East Fork San Gabriel River canyon and threatens Mt. Baldy Village from the west. This fire is not particularly close to the Baldy ski area. The much smaller (2936 acres) Vista Fire a few weeks ago was in the Lytle Creek drainage directly behind the ski area but it is now 100% contained.
I was in Alhambra yesterday noon and took this pic of the Bridge Fire's pyrocumulus cloud:
The Line Fire was the first one this month to get started Sept. 5 around Hwy 330 between Highland and Running Springs. It is now 35,000 acres, 14% contained and has reached the canyon on the backside of Snow Valley's Slide Peak.
We were in San Clemente Monday to escape the last day of the big heat wave when the Airport Fire started in the Trabuco Canyon area of Orange County. It is now 19,000 acres, 0% contained and has burned across the Santa Ana mountains into the Lake Elsinore area.
While the heat wave is done and it's not that windy, all 3 fires are big and will take some time to control.
The L.A. County record Station Fire of 160,577 acres began Aug. 30, 2009 and was 100% contained Oct. 16. The Bobcat Fire of 115,997 acres began Sept. 6, 2020 and was 100% contained Nov. 27. Both of those fires closed Mt. Waterman for the following season due to road and phone line damage despite no damage to the ski area itself.
Mt. High video on Powder Magazine site:
This one on X is fast forwarded, covering 12 minutes of time in 5 seconds
If you full screen the video above, the time stamp at the bottom shows it between 4:44 and 4:56PM yesterday and the location as Mt. High East, 8,182 feet. I believe both of the above videos are of the Discovery chair at the top of East. IMHO this is the best beginner lift in SoCal, being at high elevation and with minimal advanced skier traffic. Some beginners need to download the 1,600 vertical East Express though.
On my midweek visits in recent years Discovery has not been running, though I've skied the run there on the way to West. When Mt. High says,
I'll hazard a guess that Discovery is not considered "main," and if it is damaged Mt. High is not likely to be in a hurry to fix or replace it. The top terminal of the East Express is very "main" IMHO, though perhaps management disagrees with that too. Unlike Discovery, there are not any trees close to that terminal so I am somewhat hopeful that it is not damaged.
The Bridge Fire (now 48,000 acres) originated in the East Fork San Gabriel River canyon and threatens Mt. Baldy Village from the west. This fire is not particularly close to the Baldy ski area. The much smaller (2936 acres) Vista Fire a few weeks ago was in the Lytle Creek drainage directly behind the ski area but it is now 100% contained.
I was in Alhambra yesterday noon and took this pic of the Bridge Fire's pyrocumulus cloud:
The Line Fire was the first one this month to get started Sept. 5 around Hwy 330 between Highland and Running Springs. It is now 35,000 acres, 14% contained and has reached the canyon on the backside of Snow Valley's Slide Peak.
We were in San Clemente Monday to escape the last day of the big heat wave when the Airport Fire started in the Trabuco Canyon area of Orange County. It is now 19,000 acres, 0% contained and has burned across the Santa Ana mountains into the Lake Elsinore area.
While the heat wave is done and it's not that windy, all 3 fires are big and will take some time to control.
The L.A. County record Station Fire of 160,577 acres began Aug. 30, 2009 and was 100% contained Oct. 16. The Bobcat Fire of 115,997 acres began Sept. 6, 2020 and was 100% contained Nov. 27. Both of those fires closed Mt. Waterman for the following season due to road and phone line damage despite no damage to the ski area itself.
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How do you define "particularly close"?
Unless I am misunderstanding the geography, which is certainly possible, this morning's map (https://inciweb.wildfire.gov/incide...ge-fire/bridge-fire-morning-update-09-10-2024) makes it looks like the distance between closest point of the perimeter of the fire and Baldy's base was about 1.25-1.5 miles:
For a point of reference, the fire is believed to have started at about 2:15pm on Sunday about 7.5 miles West.
Yes, the fire would have to cross the main Baldy Bowl/San Antonio drainage coming from the top of the actual Mt. Baldy 10,000 feet. It has moved up that drainage some since I first looked but has not crossed to the east side of the road anywhere yet. There is at least one more drainage (the slackcountry Eric's) between Baldy Bowl and the ski area. The smaller Vista Fire was immediately behind the Baldy ski area, sort of like the Line Fire is with Snow Valley now.
snowtrekker
New member
That’s good news about mountain high. I watched the east cams yesterday and it didn’t look good. Though at least they had time to blow some water across the hill before the fire arrived.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for Baldy. The fire is firmly established in the San Antonio Canyon and high on the ridge to the west, with reports of homes lost in the Baldy Village area. It may still be a few drainages away from the ski area are, but that’s not a place you want to see a fire with the prevailing southwest winds and weeks if not months before you can expect meaningful precipitation.
Fortunately they don’t have to worry about the northeast flank wrapping around in a north wind event, as the Vista Fire should provide a good break.
Screenshot below from the Watch Duty app. Orange spots are satellite detected hot spots (lower resolution than the official fire perimeter, so you have to imagine the heat source is at the center of the dots). Footprint of the Vista Fire earlier this summer is shown in grey under the Legend icon.
I am keeping my fingers crossed for Baldy. The fire is firmly established in the San Antonio Canyon and high on the ridge to the west, with reports of homes lost in the Baldy Village area. It may still be a few drainages away from the ski area are, but that’s not a place you want to see a fire with the prevailing southwest winds and weeks if not months before you can expect meaningful precipitation.
Fortunately they don’t have to worry about the northeast flank wrapping around in a north wind event, as the Vista Fire should provide a good break.
Screenshot below from the Watch Duty app. Orange spots are satellite detected hot spots (lower resolution than the official fire perimeter, so you have to imagine the heat source is at the center of the dots). Footprint of the Vista Fire earlier this summer is shown in grey under the Legend icon.
Update from Powder Magazine:
The link above also has a picture from the top of West in the same time frame ~4:45PM Tuesday, which unlike East has no flames in the foreground. I read elsewhere that Mt. High turned on its snow guns to water vegetation. I'd guess this was only at West.
I have read that the fire remains west of the Mt. Baldy Road, and that fire crews are using that road to put people and equipment in to contain the fire.
I'd say the top of the East Express is OK, considering that the nearby restaurant is a wooden structure and near some trees. No word yet on the Discovery lift.
The link above also has a picture from the top of West in the same time frame ~4:45PM Tuesday, which unlike East has no flames in the foreground. I read elsewhere that Mt. High turned on its snow guns to water vegetation. I'd guess this was only at West.
I have read that the fire remains west of the Mt. Baldy Road, and that fire crews are using that road to put people and equipment in to contain the fire.
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jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Detailed update this morning on the Bridge Fire from the Claremont Courier:
Most of Baldy Village saved from Bridge Fire; Claremont evacuation warning lifted
Seems like encouraging news for Baldy.
When does the season start for Santa Ana winds, and how much risk do they pose in terms of potential rapid expansion of both the Bridge and Line fires? With basically no precipitation in SoCal this time of year, I don't see how these fires will not at least smolder for weeks or months.
Most of Baldy Village saved from Bridge Fire; Claremont evacuation warning lifted
Seems like encouraging news for Baldy.
When does the season start for Santa Ana winds, and how much risk do they pose in terms of potential rapid expansion of both the Bridge and Line fires? With basically no precipitation in SoCal this time of year, I don't see how these fires will not at least smolder for weeks or months.
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jamesdeluxe
Administrator
How is it possible that this infrastructure didn't incur major heat damage?
That's the Discovery chair at the top of East. We don't know yet whether it was damaged. The video briefly pans to the top of the East Express (you can see that it's a quad) and there are no immediate flames nearby though the sky is as smoky as the rest of the video.
snowtrekker
New member
The first Santa Ana events can happen as early as mid-late September, but the peak of the hot, dry wind season is more like October - November. Once the northern hemisphere storm track gets organized enough that low pressure systems can dive into the Great Basin and pull a cool airmass behind them, setting up the offshore flow. The Bridge and Line fires will certainly smolder for weeks / months, like the Station and Bobcat fires did.
The potential for big runs on these fires with Santa Ana winds is definitely there, but I suspect it's mitigated somewhat by the fact that Santa Ana's blow in the opposite direction to the usual southwest winds that carried these large fires. I don't recall any major runs during Santa Ana season on either the Station or Bobcat fires. A week gives crews a lot of time to clean up the southern edge of the fire, which is not very intense now because it has to expand into the prevailing wind. And when an offshore wind does come, the more active northern end will be blow back on itself. The place to watch out would be on the flanks in the higher or less accessible terrain.
Fortunately for Baldy the Vista Fire earlier this year now provides a decent firebreak for any flanking from the north.
The "cool airmass behind them" are becoming less frequent with hotter continental summers. Santa Ana wind events are more concentrated in the cooler months and are by my gut less frequent in September than when I was growing up. The signature stat for extreme hot Santa Anas is a low temp in downtown L.A. of 80F or more. There are 13 calendar dates where the record high low temp is 80F or more. 12 of those are in September and one in October. Because of the "cool airmass behind them" requirement, there are no such dates in July and August. As for those 13 dates, when were they? One in 1913, four in 1939, two in 1955, one in 1961, three in 1963, two in 1984 and one in 1988. This data reinforces my opinion that Santa Ana events in September are becoming rare.
This doesn't mitigate fire risk; the Station, Bobcat and current fires all started during "heat dome" episodes without much wind. And we still get the Santa Ana driven fires, notably the 250,000 acre Thomas Fire in Ventura/Santa Barbara counties that started on Dec. 4, 2017. The upcoming autumn fire season could be bad because there is a lot of fuel from the prior two wet winters. 1978 and 1993 were very destructive SoCal fire seasons in part for that reason.
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EMSC
Well-known member
snowtrekker
New member
Mountain High's webcam streams on Youtube are still frozen at when they lost power. You can still view the previous ~6 hours showing the fire approaching. Some dramatic views of employees rushing to get the snowmaking system going as smoke pours over the ridge:
For a sense of timing, this was about an hour and a half before the cams cut out, presumably because they lost power. There were no flames visible in the West Base cam at that point, but the Chisholm cam shows nearby trees being engulfed at the same time.
Meanwhile the Line fire in the San Bernardino mountains is picking up today. Here's the top of Slide Peak at Snow Valley with smoke blowing into the top of the lift, though most of the activity is across the valley heading towards the Big Bear area.
For a sense of timing, this was about an hour and a half before the cams cut out, presumably because they lost power. There were no flames visible in the West Base cam at that point, but the Chisholm cam shows nearby trees being engulfed at the same time.
Meanwhile the Line fire in the San Bernardino mountains is picking up today. Here's the top of Slide Peak at Snow Valley with smoke blowing into the top of the lift, though most of the activity is across the valley heading towards the Big Bear area.