Socal Next Week

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socal

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Just thought I'd post up some weather info, looks like the season is finally going to get going. I made a reservation with my $50 season pass at Baldy for next Wed. Obviously there's a lot of time left but the special weather statement on the NWS makes me happy. I'm just hoping for a good snowfall Sun-Mon and then some fresh snow on top for Wednesday. Then I'm off to UT where hopefully it'll be snowing as well. \:D/

Oh, and I should add that someone on the mammoth forums posted up something from HPC saying we could get up to 20 inches of liquid next week. Doubtful we'll get any skiing in next week if there's that kinda of water coming in.

CONFIDENCE IS GROWING THAT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER
SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK...
BUT THE EXACT DETAILS ARE STILL UNCLEAR. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE THREE OR FOUR SEPARATE IMPULSES MOVING INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY AND FRIDAY. FOR THE ENTIRE WEEK...THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL TOTALS OF AT LEAST 3 TO 6 INCHES IN COASTAL
AND VALLEY AREAS...AND 6 TO 12 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND
MOUNTAINS
Click to expand...
 
I'm seeing these predictions too, but I think making an advance reservation for a specific day at Baldy is bucking long odds. There's a long list of things that can go wrong:
1) First storm Sunday/Monday might not be big enough to get the off-trail stuff covered.
2) Timing of storms is never certain this far ahead. It could be dumping Wednesday and lifts/terrain can't open.
3) There's also the possibility of needing the better part of a day to dig out the road and/or the lifts immedately after the storm clears. Avy control after the first storm over the thin ice sheet that's there now is going to be tricky too.
4) The rain/snow line is not a foregone conclusion either. It fluctuates and you might hit the day it's high.

Baldy powder days can be great, but it's essential to call them as late as possible. I call them the night before and often review at 6-7AM before I head up there.

I'm aware of the $50 promotion and its requirement to reserve ahead. If that requirement is as much as 48 hours, it's virtually useless for scoring powder days IMHO given all the variables that affect Mt. Baldy.
 
Tony Crocker":3bryz1xd said:
I'm seeing these predictions too, but I think making an advance reservation for a specific day at Baldy is bucking long odds. There's a long list of things that can go wrong:
1) First storm Sunday/Monday might not be big enough to get the off-trail stuff covered.
2) Timing of storms is never certain this far ahead. It could be dumping Wednesday and lifts/terrain can't open.
3) There's also the possibility of needing the better part of a day to dig out the road and/or the lifts immedately after the storm clears. Avy control after the first storm over the thin ice sheet that's there now is going to be tricky too.
4) The rain/snow line is not a foregone conclusion either. It fluctuates and you might hit the day it's high.

Baldy powder days can be great, but it's essential to call them as late as possible. I call them the night before and often review at 6-7AM before I head up there.

I'm aware of the $50 promotion and its requirement to reserve ahead. If that requirement is as much as 48 hours, it's virtually useless for scoring powder days IMHO given all the variables that affect Mt. Baldy.
Click to expand...


I totally agree that a good day on Wed is long odds, but what do I have to loose? The reservation is free, no cost if I don't go, and I am guaranteed a not to pay if I do go (they say reservations are limited, which is BS by the way). Am I missing something?
 
If there are really no restrictions or no-show penalties, I'd reserve every day next week starting Tuesday or Wednesday and then pick the right one at the last minute.

I forgot:
5) The first storm could hit and clear early, so Baldy could get tracked out Tuesday. I've personally made this blunder twice.
 
Tony Crocker":28av09it said:
If there are really no restrictions or no-show penalties, I'd reserve every day next week starting Tuesday or Wednesday and then pick the right one at the last minute.
Click to expand...

No penalties but you can only reserve one day at at time and I can't go Tuesday and leave for UT on Thursday so I figured why not. Trust me, I'm a pessamist, and have gone to baldy enough to know how the stars need to align to get a good day there. I was there Presidents day last year when nothing opened.
 
I'll be at Baldy on Wednesday as well, come hell or high water (or both). Chair 1 almost definitely won't be there yet, but off-trail on Thunder should be dandy with a foot or more new.

Heavy snow on top of the current layer of bulletproof will make for interesting conditions out there, moreso in the backcountry. Expect some slides in the Baldy Bowl for sure.
 
Just to chime in, from Flagstaff, AZ NWS:
STARTING MONDAY AND LASTING THROUGH NEXT WEEK...AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
JET STREAM WILL MOVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES WITH A SERIES
OF PACIFIC STORMS SET TO HEAD ACROSS ARIZONA. A SIGNIFICANT FETCH OF
MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SERIES OF STORMS AND PERIODS
OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW AND LOWER ELEVATION ARE NEARLY CERTAIN.
SEVERAL FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE IN THE MOUNTAIN AREAS BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM OVER YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES.
STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES AS THIS SERIES OF STORMS APPROACHES.
Click to expand...

I actually pulled the plug on going up to Flagstaff this weekend to do a day at Snowbowl and a day of nordic since surfaces seem to have taken a beating up there this week with temperatures up in the 40s. I'll be out in New Mexico next weekend if weather permits for 3 days, and have flexibility with my time on Sunday and Monday. Thinking I may make a visit to Sandia and/or Santa Fe, and possibly come back through Sunrise in Arizona if this all pans out.

Haven't had the drive since my days in Colorado around New Year's to get out and go, but if fresh snow comes in, good deal!
 
Admin":1c5q6zla said:
cweinman":1c5q6zla said:
Thinking I may make a visit to Sandia and/or Santa Fe
Click to expand...

Skip Sandia and go straight to Santa Fe.
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Part of me is thinking that way, but if we're just looking for a part-day fix since focus of the trip isn't skiing, we may still just check out Sandia to ride the aerial tram and ski a few hours. It looks like the sort of place that may be worth visiting once, plus from what I've heard, Santa Fe needs to get some major snow in the coming week to be worth it.

Going to pull the trigger on a long weekend to week long trip for President's Day early February based on conditions/pattern (wife's vacation situation is the X-factor right now). Northern NM (Taos, Angel Fire, Santa Fe) will be in the short list if bases get going there. Telluride, Crested Butte, or Aspen are other potential options; will probably save SLC for another time I think.

I used to love high pressure ridges in the west since it usually meant stormy weather in the east... Not any longer :-) .
 
cweinman":qssmgj1i said:
we may still just check out Sandia to ride the aerial tram and ski a few hours.
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Sandia's fine for a short visit... during a couple snowy seasons, I did some nice x-c skiing on the east side of the Sandias.
 
I went to Sandia in 2007 because it was close for making a late afternoon flight out of Albuquerque. But if you're driving Santa Fe is far superior.

With regard to the storm forecast:
1) First storm through Tuesday will have some mixed snow levels.
2) No real break between the storms. Wednesday/Thursday bigger storms with lower snow levels. If I had to pick a day for Baldy it would be Friday. Not sure that works for me since I leave for Canada Saturday morning.
 
OK, so, never was in love with a lot of powder from the school age years. After seeing the drivers, skiers, falling and trying to dig myself out, poor visibility, gasping for air in sinking powder I just don't love lots of powder. After 22 days of skiing so far this season, I am really beat up. Broken finger from snow mobile starter, fell on it in the pow, ah..........! I am an unpopular fan of groomers with a little extra powder. Having been drug through lots of trees, back country, etc. it just does not send me that way it does others. Fun, yes, but, I enjoy skiing with my friends far more than a deep patch of powder.

Hope you all stay out of the tree wells (we had to search for little kids yesterday, friends kids in the pow) and keep safe on the roads. The road to Mammoth was full of accidents, ambulances, counted 8 from L.A., etc. For me nothing like a warm sunny spring day! I am not a powder hound! :snowball fight:
 
socal":30roed9h said:
Tony Crocker":30roed9h said:
If there are really no restrictions or no-show penalties, I'd reserve every day next week starting Tuesday or Wednesday and then pick the right one at the last minute.
Click to expand...

No penalties but you can only reserve one day at at time and I can't go Tuesday and leave for UT on Thursday so I figured why not. Trust me, I'm a pessamist, and have gone to baldy enough to know how the stars need to align to get a good day there. I was there Presidents day last year when nothing opened.
Click to expand...


Yep, gotta wait while they dig out. Not like other resorts that have the drive and manpower to get her going! You have to know the situation there. They don't work all night to make it work in the day like other resorts. They get up out of their slumber and move when they feel the urge. It is very hard to hit Baldy on a great day. It is possible, but, not likely!
 
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