Some hope for Utah?

mbaydala

mbaydala

New member
I just found this on Best Ski weather .com. Hopefully they are correct, God knows we can used it. My gut tells me something different though I'm thinking 12 inches is a real stretch. Seems quite optimistic to me but he is the one with the meteorology degree, not me.

Dr. Weather---James Roemer
• 11/26/2007 - UPDATED!!!! FORECAST FOR UTAH SKI AREAS---WASATCH/COTTONWOOD--Sponsored by our favorite resort..Snowbird Mountain
go to http://www.snowbird.com and check out everything great going on at Snowbird-----

(WE ARE UPPING THE POSSIBILITY THAT SNOWBIRD TO ALTA AND SOME OTHER AREAS OF THE COTTOWOOD VALLEY MAY GET AT LEAST 3-5" AND POSSIBLY 6-12" ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT TOMORROW THAT WILL STALL OVER UTAH. THEN, ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY PRODUCE A FEW INCHES FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.
 
My untrained eye likewise thinks it's a bit optimistic - remember his sponsor - as the system appears to me to be somewhat moisture-starved. Local meteos are saying "a few inches" for the mountains. Much more noteworthy, though, this appears to be the beginning of a slow pattern change. Gwest, your thoughts?
 
True, I hear that about the sponsor comment but then again I was just looking at some new model data and there appears to be a bit more moisture with this storm, still don't see 12 inches though. I don't really know how to forecast lake effect though, so maybe thats where he is getting the 12 inches from.

That being said, about the pattern changing. I don't see things getting better in our area until that BIG High Pressure moves away from the west coast. Every day or so the GFS trys to break down the ridge in the 10-16 period and it just hasn't happened. I too would love to hear what qwest has to say about it.
 
Admin":1w6z433k said:
- remember his sponsor -
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I’m glad others see through this. It seems like sometimes…

1. Resort sponsors Roemer.

2. “Optimistic” snowfall forecasts are made.

3. Resort slant sticks and is comfortable reporting totals up to the max that was forecasted.

4. Forecast seems to be nailed even though it might have been a bust.

5. The vicious cycle continues.
 
Just checking out the latest from the National Weather Service and I wouldn't get too excited until we see a solid 6 -10 inches on the ground Wednesday morning but here is their thinking as of 9:45 pm.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...POTENTIAL FOR LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS
IS LOOKING BETTER. DEEP INSTABILITY AND BETTER UPSTREAM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY ARE INDICATED IN THE 00Z RUNS. ALSO...THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW STAYS NORTHWESTERLY MUCH LONGER THAN IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS.
THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR CONTINUED SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY
NIGHT. ULTIMATELY THIS COULD END UP BEING AN ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT
FOR THE COTTONWOODS.
 
Well, we lucked out on that one. Certainly everyone I talked to, including my adviser who has more experience than me, didn't think it would produce like it did. I think Roemer's forecast was a good one, maybe. 3-5" seemed like a good bet, but there was the possibility of 6-12" if the lake kicked in. He only mentioned the cold front and not the lake effect. The front gave us 5-6", which was a surprise, but the front ended up being juicier and very slow moving. Which is why it snowed on campus for about 5hrs (!!!!), which we definitely did not forecast about 3 hrs prior in out weather discussion. The student forecasters put up .04" at the airport for the whole event, which no one contested. They ended up getting .20".
utahskiweather.com went 5-8", which was more than i would've forecast if i was the forecaster on tuesday, but ended up verifying pretty well, with about 6-9" falling (and 10" some select areas). Leigh who was forecasting has an unbelievable knack for going out on a limb and nailing it consistently.
Anyway, pleasant surprise, but doesnt do much for base building, ..keep your fingers crossed for the next few days.
 
keep your fingers crossed for the next few days.
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Trust me I will be otherwise I may head up to Grand Targhee for the weekend. I was reading the NWS discussions and they seem more optomistic for this souther system in the wasatch. Whats your take?
 
well just got back from a day at Grand Targhee and we were skiing consistent knee deep snow all day long. They reported about 13 inches this morning and it was spectacular. I’ll post a report later tonight. Just got back from a 5 hour drive and I need to take a quick rest.
 
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