Utah trip advise
- Thread starter skimore
- Start date
Average incidence of snowfall in Utah is very flat by month November to April compared to other regions. In any given season snowfall is volatile and unpredictable as we all know.
So timing of ski trips (other than short notice chasing weather) should be concerned with adequate coverage early in the season and snow preservation in the late season. The Park City group and Snowbasin have issues on both ends and are best visited in the core of the season mid-January to mid-March.
For the high altitude and snow abundant Cottonwood Canyons it's usually good from before Christmas until mid-to-late April closings, with Alta and Brighton being the best bets early season and Snowbird late season.
With regard to powder, admin and other locals can correct me but my impression is that January is a bit less competitive for first tracks in terms of visiting tourists than the other winter months. Powder Mt. is the other way to escape crowds.
Maximum snowpack is most often in March, but not quite as late as in Colorado as Utah is usually warmer.
So timing of ski trips (other than short notice chasing weather) should be concerned with adequate coverage early in the season and snow preservation in the late season. The Park City group and Snowbasin have issues on both ends and are best visited in the core of the season mid-January to mid-March.
For the high altitude and snow abundant Cottonwood Canyons it's usually good from before Christmas until mid-to-late April closings, with Alta and Brighton being the best bets early season and Snowbird late season.
With regard to powder, admin and other locals can correct me but my impression is that January is a bit less competitive for first tracks in terms of visiting tourists than the other winter months. Powder Mt. is the other way to escape crowds.
Maximum snowpack is most often in March, but not quite as late as in Colorado as Utah is usually warmer.
Marc_C
Active member
Perhaps. What I've found over the past 6 seasons though is that January tends to be our dry month. Yes, the snowfall statistics show it as flat, but that's been because of storms right around New Years and during the final week. But that middle 25 days can be - and has been - totally dry. Three seasons ago we had a 22 day inversion in January, with daily 45F and bright sun at 8500' (and 18F with dense fog and smog in the valley). Historically this hasn't been the case, but in recent years....Tony Crocker":3tf48bia said:
My advice for those who need to plan trips months in advance is to avoid January.
Unless you can book a cheap last-minute ticket (impossible from Syracuse), you're always rolling the dice when you fly somewhere, even to Utah. I remember January 2003, when a rain/freeze cycle turned both Snowbasin and Snowbird into vertical ice rinks on consecutive days. It's extremely rare, but I was there, and it sucked (and of course, the day I left, they got three feet).
On the other hand, here's what the first week of January looked like at Sundance last year. :lol:
On the other hand, here's what the first week of January looked like at Sundance last year. :lol:
Sorry, but anecdotal comments from January 2003, which I remember well as a bad month for Utah, are just statistical noise. Last January my progress reports mention 3+ feet over New Years, 3 feet mid-month and 3-5 feet late in the month.
Even 6 years might not mean much either. Mammoth averaged 247 inches of season snow over a 6-year period 1987-1992, 1/3 below its long term average.
I am firmly convinced that comments such as
Another way to look at it is that Alta averages 22 inches of snow per week in January with a standard deviation of 23 inches. That means close to 20% of January weeks would have no new snow at all based just on stats. Since short-term weather tends to persist (a snowy day or clear day may be due to a major weather pattern that lasts more than one day) the chance of a dry week in Utah might be closer to 30% than 20%. I should know. I've been going to Utah the second week of March for a decade and had several of them.
Looking at the brighter side, the above paragraph would also imply a 20-30% chance of at least 45 inches new snow. I can also tell you from my March experiences that the skiing in LCC is still usually very good during the no new snow weeks. Everyone remembers January 2003 because there was a warm spell followed by cold with no new snow. Furthermore November and December had also been below average so coverage was sketchy in many areas.
There's only one way to guarantee powder. Plan your trip no more than 2-3 days ahead. That usually means move to it, like admin did.
Even 6 years might not mean much either. Mammoth averaged 247 inches of season snow over a 6-year period 1987-1992, 1/3 below its long term average.
I am firmly convinced that comments such as
have no predictive value whatsoever. There is no meteorological reason why certain weeks would be consistently snowy and a couple of weeks between them would be consistently dry. I'd be more than delighted to set up a standing bet that Alta gets more than 4 feet of snow during those 25 middle days in January. Any takers?
Another way to look at it is that Alta averages 22 inches of snow per week in January with a standard deviation of 23 inches. That means close to 20% of January weeks would have no new snow at all based just on stats. Since short-term weather tends to persist (a snowy day or clear day may be due to a major weather pattern that lasts more than one day) the chance of a dry week in Utah might be closer to 30% than 20%. I should know. I've been going to Utah the second week of March for a decade and had several of them.
Looking at the brighter side, the above paragraph would also imply a 20-30% chance of at least 45 inches new snow. I can also tell you from my March experiences that the skiing in LCC is still usually very good during the no new snow weeks. Everyone remembers January 2003 because there was a warm spell followed by cold with no new snow. Furthermore November and December had also been below average so coverage was sketchy in many areas.
There's only one way to guarantee powder. Plan your trip no more than 2-3 days ahead. That usually means move to it, like admin did.
Euh... this was the point of my anecdote:
Tony Crocker":2te5rm56 said:
Marc_C
Active member
Of course anecdotes are statistical noise and last January was much better than Jan 2003. But it is true that our winter weather tends to come in 4 - 6 week wet/dry cycles and,generally, over the past 6 years, January tended to coincide with a dry period in the cycles. Also remember that 5 of those 6 years were part of a pretty severe drought in the intermountain west.Tony Crocker":36kamxah said:
Maybe this Jan will be at or above normal, maybe not, and 6" of snow after a dry week doesn't constitute a "dump" here*. But based on direct experience, if you can't fly out on short notice, February and early March are a safer bet. 50 year statistical averages and probabilities really don't matter since we are looking at short term fluctuations, where noise can be everything.
*: in fact the local wisdom is, "if you can feel bottom, it's not a powder day!". This translates into a minimum of about 9" - and a whole lot more if it's one of those 3% storms.
salida
New member
Marc_C":2q2rwenx said:
Come on, I'm sitting in the middle of tax-a-cussets, waiting for some friggin rime ice up in the Presis, just so I can hike 4500 vertical feet and scrape my way down an ice covered road and pretend I'm skiing. Yes, it will be a glorious day... but friggin hell, if thats what I dream about, I detest that you don't believe 9 inches is a powder day!
Let it snow soon, ski movies are hardly keeping me sane anymore. I'm on the edge.
Marc C's powder day comment is absolutely correct. Ski something steep like Palaviccini after a typical 6 inch light and dry Colorado snowfall and you'll find out. On 12 inches of Sierra or Cascade snow you will not hit bottom but unless you have bombproof technique you'll want fat skis to enjoy the 10+% powder. Thus with modern gear we do OK out here. But I'll agree that an LCC or Jackson powder day is still preferable most of the time. With regard to the East, when you factor in the not extreme pitch and blown-in snow, those pics we see from powderfreak et al of Jay and Stowe tree skiing are powder skiing by anyone's definition.
I completely agree that short term fluctuations determine the powder days. But I also think the belief that February and March produce more powder days than January in Utah is false. It's true sometimes in Colorado areas because often some terrain isn't adequately covered until mid-to-late January, and many Colorado areas do have higher average snowfall in March. But LCC/BCC must be fully covered in January 90+% of the time. Factor in lower skier traffic and less sun effect (Greely Bowl, Mineral Basin) and I would contend that January might be better odds for powder.
Sierra weather is even more prone than Utah to extended storm or dry cycles. But they do not recur at the same time of year from one season to the next. If they did they would show up in the monthly averages. For one particular week to be chronically low, some other week must be chronically high to offset it. And the adjoining months are unaffected by this or do they also have chronically high or low snowfall weeks? My wager offer still stands. I'll make it more flexible. Pick any stretch of 7 or more consecutive days in January and I'll bet Alta averages at least 2 inches a day new snow.
I completely agree that short term fluctuations determine the powder days. But I also think the belief that February and March produce more powder days than January in Utah is false. It's true sometimes in Colorado areas because often some terrain isn't adequately covered until mid-to-late January, and many Colorado areas do have higher average snowfall in March. But LCC/BCC must be fully covered in January 90+% of the time. Factor in lower skier traffic and less sun effect (Greely Bowl, Mineral Basin) and I would contend that January might be better odds for powder.
Sierra weather is even more prone than Utah to extended storm or dry cycles. But they do not recur at the same time of year from one season to the next. If they did they would show up in the monthly averages. For one particular week to be chronically low, some other week must be chronically high to offset it. And the adjoining months are unaffected by this or do they also have chronically high or low snowfall weeks? My wager offer still stands. I'll make it more flexible. Pick any stretch of 7 or more consecutive days in January and I'll bet Alta averages at least 2 inches a day new snow.
lookn4powder
New member
salida":1i8osivz said:
It isn't! As they say: "Life begins at 40"--40 cm of powder, that is.
Marc_C":1i8osivz said:
Yep, we experienced these dry spells and inversions in '04 and '05. We tend to remember them a little more than the other years when we had great January Utah snow. After all, how could I ever forget my misguided venture onto an iced-over High Traverse where I totally focused on maintaining a strong edge when the consequence of breaking loose was a slide for life? (This gave me a new appreciation for the length of the High Traverse.) I remember that experience more than the wonderful January 1995 trip where every day opened with 10-15" of fresh powder. After the first day we didn't feel bottom all week!
So, with knowledge of Tony's immaculate statistics, I cannot go against his bet here, but I still feel that twice bitten, thrice shy. But we also have the luxury of grabbing a last minute flight to SLC.
salida":1i8osivz said:
Agreed!!
Cheers,
Jeff
How much personal experience is enough to influence these ski trip decisions? In my case I gave up an annual spot at Island Lake Lodge snowcat skiing after 2 close calls with rain partway up the hill just before my trips in 2003 and 2004. When you factor in that Fernie had really bad seasons in 2001 and 2005, I decided that the weather risk was unacceptable to make a ~$2000 commitment far in advance. I don't intend this as a criticism of skiing Fernie in general. If the weather is too warm you have Castle Mt. and The Big Mountain in the neighborhood as alternatives. But my standards are higher for cat skiing due to the much higher cost.
It helps that I've been reading Craig Morris' Fernie reports for a decade and know that low elevation rain is not an anomaly there. January 2003 in Utah was a more rare situation IMHO.
It helps that I've been reading Craig Morris' Fernie reports for a decade and know that low elevation rain is not an anomaly there. January 2003 in Utah was a more rare situation IMHO.
jasoncapecod
Well-known member
Rain is the main reason why i will not go back to Sun Valley. I have had my share of rainy ski days in the North East. Rain is unacceptable when i am laying out thousands of dollars. I hope i haven't jinxed my Park City trip this Feb :wink:
This is another situation where you have to do a little research to determine whether your bad experience was an anomaly or within the normal range of experience. Sun Valley's altitude of 6,000 - 9,000 should not get much rain at its latitude (similar to Bachelor in one direction and Jackson in the other). The usual problem there is low natural snowfall, though they have a bigtime snowmaking system to help it out. The big rain events at Sun Valley AFAIK are the ones like New Year's 1997 and Tropical Punch January 2005 that hit a whole bunch of areas. The former brought rain to Alta and the latter to Canadian cat/heli areas as far north/inland as Revelstoke/Rogers Pass.
We all remember the extreme events, particularly the bad ones. Utah's January 2003 would probably have been an average winter month in the Northeast, but to their jaded locals it stuck out like a sore thumb.
In general jasoncapecod's philosophy on booking ski trips is correct. You can't expect powder days, but if you do your homework you can minimize the chance of crummy conditions. When I get them it's useful to know whether it was due to a bad choice (Jackson late March 1986) or due to $#!& happens (cat skiing after the Tropical Punch). Utah's January 2003 was $#!& happens.
We all remember the extreme events, particularly the bad ones. Utah's January 2003 would probably have been an average winter month in the Northeast, but to their jaded locals it stuck out like a sore thumb.
In general jasoncapecod's philosophy on booking ski trips is correct. You can't expect powder days, but if you do your homework you can minimize the chance of crummy conditions. When I get them it's useful to know whether it was due to a bad choice (Jackson late March 1986) or due to $#!& happens (cat skiing after the Tropical Punch). Utah's January 2003 was $#!& happens.