I understood when October 20th rolled around, and there was no snow, but now it's the 24th, and there are clear skies forecast for at least 10 more days. The only area is mammoth, which is 5 percent open. It seems that recent storms have had fairly high snow levels and were mostly rain at the ski area's. Now let's look at the PNW this time last year. "No one is open except for Timberline's Palmer lift. Recent storms have had mostly high snow levels and were mostly rain at the ski areas." With that said, what is the odds of the ski areas having a season that falls short of 76-77? Would you reccomend calling off my December 22th week long trip at squaw valley? I hope to get some pow turns in at Red Dog and KT-22. What are the odds of them being closed this holiday? (El 6200) Thanks
Very poor thanksgiving skiing at california.
- Thread starter jon1233
- Start date
Squaw needs about a 6-foot base for KT/Red Dog to have good skiing. If you can get out now without losing big $ I would definitely do it.
The weather forecasts do show the Sierra getting some snow late this coming week. But we're going to need a classic Sierra dump to get Squaw steeps skiable within 3 weeks. Odds of that are maybe 1/4 to 1/3.
The weather forecasts do show the Sierra getting some snow late this coming week. But we're going to need a classic Sierra dump to get Squaw steeps skiable within 3 weeks. Odds of that are maybe 1/4 to 1/3.
Mark Renson
New member
I feel your pain, man. Being a Monday Morning Quarterback, I'd say that your best bet for last weekend woulda' been to take a Red Eye into Logan International on Wednesday noght and head out on Route 2 to get a taste of that Central Mass Champagne 8) :
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards ... php?t=1354
Ummmm .....on 2nd thought it's still early in the season and things out there could change in 11 days, so maybe it ain't a bad idea to wait for things to improve in Cali.
http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards ... php?t=1354
Ummmm .....on 2nd thought it's still early in the season and things out there could change in 11 days, so maybe it ain't a bad idea to wait for things to improve in Cali.
Killclimbz
New member
From what I am hearing, Cali is getting a flake or two at the moment. You might do alright to stick to your guns...
edit: how dat? :lol:
edit: how dat? :lol:
There's been about a foot so far, probably another foot coming. That's definitely not "nuked" by Sierra standards.
At least two more storms the size of this one are needed to make Squaw worthwhile IMHO. I'd guess your odds for Dec. 22 are 40-50% now.
At least two more storms the size of this one are needed to make Squaw worthwhile IMHO. I'd guess your odds for Dec. 22 are 40-50% now.
Killclimbz
New member
Hey I had heard two feet out of the storm. That's a pretty good dump by any standard. It sounded like storms were finally starting to line up, so hopefully Cali will get pounded. I'll edit my post...
The recent storm only totalled one foot at Mammoth. Squaw had 26 inches at high elevation but only 9 at the base. A similar size storm is predicted for Thursday/Friday.
The http://www.snow-forecast.com/ maps have been showing snow levels close to the base elevations at Tahoe, so I'd be somewhat skeptical about Squaw. Kirkwood, Sugar Bowl, Alpine Meadows in that order are most likely to produce acceptable coverage by Christmas. When these areas open up this weekend, I do not expect high percentages of terrain.
Unlike last year, the last storm showed the more normal pattern of more snow at the Sierra Crest west of Tahoe than at Mammoth. Thursday/ Friday storm will push farther south, including here but with snow levels way too high in SoCal.
The http://www.snow-forecast.com/ maps have been showing snow levels close to the base elevations at Tahoe, so I'd be somewhat skeptical about Squaw. Kirkwood, Sugar Bowl, Alpine Meadows in that order are most likely to produce acceptable coverage by Christmas. When these areas open up this weekend, I do not expect high percentages of terrain.
Unlike last year, the last storm showed the more normal pattern of more snow at the Sierra Crest west of Tahoe than at Mammoth. Thursday/ Friday storm will push farther south, including here but with snow levels way too high in SoCal.
Heavenly normally gets less snow than the areas west of it on the Sierra Crest. But it does have high elevation, so the Sky/Dipper areas can have good snow when cover is thin or it rains down lower. The old tram and the new gondola both provide upload/download capacity into these areas. Due to its lower snowfall Heavenly has the most snowmaking capacity at Tahoe, so this coming weekend it might actually be one of the better places.
Once you get into the holidays heavy skier traffic will make Heavenly quite unpleasant if the natural snowbase is still low and you pile all those people onto the snowmaking trails.
Nobody in the Sierra has "a lot of snow" yet.
Once you get into the holidays heavy skier traffic will make Heavenly quite unpleasant if the natural snowbase is still low and you pile all those people onto the snowmaking trails.
Nobody in the Sierra has "a lot of snow" yet.
A more thorough response to the first question, using detail of 37 years at Mammoth. I'm defining poor conditions as 30% or less open.
15 seasons were poor as of Dec. 1
6 seasons were poor as of Jan. 1
4 seasons were poor as of Feb. 1
2 seasons were poor as of Mar. 1
Only 1976-77 was poor for the whole season.
So from where we sit now I see the odds of remaining poor at New Year's as 6/15 = 40%
As I have mentioned before odds should be better at Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl, which average much more snowfall, and about the same at Alpine Meadows. Though the upper reaches of Squaw get a lot of snow, altitude and coverage issues make it a longer shot than Mammoth IMHO.
For what it's worth out of the 15 seasons that were bad Dec. 1 the ones that improved in the first half of December (which is what is happening now) tended to improve further later in the month.
15 seasons were poor as of Dec. 1
6 seasons were poor as of Jan. 1
4 seasons were poor as of Feb. 1
2 seasons were poor as of Mar. 1
Only 1976-77 was poor for the whole season.
So from where we sit now I see the odds of remaining poor at New Year's as 6/15 = 40%
As I have mentioned before odds should be better at Kirkwood and Sugar Bowl, which average much more snowfall, and about the same at Alpine Meadows. Though the upper reaches of Squaw get a lot of snow, altitude and coverage issues make it a longer shot than Mammoth IMHO.
For what it's worth out of the 15 seasons that were bad Dec. 1 the ones that improved in the first half of December (which is what is happening now) tended to improve further later in the month.
option_ride
New member
Damn Tony, you must have a memory like an elephant.
I can't even remember the names of the runs I rode last week, much less all the detail you remember about all these places.
If the Internet ever goes down I'm calling you....
I can't even remember the names of the runs I rode last week, much less all the detail you remember about all these places. If the Internet ever goes down I'm calling you....