Mind you, this is my own pure speculation with a little bit of inside knowledge, a sprinkle of gut feeling and a large dose of intuition thrown in for good measure.
That said, I'd give it better than 50/50 odds. I think that it's got a better chance of happening now than I did just a few years ago, or even six months ago. There's a strong push from all sides to develop
some kind of alternative, the need for which was provided by
Sunday's cluster in the canyon as Exhibit A. The enviros, however, are torn; while they have a strong desire to see less vehicular traffic in the canyon (and therefore less vehicle exhaust) they also have an extremely strong backcountry ski lobby fighting hard to prevent the loss of any more terrain to lift-served skiing.
I'm therefore unsure what form it would take, but I'd give better odds to a ski lift solution than I would to tunnels because tunnels would merely put more vehicles in the canyons, not fewer. That said, there are quite a few things that have gone on in the past year that have given this whole concept a new impetus:
1. There's a strong will in both our state and federal congressional delegations, and remember that we're the reddest of the red states.
2. In connection with #1, above, the current economic realities provide a renewed motivation.
3. A delegation of state and local officials traveled to Europe last year to see first-hand cog railways in action like the one that, in one proposal, would run up LCC.
4. There are currently US DOT studies underway associated with option #3, above.
5. The population of the Salt Lake Valley is anticipated to double within the next 30 years.
6. We've been extremely, extremely lucky over the past 75 years. Historically there's been only one avalanche-related highway fatality in the canyon, and that occurred to a snow plow driver in the middle of the night in the 1950s. The whole thing, though, is a ticking time bomb. One of these days the proverbial red snake of vehicles in the canyon is going to get taken out, and the potential for significant loss of life in such a scenario is huge. Avalanche mitigation is still a very inexact science and no matter how stable you think it is, it can still let go. For a taste of what it takes to keep that road open watch any of these video clips from the Discovery Channel's three-part series on the LCC road:
http://dsc.discovery.com/videos/snow-men/
Factors weighing against anything happening soon:
1. The whole idea has a history of inaction. Keep in mind that UDOT didn't even take over avalanche control in the canyons until the mid-1980s, and since then improvements like avalanche sheds, etc. have been put off repeatedly.
2. The aforementioned environmental lobby is very strong, including (Save Us From) Save Our Canyons :wink: , the Sierra Club, Heli-Free Wasatch, etc. For a flavor of how the opposition feels read this recent blog entry from Andrew McLean:
http://straightchuter.com/2012/02/wasat ... beheading/
3. The U.S. Forest Service isn't exactly on board, and they own the vast majority of the land involved.
I would personally love to see something happen. It has to happen, I'm just unsure what form it's going to take. The only solution that would make groups like Save Our Canyons happy would be to remove the ski areas altogether and gate off the canyons so that only they can use them. I'm starting to believe, however, that our government officials just might railroad something past them.