powderfreak
New member
Executive Summary:
Temperatures remain below normal through next weekend with occasional periods of snow. Best chance of accumulating snowfall will be Tuesday through Thursday morning where I expect most mountains from MRG/SB northward to see 4-8" of additional accumulations, but in this pattern it is nearly impossible to pin down exact numbers. Needless to say, someone might only see 3" and someone else might see a foot but if its going to snow it'll happen between Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. Another round of snow showers could occur over the weekend but I won't go there yet. Temperatures will stay below freezing on the mountain with lower elevations seeing highs in the 30-35F range and lows in the teens. Mountain temps will generally be in the teens and twenties.
Discussion:
High latitude blocking is progged on the GFS and EURO to last through the day 8-10 time frame as higher than average heights stay put across the arctic with lower than normal heights across the northeast. Blocks generally do not break down easily so this thing might stick around in some form or another through the first week of April. GFS through early April, keeps the north country at or below normal through April 5th. All systems look go for winter to hold on for another two weeks, however, with strong blocking in eastern Canada and a spring Polar Vortex backing into the region, no big storms are in sight for now...but I have ideas on how we can get one up here.
The next few days will see moisture from the strong upper level low that is stuck under the high pressure block to the NNE of New England, thrown back into northern NY, VT, and NH. Tuesday through Thursday should see a continuation of the moist, NW flow with one burst of moisture and some frontogenic forcing on Tuesday morning through early afternoon...and then another burst on Wednesday. While Tuesday could be a good snow producer, it looks a little less impressive than it did a few days ago. The reason being that the low pressure system backing into the region looks to split and/or back too far to the west to provide us with the stronger NW winds needed for significant upslope snowfall. The cold core aloft with surface heating from the March sun will set off some convective snow showers across the mountains on Thursday so someone could see a quick 1" or 2" as wind speeds could be next to nothing, so any snow showers that pop up could sit for a little while. It is a similar pattern as in the fall when we get a cold core low pressure system sitting aloft with sun heating the surface leading to some instability popcorn (equal parts sun and clouds with cellular looking SHSN) showers of rain, sleet, or hail...except it'll be snow now.
Friday looks like a nice day, temperatures will be moderating throughout the week but remaining below normal. This weekend, another low pressure system will be surpressed south due to the strong confluent flow across the Mid-Atlantic thanks to our northern blocking pattern, but some moisture could get wrapped into the region in the form of snow showers. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal.
Next week looks average to below temperatures, blocking continues to retrograde across Canada and might actually allow a storm to form so that will need to be watched as the next possible widespread precipitation event. Cold air could stick around through early April so at the very least, our snowpack will be preserved for a little while longer and at best, it will continue to grow with occasional bouts of snow!
Enjoy!
-Scott
Temperatures remain below normal through next weekend with occasional periods of snow. Best chance of accumulating snowfall will be Tuesday through Thursday morning where I expect most mountains from MRG/SB northward to see 4-8" of additional accumulations, but in this pattern it is nearly impossible to pin down exact numbers. Needless to say, someone might only see 3" and someone else might see a foot but if its going to snow it'll happen between Tuesday morning through Thursday morning. Another round of snow showers could occur over the weekend but I won't go there yet. Temperatures will stay below freezing on the mountain with lower elevations seeing highs in the 30-35F range and lows in the teens. Mountain temps will generally be in the teens and twenties.
Discussion:
High latitude blocking is progged on the GFS and EURO to last through the day 8-10 time frame as higher than average heights stay put across the arctic with lower than normal heights across the northeast. Blocks generally do not break down easily so this thing might stick around in some form or another through the first week of April. GFS through early April, keeps the north country at or below normal through April 5th. All systems look go for winter to hold on for another two weeks, however, with strong blocking in eastern Canada and a spring Polar Vortex backing into the region, no big storms are in sight for now...but I have ideas on how we can get one up here.
The next few days will see moisture from the strong upper level low that is stuck under the high pressure block to the NNE of New England, thrown back into northern NY, VT, and NH. Tuesday through Thursday should see a continuation of the moist, NW flow with one burst of moisture and some frontogenic forcing on Tuesday morning through early afternoon...and then another burst on Wednesday. While Tuesday could be a good snow producer, it looks a little less impressive than it did a few days ago. The reason being that the low pressure system backing into the region looks to split and/or back too far to the west to provide us with the stronger NW winds needed for significant upslope snowfall. The cold core aloft with surface heating from the March sun will set off some convective snow showers across the mountains on Thursday so someone could see a quick 1" or 2" as wind speeds could be next to nothing, so any snow showers that pop up could sit for a little while. It is a similar pattern as in the fall when we get a cold core low pressure system sitting aloft with sun heating the surface leading to some instability popcorn (equal parts sun and clouds with cellular looking SHSN) showers of rain, sleet, or hail...except it'll be snow now.
Friday looks like a nice day, temperatures will be moderating throughout the week but remaining below normal. This weekend, another low pressure system will be surpressed south due to the strong confluent flow across the Mid-Atlantic thanks to our northern blocking pattern, but some moisture could get wrapped into the region in the form of snow showers. Temperatures will be at or slightly below normal.
Next week looks average to below temperatures, blocking continues to retrograde across Canada and might actually allow a storm to form so that will need to be watched as the next possible widespread precipitation event. Cold air could stick around through early April so at the very least, our snowpack will be preserved for a little while longer and at best, it will continue to grow with occasional bouts of snow!
Enjoy!
-Scott