What week would you go to Utah?

Sharon

Sharon

New member
I need to book my plane vouchers early (because they book up fast). Got bumped from a NWA flight on the way back from San Diego. Tried to use them this summer...no luck. So, I'll use them to fly to SLC.

I know the odds are about even for powder from Jan-Apr. I usually go the first week of Feb. I'm thinking about going later, like in April, for the warmer weather...maybe 2nd week (easter).

Tony, you've got the stats...anyone else gotta hunch?

My hunch is still with the first week of Feb. What do you think about early April for powder? Are the odds still the same?

-Sh
 
Sharon":2dq4bjrw said:
My hunch is still with the first week of Feb. What do you think about early April for powder? Are the odds still the same?
Click to expand...
I'll let Tony play with the numbers. Empirically, based on 6 years here, a given week in April will likely be spring skiing. Doesn't mean there won't be powder - doesn't mean it won't be as excellent as it can be. But what is likely, as contrasted with mid-winter, is that when it does snow,

* you'll get a nice hard crust underneath. So suddenly instead of 8" of refreshing powder that skis beautifully in February, you now need 18" (or more if it's low density) to not scrape bottom on each turn.

* once the sun comes out after the storm, it goes to thick goopy mashed potatoes very quickly

* any spring corn that formed is now back to needing a multi-day freeze/thaw cycle to reform - in the mean time it's thick crud that's often unskiable until after several hours of direct sun.

If you're here in early April and it doesn't snow that week, don't be surprised if the skiing sucks until late morning when things have had a chance to soften. There were many days this past April where we didn't bother starting our day till 11a or so, and even then on sunny groomers or pure south aspects.

The point is, if you're looking for powder, Feb is a better bet, even if it doesn't snow or snow that much.
 
Month Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.
Seasons 39 40 40 39 40 40
Average 79.85 97.70 95.10 87.27 92.69 73.29
Std. Dev. 43.21 48.78 38.81 27.00 34.84 33.54

The above stats are for Alta, not including this year. Noting the standard deviations, you can see how consistent the monthly averages are, with just a slight decline in April. Those standard deviations also tell you that there are no guarantees.

I've read enough of your reports: you like powder, and don't particularly care if the weather is cold. Therefore you should probably stick to your early February dates. You should have read enough of my reports to note the swift transition to spring conditions in warm weather in early March. It's going to be even faster in April.

The only point you might argue in the other direction is competition for powder. But the Cottonwood Canyons areas are a well established spring break destination, and I'd be surprised if end of March skier visits are any lower than early February. And we've read enough of admin's reports to know that the local powderhounds will keep coming every time there's a significant dump.

So I think you're better off earlier. You can hit the marquee areas during the big powder dumps, and then you have a good shot at high quality leftovers at places like Powder Mt. the next few days. I think those leftovers would be pretty crappy in April.

I'll second Marc C.'s comments about the spring transitions too. Those are much better at Mammoth and Mt. Bachelor. During my early March week the north facing steeps at Snowbird usually still have winter snow even when it's warm. If those have gone to spring conditions too, you're not going to be skiing off-piste much until late morning. And if you're going to be dependent on groomers for much your ski day, you're better off at a place like Vail or Mammoth that does more of it.
 
Thanks Tony...that is good advice and that was where my hunch is.

Marc, I was thinking April so that Bubba would be happy with less cold conditions...but to quote Acid Christ "it's warmer in SLC than in the east ANY time of winter". Bubba isn't really keen on cold weather and he hasn't joined me on these trips because he isn't THAT into skiing and doesn't want to use his vacation time for winter activities. I think he'll be happy sipping a 3.2 beer on the deck in the afternoon sunshine while we tire ourselves out. Now that Amy has a hot tub (as well as a private room with a king bed and bathroom), it is more enticing for him to go. He also didn't buy a GP seasons pass, so he won't mind buying the extra lift tix.

Now, I'm debating over the last week of January vs the first week of Feb.

Last year, Jan wasn't so great...but I know you can't go on anything based on one year. I've been there in December with 100 fresh inches of snow.

I also know that there is really hardly a difference in one week, however, based on your stats, the last week in Jan seems like it may have a higher probability if you plot those numbers on a graph.

Am I splitting hairs? ok, ok ...

But I'm thinking there will be fewer crowds the last week of January than the first week of February. Marc, do you think there is a difference in that regard?
 
You're splitting hairs. Keep those standard deviations in mind. There is no statistically meaningful difference in powder odds between whenever the rocks get covered (average mid-December) and early April. Sometime in March the subsurface issues MarcC mentions start coming into play, and they gradually become more of an issue the later you go.

LCC is not an ideal choice for casual or low-end skiers. Definitely not a matter of temperature, mainly terrain difficulty and fewer non-ski options.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top