Tony Crocker":3lscgq0m said:
What happened to the PNW getting shafted due to El Nino?
I've discussed this before:
1) Whistler alpine microclimate shows minimal long term sensitivity to El Nino.
2) The moderate El Nino years do not validate as well as the stronger ones. The last one 3 years ago was 119% in western Canada and 65% in California.
Some of the weather geeks also mention the Pacific Decadal Oscillation
http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/, which tends to produce results somewhat like El Nino in its positive phase and more like la Nina in its negative phase. It was negative in the 1970's, postive most of the 1980's and 1990's and is likely on a negative trend now. The big El Ninos of 1982-83 and 1997-98 had PDO influencing weather in the same direction, which may not be the case in 2006-07 or now. FYI Whistler's November record before this year was 163 inches in 2006.
163" (414cm) is a whack o snow by any and all accounts for November anywhere. Actually not to put too fine a point on it Mr. C but, the official W/B website had claimed on the day the mark fell that the previous record was indeed 416cm in November. Now I am a stickler for details, but we are only talking 2cm (about 3/4") so we can call it a push. Excited as I and many others may be about all the ski-porn going on at present on Canada's left coast, it appears at least for now that the snow hose that has been spewing the white stuff all over the Coast Mountain range and to lesser degree in the interior, has begun to abate somewhat and I wonder, as I am want to do, just what is in store for the rest of the season. Will this be a record breaking winter or has the best and biggest come and gone? To date, W/B has received 530cm (~209") and some local accounts I've read claim that it was well into the New Year last season before anything like that was even approached. I can't specifically recall but I remember it being a tough year all around in BC
I looked back on the past "State of the Mountains" report posted on the usually excellent but not always frequently updated
http://www.powderwatch.com to see what happened at W/B (and the rest of BC) after November 2006 and found that as of Dec 29th 2006, Powderwatch had reported W/B to have received 684cm and so had received 268-270cm in December of that year. So this year it would appear that the end of December mark from 2006 is well within range and really should be eclipsed in early December or at least by the month-end even if they should only receive 55-60% of what they got back in Dec 06. So I am wondering what W/B's standing record is at the end of December, end of January and so on and when they occurred. I imagine that you have these details, N'est pas?
My interest isn't purely accademic, I have not been to Whistler in many years, but watch it closely as I do my favourite Interior resorts. I go West most every year and sometimes twice. This year I am taking my sons (16 & 17) out at Christmas 12/25 - 01/04. I booked flights back in October, long before the current BC powder luv-in began. We will hit KHMR, then RMR, and then my favourite, Red (love Rossland town) and value then Castle if it gets some snow between now and then. For me (and for a few long-time ski pals from ON) those four are the full-meal-deal. Very special places indeed (when you hit the right conditions) without the hoards found at W/B. My boys were out there with me in Jan of 2005 when one of my Ski Pals and I took the whole team out. As luck would have it we landed in BC just as the BIG WET Pineapple express hit and washed away a ton of fun. We missed the goods by one week. Timing is everything. To get out of the slop and fog we had to head to Lake Louise so everybody could get some decent turns in. Back out I went with the Pals in March of that year. Another bust to say the least. We have had as much luck as not, I'd say overall its about 50/50.
This year looks promising, I have been in the game too long to make predictions or get over confident. I will continue to monitor many sources and seek many opinions and points of view. I have really enjoyed reading the posts on this site over the last few years and the sage wisdom found herein. See on the slopes, but just not at Alta :-s
El Nino , La Nina , El Gato , El Cabron