berkshireskier
Active member
Accuweather's forecast for upcoming winter. As always, take it with a grain of salt.
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -for-c.asp
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/s ... -for-c.asp
Winter 2010-2011 weather forecast
- Thread starter berkshireskier
- Start date
longshanks
New member
Accuweather's Brett Anderson's long range forecast for Canada augers well for the West if snow and cold is your thing. Looks particulary promising for Eastern B.C. and the Rockies from Marmot to Castle. Long live La Nina! Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow...
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/an...nge-model-forecast-out-to-february-2011-1.asp
http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/an...nge-model-forecast-out-to-february-2011-1.asp
Looks like a standard La Nina forecast to me. FYI JUL/AUG MEI value of -1.81 is the strongest La Nina reading since 1975. http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/kla ... table.html
The MEI "tracks both sea and air temperatures along with wind, pressure and cloud cover across the tropical Pacific. The data is combined and normalized to a monthly value where +1 = one standard deviation above normal (El Nino condition) and -1 = one standard deviation below normal (La Nina condition)."
So 1.81 standard deviations from normal is a lot. But none of this matters much to the Utards. The Wasatch Mts. sit in a mid-latitude range that gets similar amounts of snow in northern trending La Nina years and southern trending El Nino years.
Detail regarding La Nina favored areas: http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/La_Nina.htm
So 1.81 standard deviations from normal is a lot. But none of this matters much to the Utards. The Wasatch Mts. sit in a mid-latitude range that gets similar amounts of snow in northern trending La Nina years and southern trending El Nino years.
Detail regarding La Nina favored areas: http://webpages.charter.net/tcrocker818/La_Nina.htm
icelanticskier
New member
Tony Crocker":4er7ttra said:
oh no tony, i think what marc wants is more details than that. where's jspin when we need him. jspin! i'm expecting a slightly better than average start here in the northeast with hot rain in jan and above normal temps and low precip in feb, then cold and dumpage in mar/april. perfect scenario really. good early skiing with some pow days. shitty resort skiing with awesome up high stable prezzy skiing including some delicious corn days in the direct sun in jan/feb. jan/feb will make most skiers give up/lose interest and when it goes from zero to hero come march, it'll be way less busy in our hills. i see killer pow days up high march into may with good cover through june.
it'll be perfect!!!!!
rog
longshanks
New member
Tony Crocker":2i6s0gk6 said:
Precisely what I was thinking when I saw that -1.81 value. Looks like the start of something good. I look forward to the October 12th update to see if the AUG/SEP MEI value deepens further
Yes, this is as close to reliable as you can get for a long range forecast. The positive effects of La Nina for PNW and northern Rockies of both U.S. and Canada have been consistent in the past. The season may not be a monster, but the there are NO below average La Nina seasons for the most sensitive areas (Washington State plus Rockies from Jackson to Revelstoke/Sunshine).longshanks":28b86kk3 said:
The other part of forecast reliability is how long the La Nina will be in effect. Historically the MEI readings are very stable from July through January. They are most likely to break up during the northern spring, as the El Nino did this year.
mbaydala
New member
Check out this link. It simplifies long range forecasts for those who don't want to read lengthy discussions.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...ason/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.php
mbaydala
New member
If you recall last winter we were in the so called neutral zone all winter precipitation wise and we were supposed to be in the above normal temperature zone all winter as well.
This winter at least we have a slight chance of above normal precipitation for the heart of the winter and are temperatures aren't supposed to be above normal, like last year. All in all I look at this forecast to be a pretty positive one.
This winter at least we have a slight chance of above normal precipitation for the heart of the winter and are temperatures aren't supposed to be above normal, like last year. All in all I look at this forecast to be a pretty positive one.
longshanks
New member
longshanks":2l5a3n8c said:
The October update came a bit early....http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/people/klaus.wolter/MEI/table.html
The AUG/SEP MEI value (-1.99) did indeed deepen further and we have to now go back to MAY/JUN & JUL/AUG of 1955 to find a stronger La Nina.
It will be interesting to see if the trend continues and if the November update reveals a new 61 year low
longshanks
New member
longshanks":i7hf87mk said:
And...this echoes what was covered already in General Discussion area on 9/27...http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=10&t=9071