advice for Colorado

[johnnash]

My wife and I bought Vail group season passes (seemed like a good idea in April, after last season!) and are flying out to Colorado this Saturday for 6 days of skiing. I’m painfully aware of the drought conditions :-( , but we’re trying to be philosophical. (After all, until this year we’ve been very lucky with conditions on all our trips out west, and even now, it’s gotta be a helluva lot better than anything around Washington DC !). Still, given the limited terrain open, we would like to do what we can to avoid crowds, and avoid terrain that has gotten trashed by the thundering herds over the Christmas- New Year week. I was just wondering if any of the Colorado cognoscenti might have some words of wisdom about how to do this. Are any of the Vail resorts likely to have lower density than others (or any particular areas within a resort)? Currently Vail is reporting the largest area of open terrain (ca. 1500 ac.), but Beaver Creek has almost as much (ca. 1350 ac.) and by far the highest percentage. BC is the only one of the 4 resorts that we’ve never visited, so I don’t know how crowded it usually is, but since it’s considerably smaller than Vail (from which I infer that it probably normally attracts fewer skiers)and has almost as much terrain open, I would tend to think it’s likely to be less crowded – and less skied out. We’re staying at Vail, so any other resort would involve a drive (albeit a short one in the case of BC) and paying for parking, but I’m thinking it may be worth it. Of course, one strategy would be just to sample a different resort each day the first 4 days, then return to the best one the last 2 days. But I figure that advance intel might save us a day or more of skiing crud in a crowd. Any advice much appreciated.

 

[EMSC]

I would think Vail and BC are your best bets. Breck might be worth a mid-week day sometime next week and I've never been a fan of Keystone which this year is probably very scrapey, man made exclusively. Unfortunately I have not been up to the central mtns this season for various reasons including the fact I didn't buy a pass anywhere up there. SO I don't have a lot of first hand info to give on current conditions. Beaver Creek should have the least crowded slopes but at least several of the main runs will still be scrapey man made. BC has no above treeline stuff really so the acreage count might actually mean more open runs than Vail. BC does have plenty of free parking available; though with either an access gondola or short free shuttle ride from there to the actual slopes (let me know if you need details). Don't miss out on the covered escalators from the shuttle drop off to the slopes at the main base area. It's kind of a trip to ride escalators in ski boots!

If I-70 disappoints you can always do a long day trip to Wolf Creek which is 100% open on a deep base

What type/level of skiing are you looking for?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Beaver Creek has the highest percent of terrain open and almost certainly had the least Christmas traffic. I read a report from Vail before Christmas on Epic and it was not good. The poster expected it to get much worse with the crowds later. Breck and Keystone rate to be worse. I do not see more than a few inches snow predicted for the I-70 corridor for the next week.

If you're haven't paid all your lodging in advance I would recommend you take at least half the week and go down to Wolf Creek. When you have a whole week 4 hours drive to relocate to decent snow after you have flown across the country is not unreasonable. Do not stay skunked if you have an alternative. No new snow expected there either, but 200 inches year to date and a 5 foot base means packed powder and no core shots. Durango is another 2 hours beyond Wolf Creek. It reports 97% open on a 3+ foot base, which should be adequate as it's a mainly intermediate area, about twice the acreage of Wolf Creek.

I'm guessing if you bought the VR passes you're considering coming back in March or April. Even in the Colorado disasters of 1977 and 1981 there was an adequate amount of snow in March. You'll get good use of the passes then and be much happier about it.

 

[schubwa]

I too so well remember the 76/77 winter, what a piece of $hit! But only because I was living in Mammoth. The moral of the story on a year like this is GO NORTH or GO SOUTH. No reason to suffer in the middle. Listen to Tony and let us know what you find.

 

[egieszl]

Let me give you a first hand Colorado report - the ski conditions are HORRIBLE. The worst Christmas conditions in the 26 years I've been skiing here. Runs are being opened with almost no snow coverage. I'm putting about $50 worth of damage into my skis a day.

I would advise you to stay away, cancel your plans and do something else. I'm at Snowmass and today we got the worst combination of events - high winds and high temperatures resulting in spring like conditions (never have I seen this in December) on many slopes that have about (no lying) 1-3 inches of depth and we lost a significant amount of snow on the upper slopes. Conditions have really declined in the past week and with very light holiday traffic. If the forecast holds true I expect portions of Snowmass will close over the next week.

There are numerous rocks, thin spots and bare spots to contend with. The problem with Colorado is that there is NO snow in the forecast until January 7 and high temperatures predicted for the next 10 days.

Also, Snowmass has had more natural snow than Vail and the summit county resorts, so that should give you a clue.

When I flew over Vail on December 16, the back bowls were completely brown (no snow at all) except for where they had some man-made near China Bowl Express.

 

[johnnash]

Many thanks to all the responders for your very useful counsel and information. Given the fact that air, lodging and lift tickets have all been nonrefundably paid, this trip is going to happen, though it may turn out to be more a vacation to enjoy the ambiance of the Colorado mountains with my wife than a ski trip. Egieszl’s first-hand report certainly helps to ‘’manage expectations’’, shall we say, so I guess I’ll look at any skiing we manage to do as a bonus. However, I do have a bit more faith in the magic of snowmaking – on groomers, at least -- than probably most folks who live in real ski country. Sounds like the consensus view (given that we’re stuck in Vail) is that this may be our year to get acquainted with The Beave, and just hope they have a crackerjack snowmaking team. I’m sure we’ll spend some time at Vail as well, especially on New Year’s Day (aka The Morning After New Year’s Eve), when I suspect we may not get a real early start. And I’d like to get to Breck for at least one day, since I’ve got a nice restaurant.com discount voucher for a restaurant at the base of Peak 9. (BTW, anyone who plans to go to Breck should check this out.) So, hopefully, I can give some firsthand feedback on these 3 at least. I have a soft spot in my heart for Keystone, since that was the first Summit Co. mountain I skied, but under these conditions, I may give that one a bye. Tony is correct that we hope to get back to Colorado in the spring, although I won’t be in any rush to make those rez until we see if the snow gods will show a bit more love. We also have rez already paid (and with another couple) for Heavenly at the end of January. So we’ll be praying to the snow gods to smile on Tahoe in January as well. Otherwise, that may turn out to be an expensive trip if we end up spending more time in the casinos than on the slopes!

 

[Tony Crocker]

However, I do have a bit more faith in the magic of snowmaking – on groomers, at least

No, not with the combination of uncooperative weather and the damage the crowds are doing this week. It IS better to throw a little extra $ at the situation to improve it. In March 1986 we had a prepaid package trip to Jackson Hole. After one day we concluded that it was virtually unskiable at 65 degrees with SE exposure despite the 110 inch base. So we rented a car, drove to SLC and got 4 quality days of skiing there, drove back to JH to fly home. I was able to dump the lift tickets for ~80% of face value (I told the buyer that JH was too tough for us) but of course I paid extra for the car rental and a cheap motel in SLC. We also had to find day care in SLC because we had Adam along at 18 months old.

The towns on either side of Wolf Creek are not terribly expensive, the drive is no farther than Jackson-SLC, you will pay no more than we did to improve your situation, and you don't have the complication of a toddler to care for. I would ski a day or two at Beaver Creek, then get on the road. Enough info has already been provided to convince me that Vail, Breck and Keystone are not worth skiing. That Snowmass report was frightening; I had assumed that it was in better shape than the I-70 resorts.

We also have rez already paid (and with another couple) for Heavenly at the end of January.

Colorado looks like powder paradise compared to Tahoe. Today Heavenly reports 194 acres out of 4,800 open. Furthermore Heavenly and Northstar are leeward of the Sierra Crest so when it does start snowing they will get only 2/3 to 3/4 of what the places on the Crest get. With zero snow predicted through January 7 (no one can predict reliably beyond that) you need to be planning NOW how to get out of as much of that trip as possible. You're looking at what, 2-3 weeks of unknown weather, needing at least 6 feet of snow to get everything up and running. I have 36 Januaries of mid-mountain Heavenly snowfall. Multiply by 3/4 since we know it won't snow that first week. Median snowfall for the rest of the month is 30 inches, probability of 6 feet or more is 17%. Do not throw good money after bad.

If you actually fly to Reno your bailout options are much farther away. Bachelor and Utah are the most likely options. If the Sierra gets somewhat above average snow over those 2-3 weeks, Kirkwood and Mammoth might be OK but Heavenly will still be mostly a larger version of the manmade WROD's you ski around D.C.

Nobody likes to give refunds, but you should at least try to negotiate a "rain check" on the Heavenly trip. Let them keep your money but apply it to a trip later in the season or better yet, next year. And do it NOW, when you're still a month out, not at the last minute.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Jason just called from Bachelor -- he said that by Weds night, five inches of rain had fallen and that the upper mountain, which got snow, was not going to open while they were there. Luckily, they're skiing on several inches of kinda thick fresh snow today.

How does this nationwide horror show compare with previous Xmas disasters?

 

[Tony Crocker]

How does this nationwide horror show compare with previous Xmas disasters?

We've been lucky in the past 2 decades. The most comparable severe drought early seasons were 1976-77, 1980-81 and 1986-87.

California:
At Tahoe this year is second worst to 1976-77. Mammoth has a bit more snow than Tahoe now but had less in the other 3 seasons. All 3 of the above seasons were worse than now at Mammoth and another 3 (1989-90, 1990-91 and 1999-2000) were similar to now. 5th percentile Christmas at Tahoe and 10th percentile at Mammoth

Utah:
1976-77 and 1980-81 were much worse than this year and 1986-87 was about the same. 10th percentile Christmas.

I-70 Colorado:
1976-77 was worse than this year and 1980-81 about the same. 5th percentile Christmas.

Southwest (San Juans and NM):
As we know, these areas are doing OK (Durango and Telluride) or even above average (Wolf Creek and NM) this season. However these areas have had very severe droughts (worse than I-70 this year) through New Year's in 1976-77, 1980-81, 1989-90 and 1999-2000.

U.S. Northern Rockies:
In Jackson 1976-77, 1979-80, 1986-87 and 2009-10 were worse than this year and 1997-98 was about the same. It's snowing there now, so maybe a 15th percentile Christmas. For those with weather paranoia about Christmas, Targhee is remarkable. 1976-77 with 78 inches and 1986-87 with 76 inches are the only seasons with less than 110 inches snowfall before New Years. 130 inches so far this season, not sure if a bit inflated by including October.

For the areas farther north I have no November data for those earlier seasons. But current percents of normal snowfall are slightly worse than at Jackson, so 15th percentile seems right for everywhere but Schweitzer, which was on the November storm track between the Pacific Northwest and Canada.

Pacific Northwest:
At Bachelor 1976-77 had only 10 inches before New Year's; second worst season was 49 inches in 1989-90. 5 other seasons were below the ~80 inches this year, but 1980-81 and 1986-87 had more. Washington State and Whistler had no snow the first 3 weeks of December but had a good November, ~3 feet this week and all areas are now above average. At Mt. Rainier (season average 633 inches) the 41 inches in 1976-77 was the only season with less than 97 inches (1989-90) before New Year's. Whistler has no early season data for 1976-77 but has continuous data since 1980-81. 77 inches in 1989-90 and 82 inches in 2004-05 are the only pre-New Year's totals under 100 inches.

The Rest of Western Canada:
The lowest pre-New Year's total at Mt. Fidelity in Glacier National Park (season average 483) is 113 inches! Lift serviced snow reliability is less impressive. At Fernie the worst starts in 25 years of data were 54 inches in 2000-01 and 59 inches in 1985-86 with 6 other seasons under 100 inches. At Sunshine the Nov+Dec average is only 90 inches, so interesting that the worst seasons are 47 inches in 2000-01 and 49 inches in 1985-86. This year the areas near the U.S. border are slightly below average while those farther north are above average.

Conclusions:
1976-77 was in a class by itself as a Western skiing disaster. All regions except interior western Canada were severely impacted. Furthermore the season stayed bad in California and Colorado all year and in the other regions until mid-February.

1980-81 was worse than this year because the Southwest was bad too and Colorado and Utah were somewhat worse then, offsetting the Northern Rockies being better.

1986-87 is a very close analogy to this season in terms of which regions are bad and to what degree. I-70 Colorado was somewhat better in 1986-87 than now but the Southwest was below average then vs. average+ now.

The Pacific Northwest and especially western Canada tend to be independent of these widespread western droughts. These regions can have bad years too, but they are not that likely to be the same seasons that California and/or the U.S. Rockies are in trouble. The northern regions also tend to get a higher proportion of their snow early season vs California, Utah and Colorado.

Overall 2011-12 is tied for 3rd worst Christmas in the West of the past 45 years. Eastern snowfall is completely independent of western long term. I'd guess the eastern Christmas is 25th percentile judging that 2001-02 and 2006-07 were at least as bad. Put the East and West together and it is indeed a horror show.

 

[berkshireskier]

Yea, as Tony's stats indicate, this has to be one of the worst starts to the ski season across the US. And he did not even include the Northeast where it has been a terrible snow (and cold weather) December. I guess it proves the advice that planning a ski trip for the Christmas holidays months in advance can be a risky proposition. Oh well, at least I have time to finish raking my lawn.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I guess it proves the advice that planning a ski trip for the Christmas holidays months in advance can be a risky proposition.

Where have we heard that before? :-k ](*,) :-k ](*,) :-k ](*,)

 

[schubwa]

Jason just called from Bachelor -- he said that by Weds night, five inches of rain had fallen and that the upper mountain, which got snow, was not going to open while they were there. Luckily, they're skiing on several inches of kinda thick fresh snow today.

I did not go yesterday (obviously) or today due to a severe cold. But things have vastly improved today with 9" of new now falling at 20 degrees. I hope Jason gets to go tomorrow, but he better get up early. Today was the day to sleep in and get in the late session as the rain overnight turned to snow and got lighter and lighter as the day went on...

39" base and 45" mid-mountain tomorrow will be the true zoo.

http://www.mtbachelor.com/winter/mountain/snow_report

 

[jasoncapecod]

Today was great!! The snow today sure helped erase Wed's deluge from my memory. It was my last day , at least it ended strong.

 

[egieszl]

More problematic conditions for Colorado (specifically Aspen/Snowmass).

Yesterday, temps reached 58 degrees in Aspen and were in the mid 50s in Snowmass. Now all lifts are closed today (December 31) at Snowmass due to extremely high winds. This is the first time I've ever experienced a complete wind hold in 26 years. We've had extremely high winds (the strongest I've ever witnessed) at elevation 8,800 feet since about 11:00 pm last night.

I can only imagine what the upper mountain will look like after this.

As of 12 noon limited lifts are open on Snowmass (Village Express, Sam's Knob, Alpine Springs, Sky Cab, Coney Glade). I won't be skiing unless Two Creeks opens.

 

[Admin]

It got warm here at Alta yesterday too, and froze solid overnight with just a skiff of new snow accompanying the front. We had a stiff breeze this morning - nothing strong enough to close lifts but things were sufficiently unpleasant to send me back home after a just few runs.

Sent from my Android device using Tapatalk

 

[EMSC]

In all of the ironies, I've heard Vail is closed today.. but normally windy Eldora (while windy) is open. It's been super crazy windy in the whole front range for 3-4 days in a row now. Including huge winds overnight and much of the morning (as in, can hardly stand up in them winds). Nutty stuff.

 

[gores95]

More problematic conditions for Colorado (specifically Aspen/Snowmass).

Yesterday, temps reached 58 degrees in Aspen and were in the mid 50s in Snowmass. Now all lifts are closed today (December 31) at Snowmass due to extremely high winds. This is the first time I've ever experienced a complete wind hold in 26 years. We've had extremely high winds (the strongest I've ever witnessed) at elevation 8,800 feet since about 11:00 pm last night.

I can only imagine what the upper mountain will look like after this.

As of 12 noon limited lifts are open on Snowmass (Village Express, Sam's Knob, Alpine Springs, Sky Cab, Coney Glade). I won't be skiing unless Two Creeks opens.

Holy crap this is bleak. We will be in Aspen for four days of skiing on 1/15 and now I am nervous though the latest pattern change is slated for a week before that. I have seen a few of these pattern changes come and go with little change.

I tried to get a free change to our plane tickets to Vancouver/Whistler instead with no luck. Maybe I should just bite the bullet and pay for the change. I used miles.

I think I will just wait a week or so and see what happens.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Maybe I should just bite the bullet and pay for the change. I used miles.

This is a no-brainer IMHO. Do it now before the airline changes its mind and doesn't allow FF tickets to Vancouver at the last minute. Colorado snow almost always accumulates gradually rather than coming in massive Sierra/Wasatch dumps. No snow is forecast for the next week in Colorado. The chance of enough snow to turn that situation around in one week (Jan 7-15) is probably less than 5%.

With that next week widespread dry forecast this season is now solidly in 3rd place behind 1976-77 and 1980-81 for worst start in the 45 years I have enough info to determine. My Christmas week at Alta in 1986-87 was definitely better for skiing than this one. The weather was cold so surfaces did not deteriorate much, and it did snow 18 inches on Jan. 1.

 

[gores95]

Tony how is Whistler looking the next couple of weeks weather wise?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Whistler was in full operation before the 40 inches last week. Another 2 feet is forecast this week. Even if there were no snow forecast you have 8,000 acres of skiing on an average 69 inch base vs. the horror show egieszl reported last week at Snowmass. Do not hesitate, move that trip now while you can.