powderfreak
New member
SUMMARY:
Moderate to heavy rain will develop and continue into tomorrow morning
before changing to heavy snow throughout the morning and early afternoon
hours. Due to slight deviations in my forecasted storm track, significant
snowfall accumulations will be slightly further to the north and east than
previously expected. Maximum accumulations will be in the general area of
a Jay Peak to Sugarloaf line...with the most snowfall in the Presidential
Range of NH and adjacent mountains of Maine and Quebec. Snow will
continue into tomorrow night in extreme northern VT, NH, ME, and Quebec.
Steady snow will taper off elsewhere tomorrow night before snow showers
develop across the Adirondacks and western slopes of the Green Mountains
on Wednesday in an upslope flow. Additional accumulations are possible in
upslope favored regions on Wednesday.
FORECAST by region/ski area:
Extreme northern VT (Jay Peak), northern NH (Cannon-Wildcat), and Sunday
River-Sugarloaf region of Maine...Rain changes to snow by noon tomorrow
and heavy snow continues through the day into tomorrow night. Steady snow
tapers to snow showers early on Wednesday with total accumulations of one
to two feet above 1,000ft (some isolated higher amounts are possible
around Mount Washington/Wildcat region and upper reaches of Sugarloaf).
Temperatures start out in the upper 30's and fall into the 20's...with
teens possible in the highest peaks of the Presidentials.
Central to Northern VT (Killington/MRG/SB/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs), Northern
Adirondacks (Whiteface)...rain changes to snow tomorrow morning and is
heavy at times tomorrow afternoon. Snow tapers off tomorrow evening
except perhaps in the region between I89 and Jay. Snow redevelops in the
form of snow showers on Wednesday. Total Accumulations of 6-12" are
expected above 1,000ft...with up to 6" below 1,000ft. Temperatures start
out in the 35-42F range tonight and fall to 25-32F by tomorrow
afternoon...and 20-25F after midnight tomorrow.
Southern Adirondacks (Gore), southern VT (Okemo/Mt Snow/Stratton/Bromley),
and extreme northern Berkshires (Mt Graylock/Jiminy Peak)...rain changes
to snow tomorrow morning in the Adirondacks and between 10am-1pm in Greens
and Berkshires. Snow continues through the afternoon before tapering off
in the early evening. Total Accumulations of 3-7" are expected by
tomorrow night above 1,500ft...with 1-4" below that elevation. Occasional
lake effect snow showers are possible through Wednesday with minor
additional accumulations of a coating to 2". Temperatures start in the
low 40's and fall into the to upper 20's tomorrow afternoon.
Champlain Valley (Middlebury, Burlington, Plattsburgh) and CT/White River
Valley (Lebanon)...Moderate to heavy rain changes to snow during after
12pm tomorrow. Wet snow falls throughout most of the afternoon but with
minimal accumulation. Snow continues into tomorrow night before tapering
to light snow/snow showers after midnight. Total accumulations of 2-6",
mainly on grassy surfaces, decks, and trees.
DISCUSSION:
Moderate rainfall is now increasing across the northeast from the south
and will begin to rotate in off the Atlantic from the SE. A strong H85
low level jet out of the SSE will pump copious Atlantic moisture into
upstate NY and New England with a perfect flow for orographically enhanced
precipitation rates in the Sugarloaf/Sunday River region and White
Mountains. The higher elevations of some of these areas coupled with
incredible mid-level frontogenesis and deep moisture could produce
snowfall rates in excess of 2"/hr there. It is my gut feeling that either
Sugarloaf or Wildcat sees a very impressive April snowfall. This system
should also help the spring Mount Washington ski experience as well as
raise the avi danger with several feet of snow possible and 2-4" of liquid
water.
A slightly further NE track will limit wrap around precipitation deep into
NY state and into central VT. I feel significant wrap around stays just
north of a Mount Mansfield to Plattsburgh line although an upslope
component and Champlain Valley convergence will help out west slope
communities squeeze out 6-12" of wet snowfall above 1,000ft.
Timing of this system is not perfect, as the time of heaviest snowfall
looks to occur tomorrow afternoon and accumulations will need to overcome
a strong April sun. It will not be a problem in the higher elevations but
my feeling is that the lowest valleys could see several hours of mdt to
hvy snowfall amount to a slushy coating or inch that melts as soon as
precipitation rates let up. The real accumulations in the lower
elevations may not happen till near sunset but it'll be interesting to see
just how much precipitation is left after 7pm tomorrow south and west of I-
89. Above 2,000ft, temps will be cold enough to mitigate sun strength.
I'll be doing updates during the storm tomorrow and hope everyone can
relay change over times and any accumulations/observations to the list or
me backchannel via email.
-Scott
Moderate to heavy rain will develop and continue into tomorrow morning
before changing to heavy snow throughout the morning and early afternoon
hours. Due to slight deviations in my forecasted storm track, significant
snowfall accumulations will be slightly further to the north and east than
previously expected. Maximum accumulations will be in the general area of
a Jay Peak to Sugarloaf line...with the most snowfall in the Presidential
Range of NH and adjacent mountains of Maine and Quebec. Snow will
continue into tomorrow night in extreme northern VT, NH, ME, and Quebec.
Steady snow will taper off elsewhere tomorrow night before snow showers
develop across the Adirondacks and western slopes of the Green Mountains
on Wednesday in an upslope flow. Additional accumulations are possible in
upslope favored regions on Wednesday.
FORECAST by region/ski area:
Extreme northern VT (Jay Peak), northern NH (Cannon-Wildcat), and Sunday
River-Sugarloaf region of Maine...Rain changes to snow by noon tomorrow
and heavy snow continues through the day into tomorrow night. Steady snow
tapers to snow showers early on Wednesday with total accumulations of one
to two feet above 1,000ft (some isolated higher amounts are possible
around Mount Washington/Wildcat region and upper reaches of Sugarloaf).
Temperatures start out in the upper 30's and fall into the 20's...with
teens possible in the highest peaks of the Presidentials.
Central to Northern VT (Killington/MRG/SB/Bolton/Stowe/Smuggs), Northern
Adirondacks (Whiteface)...rain changes to snow tomorrow morning and is
heavy at times tomorrow afternoon. Snow tapers off tomorrow evening
except perhaps in the region between I89 and Jay. Snow redevelops in the
form of snow showers on Wednesday. Total Accumulations of 6-12" are
expected above 1,000ft...with up to 6" below 1,000ft. Temperatures start
out in the 35-42F range tonight and fall to 25-32F by tomorrow
afternoon...and 20-25F after midnight tomorrow.
Southern Adirondacks (Gore), southern VT (Okemo/Mt Snow/Stratton/Bromley),
and extreme northern Berkshires (Mt Graylock/Jiminy Peak)...rain changes
to snow tomorrow morning in the Adirondacks and between 10am-1pm in Greens
and Berkshires. Snow continues through the afternoon before tapering off
in the early evening. Total Accumulations of 3-7" are expected by
tomorrow night above 1,500ft...with 1-4" below that elevation. Occasional
lake effect snow showers are possible through Wednesday with minor
additional accumulations of a coating to 2". Temperatures start in the
low 40's and fall into the to upper 20's tomorrow afternoon.
Champlain Valley (Middlebury, Burlington, Plattsburgh) and CT/White River
Valley (Lebanon)...Moderate to heavy rain changes to snow during after
12pm tomorrow. Wet snow falls throughout most of the afternoon but with
minimal accumulation. Snow continues into tomorrow night before tapering
to light snow/snow showers after midnight. Total accumulations of 2-6",
mainly on grassy surfaces, decks, and trees.
DISCUSSION:
Moderate rainfall is now increasing across the northeast from the south
and will begin to rotate in off the Atlantic from the SE. A strong H85
low level jet out of the SSE will pump copious Atlantic moisture into
upstate NY and New England with a perfect flow for orographically enhanced
precipitation rates in the Sugarloaf/Sunday River region and White
Mountains. The higher elevations of some of these areas coupled with
incredible mid-level frontogenesis and deep moisture could produce
snowfall rates in excess of 2"/hr there. It is my gut feeling that either
Sugarloaf or Wildcat sees a very impressive April snowfall. This system
should also help the spring Mount Washington ski experience as well as
raise the avi danger with several feet of snow possible and 2-4" of liquid
water.
A slightly further NE track will limit wrap around precipitation deep into
NY state and into central VT. I feel significant wrap around stays just
north of a Mount Mansfield to Plattsburgh line although an upslope
component and Champlain Valley convergence will help out west slope
communities squeeze out 6-12" of wet snowfall above 1,000ft.
Timing of this system is not perfect, as the time of heaviest snowfall
looks to occur tomorrow afternoon and accumulations will need to overcome
a strong April sun. It will not be a problem in the higher elevations but
my feeling is that the lowest valleys could see several hours of mdt to
hvy snowfall amount to a slushy coating or inch that melts as soon as
precipitation rates let up. The real accumulations in the lower
elevations may not happen till near sunset but it'll be interesting to see
just how much precipitation is left after 7pm tomorrow south and west of I-
89. Above 2,000ft, temps will be cold enough to mitigate sun strength.
I'll be doing updates during the storm tomorrow and hope everyone can
relay change over times and any accumulations/observations to the list or
me backchannel via email.
-Scott
