James post some pics when you get there.
Western Weather 2017-18 and Later
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James post some pics when you get there.
My goggle aversion is eroding a bit with age. I need them at maybe 15F or below now vs. 10F or so historically. But on the warm end there is no way I can wear them at 50F like some people do. For bad light, heavy snow etc. I wear goggles only a little less often than most people, probably 3/4 of the time at Whistler. Interesting this comes up now; I just bought new goggles at SkiDazzle tonight, along with a new ski bag to replace the one wrapped with a few feet of duct tape.
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Targhee's perfect record lives on: Press Release Tue 12/12/2023 3:05 PM
This status is most impressive in a December like this one where only handful of other western areas are even half open.
Meanwhile the Sierra may be headed for an ugly holiday season similar to 2011-12 and 2013-14. Tahoe season snowfall is similar to 2013 so far and a little better than 2011. Mammoth snowfall is barely half what it was in those two years and I'm only posting because current conditions are confirmed by Mammoth Snowman and by Lonnie's friend Sam who lives in Mammoth during the ski season. Both say the groomers have considerable floater rocks. At this time in 2011 I was at Mammoth for 2 days because I needed new boots, and while skiing was strictly on manmade, coverage was excellent and surfaces at least 75% packed powder. It was cold during my trip with 24/7 snowmaking while recently the snowmaking has only been possible at night.
We were going to ski Mammoth this Friday because it was only a modest extra drive from a planned astronomy group weekend camp in the Panamint Valley. However the friends in whose RV we were staying had to cancel, so it makes no sense for us to drive that for for just the skiing. We will await more terrain opening at Big Bear.
We were going to ski Mammoth this Friday because it was only a modest extra drive from a planned astronomy group weekend camp in the Panamint Valley. However the friends in whose RV we were staying had to cancel, so it makes no sense for us to drive that for for just the skiing. We will await more terrain opening at Big Bear.
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The new Eagle lift at Solitude will open Dec. 20. Overall Solitude is up to 53% open now.
Jim Steenburgh at Wasatch Weather Weenies posted a great summation of the western season so far on Wednesday, including a more comprehensive version of the usual SWE map.
Notice in particular his final paragraph recommendation:
Notice in particular his final paragraph recommendation:
ChrisC
Well-known member
You know it cannot be that great if Solitude only bothers to groom eight runs. I guess they do not want to chew up any base before the holidays. Or not spit pebbles/rocks onto the trails?
Those three-months-ahead forecast maps are next to useless. California is the worst western region so far this season (see map two posts above), which is saying something because almost everywhere is below average.
^^
Agree. Here in south east Queensland we were warned of a very dry and hot summer due to El Niño. So far it’s been typical hot and muggy but we’ve had wetter than usual November and December.
Last years La Niña delivered above average snow to California even though it’s supposed to produce less than average….
Agree. Here in south east Queensland we were warned of a very dry and hot summer due to El Niño. So far it’s been typical hot and muggy but we’ve had wetter than usual November and December.
Last years La Niña delivered above average snow to California even though it’s supposed to produce less than average….
La Nina is drier than average in SoCal and Arizona. Overall it is not drier than average in the Sierra. Not only was last year's record season in the Sierra La Nina, but 2010-11 (third highest of the past 50 years) was also La Nina.
I would guess that El Nino/La Nina impacts are more consistent in Queensland than most places as it's close to the equatorial Pacific.
There is also a prevailing opinion that El Nino effects are more likely in January-March than in November-December.
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jamesdeluxe
Administrator
I won't argue that in most cases, yes... CPC outlooks aren often poor, however I am looking at other long term data and most show the same general pattern through at least February. That's generally why I posted this map because it does indeed mirror lots of other model data I'm seeing (and it's easy to read). I'm hoping they're wrong as much as anyone (not in the green at least).
All of these sources use the same few models. And no model is even slightly credible more than two weeks out. Maybe these forecasts are being tweaked because we know there is an El Nino. But the El Nino is predictive only in a broad seasonal way, not for any specific dates. Even seasonally El Nino is not predictive for a broad swath of ski country, notably most of Utah and Colorado.
Here's what happened during the last hyped El Nino in 2015-16.
Fair enough. And you're correct in that these outlooks (mainly the CPC) put a strong bias on ENSO... often times, too much. They even mention that in their narratives on these outlook maps.
I don't know how much the actual modeling takes ENSO/SST's into account. It'd be interesting to know, and I'll look into it. Will freely admit, my forte is short term wx forecasting, and not longer term climate trends.
I don't know how much the actual modeling takes ENSO/SST's into account. It'd be interesting to know, and I'll look into it. Will freely admit, my forte is short term wx forecasting, and not longer term climate trends.
I would hazard a guess not explicitly. It looks at where the jet stream, moisture plumes, low and high pressure spots are right now, then runs a series of projections forward from the known starting point.
Mammoth Snowman update after recent storm, which was 9 inches at Main Lodge. Those 9 inches had 2.36 inches water content. Maybe close to 2 feet up top since most of the chair 23 runs opened, though their upper entries are very sketchy per Snowman.
EMSC
Well-known member
That's insanely dense. Not sure I even knew that level of slop was possible to fall as 'snow'.