Historic Mt. Baldy Snow Forecast

jasoncapecod said:
Anyone that takes those numbers verbatim is a fool..That said they are fun to look at..
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Fwiw, Brundage Mtn (and probably many other ski areas that got sucked into their marketing) shows Opensnow's daily snowfall for up to 5 days out, and numbers are still usually quite overblown for the areas I'm arguing. (I failed to mention that I also looked at that when I mentioned the 1-5 and 6-10 day snow totals, so my bad). As a forecaster/meteorologist myself, I realize forecasting is largely about trends, especially more than a few days out.

Here's the deal. I'm not a fan of Opensnow. I've chatted with Joel a few times. Nice guy, smart... and a good forecaster. Nothing against him personally... just think their model for forecasting is broken in some places, and I get irritated seeing so many ski areas market them like Gods and never reality-check their forecasts. I prefer accuracy over marketing.
 
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snowave said:
I'm not a fan of Opensnow. I've chatted with Joel a few times. Nice guy, smart... and a good forecaster. Nothing against him personally... just think their model for forecasting is broken in some places, and I get irritated seeing so many ski areas market them like Gods and never reality-check their forecasts. I prefer accuracy over marketing.
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I'm not a subscriber, but you can still see a fair bit of weather data and 1-5 and 6-10day snowfall totals (just not by day), etc... I have an anecdote in the opposite direction. For my home Eldora if OpenSnow 48hr+ predictions were accurate then Eldora would only have something like 70 inches of snowfall YTD vs the 150"+ actual snowfall. eg at least for one spot on the map, all that modelling has heavily under-predicted snowfall this season, all season long. Tons of forecasts for 2-3 inches that have been 6-8", several 3-4" actual snowfalls against predictions of 0-1, etc...

Just thought I'd throw that into the mix. It's been interesting not subscribing as I only get to see more summarized data, which I think actually has helped me to better realize how off all the modelling is. When you have infinite detail, (I at least) digging in and getting lost in the detail vs the big picture of being off low and high all the time is a thing IMO. I also realize that in some ways I prefer the OpenSnow models to be off. Let the hordes chase the wrong resorts on the wrong days, etc... Of course that's only partly true (a big storm is a big storm), but I also think that is not an exaggeration on some days.
 
What do you use for snow forecasts? I used to use Open Snow a few years ago and was impressed by their look ahead forecasts, which helped me successfully time trips to SLC. Sounds like they may have lost the formula?
 
Lots of websites use these automated models, notably https://www.snow-forecast.com/ for quite some time. I noticed before too long that site's numbers consistently overstate.

So again, the primary value of OpenSnow is the narrative forecasts. I'm very confident that Joel, Evan and Bryan know what they are doing. So having that value for Tahoe, Utah and Colorado alone makes the subscription worthwhile from my perspective.

Joel is aware of the problems with the automated projections, but says it's hard to fix via programming, which is necessary as it's applied to hundreds of ski areas.
 
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Bryan, the Tahoe Open Snow always does a “keep me honest report” after the storm showing variance between his prediction an day or two out vs. how much snow fell. Does anyone else?

I don’t like that they no longer allow comments. When I asked, they said it was being abused.

If anyone wants to join my $40/yr for 4 people OpenSnow group, I have an opening. PM me your email address. First year free. I would appreciate a PayPal donation or a beer for second year.
 
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Standing by for accumulation updates. This is the forecast at 3 am PT:

Overnight
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 29. Wind chill values as low as 15. Very windy, with a south southeast wind around 40 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 33 to 39 inches possible.

Saturday
Snow before 10am, then snow showers after 10am. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 34. Wind chill values as low as 15. Breezy, with a south southwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 16 to 22 inches possible.

Saturday Night
Snow likely, mainly before 10pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22. Wind chill values as low as 10. South wind around 10 mph becoming west northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
 
Someone else should get this info first. I will leave my hotel in Fernie before most websites are updated and be at Castle without cell service until 2PM, when I have to leave for Calgary airport.
 
Mt. "Badly" has not updated their website as of 7:35 AM, but Mt. High is reporting over 5 feet of new snow in the past 24 hours:
Mt High

I wonder how Baldy will be by Tuesday? Liftopia had 2/28/2023 lift tickets for $64 as of this morning:
Liftopia
 
Tony Crocker said:
Lots of websites use these automated models, notably https://www.snow-forecast.com/ for quite some time. I noticed before too long that site's numbers consistently overstate.

So again, the primary value of OpenSnow is the narrative forecasts. I'm very confident that Joel, Evan and Bryan know what they are doing. So having that value for Tahoe, Utah and Colorado alone makes the subscription worthwhile from my peerspective.

Joel is aware of the problems with the automated projections, but says it's hard to fix via programming, which is necessary as it's applied to hundreds of ski areas.
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Interesting, Snow-forecast. com has always been on the low end for my area. Goes to show that all models these people use are different, and not a good fit for mass forecasting.

I will say that Opensnow did seem to have some better forecasters in certain areas. I know when I lived in Pagosa, Joel/Sam did great narratives on the I-70 resorts. I suspect the high use areas (I-70, Tahoe, Utah, etc) get some better people that get into the nitty gritty.

Back to the original thread... been fun watching the mt high cams!
 
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I’m on Castle’s lodge WiFi because upper Tamarack lift serving 3/4 of terrain is on wind hold.

Big Bear 12 inches overnight but 57 storm total since Wednesday when it snowed much more out there than in the San Gabriel’s.

Snow Valley 5 feet storm total, it was 3 feet yesterday I think.

Mt. High says 65 inches last 24 hours, 81 in 72 hours.

I’d say Mike’s forecast by incidence at ski areas was pretty good.

All roads to all ski areas are closed today. Mt. Waterman says it will try to open tomorrow. I doubt that but perhaps odds for next weekend are better than I thought.

And of course crickets from Baldy. Baldy wants everyone to buy in advance but I’m not doing that until they actually open.
 
On their websites, Big Bear, Mountain High, and Waterman are reporting 5-7 feet. Nothing still from Baldy.
Any other news?
 
They say they’re opening today, seems unlikely based on past experience.

I’m considering Mt High tomorrow, roads been closed so they haven’t opened yet. I don’t have chains but do have 4wd so if it’s r3 I won’t go.
 
Mt High will likely open tomorrow, as they are just about done clearing the highway today according to my friend in Wrightwood. A lot less higher elevations to clear than the other ski areas.

I'd be shocked if Waterman opened before next weekend, as that section of Hwy 2 has always been a low priority. And even then, MW will likely may find another excuse not to open.

Never know what's going to happen at Baldy. The communication with that place has always been piss poor.

Big Bear is open today, but all roads coming up are still closed, so apparently a locals day, or people that stayed up over the weekend. They are letting people down the backside through Lucern Valley, I think as of this afternoon.
 
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Garry heard third hand that Baldy opened about 2PM, so I bought an online ticket for tomorrow. Baldy's website warns that drivers may not be allowed past the village without a season pass or an advance ticket.

It was delusional for Waterman to suggest they might open today. Website now says:
The roads are closed and we are closed. We will keep you updated on when we are open.
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I'm standing by my earlier guess that even next weekend is a longshot given low priority of its road.
 
Mt. High and Snow Valley will not open Monday due to roads still being closed. I’m leaving for Baldy soon.
 
Tony Crocker said:
Mt. High and Snow Valley will not open Monday due to roads still being closed. I’m leaving for Baldy soon.
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Yes, was about to leave early this morning and saw the road was still closed. I also saw the instagram video at baldy, didn’t seem particularly deep, nice base though. With all the crap Baldy usually deals with I called it a day and went to work.

Mammoth next weekend.
 
baldyskier said:
What do you use for snow forecasts?
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NWS point forecasts and CAIC forecasts mostly for my days in Colo at least (which is a large majority). Plus the big storms are over-communicated by every outlet in todays hype world. These either also use the same as, or are actually some of OpenSnows data sources anyway.
 
All SoCal ski areas are closed today. Roads to Mt. High, Snow Valley and Big Bear remain closed. 7 day snow totals are now 106 inches at Big Bear and 115 at Mt. High.

The storms will wrap up today. Nothing is forecast for the next 9 days beyond. This weekend is going to be insane in the local mountains.
 
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