Historic Mt. Baldy Snow Forecast

Tony Crocker said:
This weekend is going to be insane in the local mountains.
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I think that's probably true for all of California. Most of Tahoe was shut yesterday too (though heavenly had ~7 lower mtn lifts running) for example and, near as I can tell, most of Tahoe is 'hoping' to get perhaps 25-50% open today at most (Kirkwood is only listing 3 lifts they hope to open today at all, etc...).
 
I'm retired, so I'm not skiing weekends in this likely frenzy scenario unless Waterman opens. Odds seem remote given the other road situations I discuss below. I'll get Baldy tomorrow and at least one more day early next week before we leave for Iron Blosam.

Mountain High's management must be apoplectic that Hwy 2 between there and the 138 has now been closed for 6 days. That is the easiest ski area access road in SoCal. I wonder if there was an avalanche or rockslide. Snowave, when you lived in Wrightwood was that road ever closed for too much snow (1998 or 2001 maybe?) and if so for how many days?

Snow Summit and Bear Mt. are closed today. But they have been open the past 5 days for country club skiing for locals as all 3 roads into Big Bear from the outside have been closed for the same 6 days as Mt. High.
 
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Tony Crocker said:
I'm retired, so I'm not skiing weekends in this likely frenzy scenario unless Waterman opens. Odds seem remote given the other road situations I discuss below. I'll get Baldy tomorrow and at least one more day early next week before we leave for Iron Blosam.

Mountain High's management must be apoplectic that Hwy 2 between there and the 138 has now been closed for 6 days. That is the easiest ski area access road in SoCal. I wonder if there was an avalanche or rockslide. Snowave, when you lived in Wrightwood was that road ever closed for too much snow (1998 or 2001 maybe?) and if so for how many days?

Snow Summit and Bear Mt. are closed today. But they have been open the past 5 days for country club skiing for locals as all 3 roads into Big Bear from the outside have been closed for the same 6 days as Mt. High.
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The biggest storm I remember during my time in Wrightwood was 08/09 I think. We got about 4 ft over a few days. The road was closed maybe a day or two at the most, I think. The low snow levels and mass amounts of area that got insane snow this past week are likely the problem. My friend who lives in Wrightwood said he was just told that Hwy 2 will remain closed to non-residents through the weekend. Many side streets have yet to be cleared in town, and it sounds like a total mess. I assume Big Bear is in the same boat.

btw, did you see this picture of Newcombs Ranch taken on 2/27? Supposedly, another ~20" has fallen since this was taken, too.
I think photo is by one of the Giao boys that lives/works at Chilao.

p.s. This is the first time i realized that you can post a photo here without having to use a photo storage site. Very cool, thanks for that.

4CDCD424-5C10-4231-A6F8-F23E5783BDB3.jpeg
 
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snowave said:
p.s. This is the first time i realized that you can post a photo here without having to use a photo storage site.
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Now that we have a platform more user friendly to picture uploads than old FTO, please avoid using photo storage sites where links can be broken and pictures lost.

Last night I neglected to check the Baldy website:
CLOSED Thursday 3/2 due to a significant out of bounds avalanche that covered a section of the ‘Bowling Alley’ section of Baldy Rd just before the the entrance to the resort at approximately 5:30am this morning. Stay tuned for more information on a potential Friday Opening.
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I got up at 5:30, was dressed and ready to get out the door by 6:30 when I did check.
The Crew mobilized quickly yesterday by procuring a dozer to push out the Avalanche Debris. We expect to be conducting AC work by mid-day to address any areas that have not slid yet, if any exist. Stay tuned regarding tomorrow.
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Today had very high potential upside. Tomorrow could still be good but it's supposed to be sunny today, which will degrade chair 4, much of chair 1 and Eric's.

I'm not worried about using today's reservation sometime in the next week, but I don't see anything on Baldy's website about how to do that.

Mt. High and Snow Valley roads remain closed today. Big Bear has not yet updated, but an event scheduled for Bear Mt. Saturday has been cancelled. I'm beginning to think these areas are going to lose another weekend, though the storms are now done so you would think main roads could be plowed with 2 full days of clear weather before the weekend.
 
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Tony Crocker said:
Now that we have a platform more user friendly to picture uploads than old FTO, please avoid using photo storage sites where links can be broken and pictures lost.

Last night I neglected to check the Baldy website:

I got up at 5:30, was dressed and ready to get out the door by 6:30 when I did check.

Today had very high potential upside. Tomorrow could still be good but it's supposed to be sunny today, which will degrade chair 4, much of chair 1 and Eric's.

I'm not worried about using today's reservation sometime in the next week, but I don't see anything on Baldy's website about how to do that.

Mt. High and Snow Valley roads remain closed today. Big Bear has not yet updated, but an event scheduled for Bear Mt. Saturday has been cancelled. I'm beginning to think these areas are going to lose another weekend, though the storms are now done so you would think main roads could be plowed with 2 full days of clear weather before the weekend.
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yep all the south facing areas will degrade. tis a shame. once the weekend comes the masses will arrive from this metropolis -- and you'll be lucky to get 5k vertical in on a single day w/ the lift lines............ once the roads eventually open it will be a complete and total s*show..........the likes of which nobody has seen in the history of SoCal.
 
snowave said:
My friend who lives in Wrightwood said he was just told that Hwy 2 will remain closed to non-residents through the weekend.
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Google Maps shows that road "Closed until March 7."

...avalanche that covered a section of the ‘Bowling Alley’ section of Baldy Rd just before the the entrance to the resort...
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I'm quite sure that slide came from Big Butch. I'd be very conservative about when to ski South Bowl 2 with that exit from it.
yep all the south facing areas will degrade. tis a shame.
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By past history, after big storms Baldy rarely gets chair 4 open before the sun degrades it. However, today I probably would have bootpacked the lower third of it to ski Eric's for my last run. The real loss for not opening today will be if the steep chair 1 runs get hit by afternoon sun.

The road situation overall is unprecedented since I have been skiing SoCal since 1976. Feb. 12-13, 2001 was very similar to last Friday/Saturday. Baldy getting open Sunday afternoon/Monday morning this time was consistent with how 2001 played out. But Baldy/Waterman got twice as much snow as the other places in 2001, so Wrightwood and Big Bear had less snow to clear. The extra 3 feet that fell Sunday to Wednesday after the peak event didn't happen in 2001 either. In addition to taking Wednesday off to ski Baldy powder Feb. 14, I skied Baldy Saturday Feb. 17 and Mt. High Sunday Feb. 18 in 2001.

The 1979 storm was colder, snowed to lower elevations (Palm Springs as mentioned before). A friend driving from Tahoe to Orange County was in chains from Lone Pine to San Bernardino. The storm was Jan. 29-Feb. 1 and I skied Baldy on Feb. 4 and Waterman(!) on Feb. 11. I would know if there were extended road closures in 2001 because I have been doing online snow reports since 1997. I dug up manual records saying the 1979 storm was 4-7 feet, which likely means the 7 feet was only at Baldy/Waterman. There is little doubt in my mind that last week was a record breaker for Mt. High and Big Bear, which reported 7-day totals of 111 and 106 inches.

These are the best of times for Big Bear locals, likely enjoying over a week of country club skiing. Wrightwood locals must be jealous and a bit peeved that Mt. High won't open even one mountain.
 
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Same roads to Mt. High, Snow Valley and Big Bear were still down Friday. I rode a chair at Baldy with someone who skied Big Bear last Wednesday, Friday and Saturday. The huge dump that hammered Baldy and Mt. High Friday did not get to Big Bear until Friday night. He spent the night, and went home after skiing Saturday. Starting Saturday he believes the Lucerne Valley road has been open to anyone wanting to leave Big Bear. You are not allowed to drive it into Big Bear without proof of residence.

Adam heard Baldy's road was closed for a while today too. I got up there at 7:35 so beat whatever the problem was. I saw nothing unusual on the way out at 4:30 either. In fact there were snowplayers just below Baldy's parking lot where the Wednesday avalanche was cleared and lots of them in the broad areas just above the village. I waited half an hour for tickets and while I was waiting for chair 1 the ticket line had doubled in length. I expected some huge lines on Thunder but the max was 20 minutes. So it's plausible that Baldy's road was down for a few hours midday.
 
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Tony Crocker said:
This weekend is going to be insane in the local mountains.
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Not that insane. Wrightwood and Snow Valley road access remains closed. Big Bear has not updated but it's hard to believe its locals only status via Lucerne Valley has changed.

Baldy warns skiers:
ROADS - They are clear, but COME EARLY. With the amount of snow it is still very difficult to clear spots for snow players to park. As a result managing the road is very difficult for OUR civil agencies and periodic ROAD CLOSURES should be expected.
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It's fairly clear this is what happened yesterday.

Oh, and this weekend is forecasted windy with highs in the 20's. So all the snow that went to spring conditions yesterday is going to be firm.

Video clip of the avalanche debris that buried the road below the parking lot Thursday morning:
It doesn't look like avy debris in that video so there must be a layer of new snow on top of it. Similarly I did not see obvious debris in the view up Big Butch driving out yesterday afternoon. However the plowed snowbanks are enormous.
 
socal said:
I am [going to Mammoth]. It'll be an adventure, very windy Saturday and lots more snow Sunday/Monday. Hopefully we make it home on Monday.
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Mammoth has a power outage Sunday morning. As of 10:45AM officially closed for today.
 
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Well aware! Yesterday we got a few hours before everything shut down. Glad we didn’t go to June as they closed the road at around 130.

395 is now closed too. Tomorrow should be good.
 
I sent an e-mail inquiry about 10AM Thursday saying I planned to come Friday. Later I saw on the website to respond to the reservation e-mail. I did that around 6PM and was sent a new reservation for Friday in about an hour. I think I overheard at the window Friday that Baldy was honoring Thursday reservations. I do not have much in the way of complaints about how Baldy has handled the past week. Could they have more than 3 window people processing reservations? Yes but that would just move the morning bottleneck to chair 1. More staff to dig out lifts would be nice, but the timing of that was consistent with the only other comparable big dump in 2001. February 1998 was better, but the 12 feet of snow then was spread out over the whole month, not concentrated in 6 days.

IMHO bitching about the current situation should be directed at Caltrans, not the ski areas. Especially at Wrightwood. Snowave?
 
1 hour = excellent service

BTW one morning in January I chatted with them as they tested Starlink -- the "dish" was set up 20 yards from the ticket window.
 
Hwy 2 into Wrightwood from 138 finally opened sometime today. Mt. High East and West will be 100% open daily starting tomorrow after being closed for 10 days. Do not expect powder after the weather of the past 4 days.

No change AFAIK for Snow Valley and Big Bear road closures.
 
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socal said:
Well aware! Yesterday we got a few hours before everything shut down. Glad we didn’t go to June as they closed the road at around 130.

395 is now closed too. Tomorrow should be good.
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Mammoth saying 10am at the earliest tomorrow. I’ve been patient but now frustrated.
 
Yes there will be a long spring, into May for Baldy and well into July at Mammoth. I'll miss most of April being in Australia but expect lots of skiing after that.
 
The Lucerne Valley road into Big Bear opened to the public today March 8. I’d expect a minimum 3 hour one way drive there from L.A. The front road 330 and 18 from Redlands routes remain closed along with Snow Valley.

The Angeles Crest has been closed just above La Canada through at least Monday. Today it is open to Mt. Wilson. There’s still about 15 miles beyond that to Mt. Waterman. Will it be open when we get back from our road trip April 5?
 
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