2010-11: The Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetimes?

[Admin]

Your clutching at straws here.

Het, Pot? Kettle here...


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[Patrick]

Your clutching at straws here.

Het, Pot? Kettle here...


Sent from my Android phone using Tapatalk

So nice of you to join us. :mrgreen:

I think it's going great Admin, if all goes as planned, this thread should reach 200 replies and 2,500 views by the end of next week.

Where is my check?

 

[Tony Crocker]

What you want is a daily freeze-thaw that promotes corn snow development.

Absolutely. This is most commonly produced by clear weather and low humidity, which make the nights colder and produce a rapid warmup during the day varying in timing by aspect. The more chronic cloudiness and humidity in the East (along with lower altitude) tend to hold temperatures within a narrower 24-hour range, yielding slop if that range stays well above freezing and the refrozen spring surface if close to freezing or below.

You don't want daytime temps to be extreme in either direction.

Hot is OK as long as it was cold overnight, just pushes the corn window earlier in the morning. That's why Mammoth opening hours get pushed back to 7:30AM in June/July.

Furthermore, snow in March & April is useless unless there is at least a foot of it and it comes down dry rather than as sludge.

Disagree here. The cement will bond to the subsurface and be thick enough for smooth "cream cheese" skiing on ~6 inches of new snow. Admin posted a few TR's of these conditions in spring this year at Alta and they looked delightful. If you get the light and dry over an old refrozen surface you might need as much as 2 feet of it to avoid unpleasant bottoming out, plus the wind is more likely to blow it away.

At any rate while the spring weather is relevant to a subjective rating of the Northeast ski season, the original topic here only made claims with respect to snowfall.

I can get anywhere in Vermont in 2 hours other'n Jay Peak and Smuggs.

I was under the impression that essentially all of Geoff's skiing was at Killington because of his house and season pass. It would be helpful to see some TR's when he skis other places. Presumably those would be among the times that conditions are much better elsewhere, thus worth the extra time and $.

Racers like it better when it icy.

Thank you for proving my point. The attraction of smaller hills is racing, and in the current era terrain parks. Cold temperatures for snowmaking and preservation, not snowfall, are the key to quality in both cases.

Snow isn't only for Alpine skiers, great cross-country skiing locally...when it snows.

I could add "for Alpine Skiing" to that title, but I seriously doubt that anyone was confused in that regard. Patrick is welcome to collect data for the leading cross country areas in North America, where the Midwest, Ontario etc. will more than get their due.

 

[Marc_C]

My suggestion for this thread is to take two of these:

 

[EMSC]

But those might give me nausea, ejaculation failure, insomnia, diarrhea, dry mouth, somnolence, dizziness, tremor and decreased libido.

So I'll just leave the sertraline hydrochloride pills with you for your enjoyment of this thread... Or wait, are those the possible adverse reactions to this thread?

What was the question again?

 

[Patrick]

But those might give me nausea, ejaculation failure, insomnia, diarrhea, dry mouth, somnolence, dizziness, tremor and decreased libido.

So I'll just leave the sertraline hydrochloride pills with you for your enjoyment of this thread... Or wait, are those the possible adverse reactions to this thread?

What was the question again?

9 x 6 = 42

 

[Admin]

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/0 ... ew-record/

 

[Patrick]

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/07/16/late-season-snow-pushes-u-s-skier-visits-to-new-record/

US.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Most regions experienced significant increases in snowfall, including the Pacific Southwest (up 43 percent), Northeast (up 35 percent), Rocky Mountains (up 33 percent), Midwest (up 27 percent), and Pacific Northwest (up 19 percent).

Up 35% from what?

 

[Admin]

http://www.firsttracksonline.com/2011/07/16/late-season-snow-pushes-u-s-skier-visits-to-new-record/

US.

Canada's just the 51st state. You act like Canada's actually it's own country or something...

Up 35% from what?

2009-10.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Up 35% from what?

2009-10.

Correct. That's why I looked at Kottke further to see what it said 2010-11 was relative to average. Kottke has the Northeast at 172 inches vs. 137 average. I find this ironic because that 126% figure is presumably inflated by some snowmaking dependent areas that I choose to ignore....precisely the type of area Patrick wants me to include!

My number of 102% for the Northeast reflects the reality at areas where snowfall is important better than Kottke does, as corroborated by the eastern posters here.

I invite Patrick to find Canadian skier visit data for 2010-11. When I was doing my skier visit weighting, I was looking for an average, and so used the 5 years I found on page 9 here: http://www.jti.gov.bc.ca/research/Resea ... rofile.pdf

FYI the Vancouver locals do significant business: I found 500K for Grouse, 300K+ for Cypress and Mt. Washington. These places all had huge years in 2010-11, so I suspect Canadian skier visit numbers for 2010-11 will be decent. I do believe that for U.S. and Canada combined, 2007-08 is #1 for skier visits. But not for snowfall. :stir:

 

[Patrick]

2007-08 is #1 for skier visits. But not for snowfall. :stir:

A quick comment as it's a busy weekend here.

1) I never said that everything should be weighted based on skier-visit. What I said was that there are huge parts of ski country (not only US) that was missing in Tony equation.
2) Some racers prefer the ice (that was a reply to rfarren), however I don't race all the time and the racer population is a tiny fraction of the skiing public...probably similar that write or read ski forums.
3) Agree that some areas are less dependent on natural snow, however snow in the city drives people to go skiing (at least for the Montreal, Ottawa and Quebec City skiing public). People don't see any snow in their backyard results in less skier as they can't imagine that they is snow at the hill. That wouldn't be the case in California. The comment was Best Ski Season...but Best Natural SnowYear...

Conclusion: I never said Tony's conclusion was wrong, but I only said that he was missing a huge amount of data to back it up and make the claim for all of North America. The fact that his NE only account for 12% (or whatever) of his global number isn't high enough in my opinion. I don't have issues when you comparing regions, but disagree on averaging out and having the East of the Rockies only count as 1 region versus 6 on the other side. I would love to provide extra numbers, Quebec numbers for Tony, and I did some groundwork a few years ago. But many non-calls was frustrating then snow started falling and I got busy.

 

[Geoff]

FYI the Vancouver locals do significant business: I found 500K for Grouse, 300K+ for Cypress and Mt. Washington. These places all had huge years in 2010-11, so I suspect Canadian skier visit numbers for 2010-11 will be decent.

I doubt any Vancouver locals ski Mount Washington.

 

[rfarren]

I don't have issues when you comparing regions, but disagree on averaging out and having the East of the Rockies only count as 1 region versus 6 on the other side.

I don't see that as big a deal when you take consideration that Tony is talking about places which are mainly snowfall dependent. When you think about the size of each region Tony uses it seems fair to treat the NE as such. Consider how long it takes to drive from Jackson to Kalispell. That drive is a small sliver of what Tony calls the Northern Rockies. Consider the fact that the mountainous region of Colorado is equal to Vt + Quebec is size. The way I see it, the skiable portion of the NE that is natural snow dependent is congruent with Tony's other regions.

 

[Patrick]

FYI the Vancouver locals do significant business: I found 500K for Grouse, 300K+ for Cypress and Mt. Washington. These places all had huge years in 2010-11, so I suspect Canadian skier visit numbers for 2010-11 will be decent.

I doubt any Vancouver locals ski Mount Washington.

I missed that. Mount Washington BC is definitely not local to Vancouver, however Marc C mentioned a few pages earlier that Stowe was a local for Bostonians. It would take considerable less time to get to Whistler than Mt Washington. No way you can make a day trip out of it.

I don't have issues when you comparing regions, but disagree on averaging out and having the East of the Rockies only count as 1 region versus 6 on the other side.

Consider the fact that the mountainous region of Colorado is equal to Vt + Quebec is size.

Not sure what your smoking, but I've driven more than that distance one way to go skiing without leaving Quebec to go skiing. Then you start multiplying the amount of ski areas within those boundaries. Different climate zones, etc... where only one area is taken in the equation of the entire NE region which there only represents 1/6 or 1/7 of Tony overall North American number. Nothing in Ontario or East of Quebec + MW. He seems to have the West cover, but definitely missing some significant data points in the East particularly in ECanada to make a NA claim.

 

[rfarren]

Nothing in Ontario

There are mountains there?

 

[Tony Crocker]

The way I see it, the skiable portion of the NE that is natural snow dependent is congruent with Tony's other regions.

That was precisely my mindset when I was setting up the database in the early 1990's. No criticism whatsoever from Leslie Anthony/Powder magazine on the region split. Leslie Anthony did think I needed more areas from the Northeast (and western Canada) and the article was delayed into the next season due to the time it took to collect that data.

Mt. Washington on Vancouver Island is probably a tough daytrip from Vancouver city, but my point is that it is part of the Pacific Northwest climate zone of B.C. that had huge snow in 2010-11 and also significant skier visit numbers.

definitely missing some significant data points in the East particularly in ECanada to make a NA claim.

There is no evidence whatsoever that including missing areas would change the overall conclusion about North America for 2010-11.
1) The missing Quebec areas where snowfall is relevant (mainly Townships, but Saguenay would qualify also) were close to average and would thus not move that 102% number for the Northeast much.
2) If you count the snowmaking dependent subregions in Eastern Canada that were bad (Laurentians, Ottawa), for consistency you must count the similar Northeast subregions (southern New England, Catskills) that we know from Kottke were high. Given Kottke's 126% number for US Northeast the resulting total Northeast percentage will likely be higher than the 102% that I'm using.
3) And finally, using 102% for the Northeast with a 1/3 weighting (that's 20 million skier visits including Laurentians, Ottawa, southern New England, all of NY State) 2010-11 is still the #1 season at 124% with second place being 1981-82 at 116%.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

for consistency you must count the similar Northeast subregions (southern New England, Catskills) that we know from Kottke were high.

Can you repost the link to the Kottke report? I was under the impression that the Catskills were average in snowfall last season.

 

[rfarren]

for consistency you must count the similar Northeast subregions (southern New England, Catskills) that we know from Kottke were high.

Can you repost the link to the Kottke report? I was under the impression that the Catskills were average in snowfall last season.

I think they were slightly above average, but I don't think it was statistically significant, whereas the Daks were significantly above average in snowfall. I think WF got over 240 inches. It's funny that WF was so far above average whereas Northern Vt wasn't.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I never posted a link to Kottke. I received a document from someone in NASJA. The participating Northeast areas in 2010-11:
NORTHEAST
MA Jiminy Peak Mtn. Resort
NH Attitash
NY Four Seasons Ski Center
VT Burke Mountain Ski Area
MA Wachusett Mountain Ski Area
NH Bretton Woods Ski Area
NY Gore Mountain
VT Jay Peak Ski Resort
MA Camden Snow Bowl
NH Cranmore Mountain Resort
NY Greek Peak Mountain Resort
VT Killington Resort
ME Lost Valley Ski Area
NH Gunstock Mountain Resort
NY Holiday Valley Resort
VT Mount Snow Resort
ME Mt. Abram Resort
NH Loon Mountain Recreation Corp.
NY HoliMont Ski Area
VT Okemo Mountain Resort
ME Saddleback Maine
NH Mount Sunapee Resort
NY Hunter Mountain
VT Pico Mountain
ME Shawnee Peak Ski Area
NH Pats Peak
NY Thunder Ridge Ski Area
VT Stowe Mountain
VT Smugglers’ Notch Resort
ME Sugarloaf
NH Ragged Mountain Resort
NY Tuxedo Ridge Ski Center
ME Sunday River Ski Resort
NH Waterville Valley Resort
NY Whiteface
VT Stratton
VT Sugarbush Resort
NH Abenaki Ski Area
NH Wildcat Mountain Ski Area
NY Windham Mountain
NH Arrowhead Recreation Area
NY Bristol Mountain Winter Resort

Total Kottke areas reporting (2010-11 snowfall inches vs. 20yr average):
42 Northeast (172 vs. 137)
18 Southeast/mid-Atlantic (69 vs. 65)
29 Midwest (81 vs. 75)
49 Rockies (341 vs. 277)
19 Pacific Southwest (486 vs. 299)
20 Pacific Northwest (431 vs. 337)

The average overall snowfall figure for 2010-11 quoted by Kottke is 248 inches. I cannot replicate this number based upon what's in the report. My guess is that the 177 areas above all reported skier visits but not all of them reported snowfall.

1991-92 - 2010-11 average based on maximum (and varying) resort sample each season

Weighting the 6 regions equally yields 263 inches. Weighting by the above area count yields 256 inches. Weighting by skier visits yields 299 inches. At any rate the 248 inches was quoted as:

national average snowfall was the highest recorded in 20 years of Kottke research.