2010-11: The Greatest Natural Snow Year of Our Lifetimes?

[rfarren]

As far as I know, Quebec is still part of North America and you just have about 80 ski areas that a majority had a lousy year in snow accumulation department.

Which is accessible to a tiny percentage of the population in North America. I would say that the most easily accessible areas in North American by and large had great years. I'm not trying to dismiss Quebec as a region, but except for locals it's fairly out of the way.

Maybe when you look at most showcase destination North America destination resort it might be fair.

I would say showcase regions, not necessarily destination resorts.

I think Tony's point was: given that in any year some regions are going to get the shaft, this year had great snow in most regions.

I think we can get too focused on our local regions sometimes, or rather our personal experiences. We can hit a ski area at the right time in the wrong year and our perception could be quite skewed. IMHO Patrick's perception is not unlike when you go to 1 baseball game and you see a career .200 hitter hit for the cycle, you walk out thinking what a great player, when in fact he is weak. Overall this year has been an immensely strong ski year, if not the best in the sense that for an incredible amount of regions it was a strong season. I just don't see what's particularly controversial about this.

 

[Patrick]

Which is accessible to a tiny percentage of the population in North America. I would say that the most easily accessible areas in North American by and large had great years. I'm not trying to dismiss Quebec as a region, but except for locals it's fairly out of the way.

And Montana or Wyoming aren't?

A tiny proportion of the population of North America, but a much larger proportion of the skiing population. Locals skiing would includes Ontario as a whole and some destinations from the Eastern US. The attraction of Quebec as a ski destination to Eastern Canada is similar to Vermont's attraction in Eastern US.

It would like to see a comparison in general skier-visits in Quebec versus other places. Tony, Admin, can someone give out those numbers?

 

[Geoff]

For the exercise in this thread (102% for Northeast) all snowfall from 11/1-4/30 is counted, washed out or not. The vrmthist.htm exercise is what's looking at the weekends, and is probably the more useful exercise for the vast majority like rfarren who are weekend warriors based in the metro areas.

Tony,

I look at your data and laugh since it shows so little understanding of New England skiing.

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

2009 was the best spring skiing in my memory. We had good sunny corn snow days and overnight freezes for just about all of March and all of April. You grade that BBBC CCCD

2011 had almost no days when it was worth blowing off work to grab a powder day. At least at Killington, we didn't have many of those orographic lift events where a couple of feet of fluff showed up. When it did snow, it was cement or nor'easter snow where the wind got at it. There were a few weeks where the trees were nice but it was nothing like a good winter when they're good from mid-December into April.

 

[riverc0il]

Geoff really nailed the summary. 2nd on everything he wrote.

This shows one of the limitations of Tony's methods. Late season in the east, quantity of terrain doesn't matter at all. In April, it is all about having one great bump run you can lap with great bump lines. Quantity of terrain or trails is the worst way to judge a good spring in New England. This spring in particular was rough even though it went long (Jay until May) with lots of available terrain... too much rain and not enough good corn weather.

Except that many of the western resorts this year it wasn't just a matter of consistent snow. It was a banner year, with frequent large storms and persistent cold deep into the season.

Cool. No dispute here. Other than the fact that this is about all of North America instead of being posted in the Western NA forum.

 

[Admin]

Which is accessible to a tiny percentage of the population in North America. I would say that the most easily accessible areas in North American by and large had great years. I'm not trying to dismiss Quebec as a region, but except for locals it's fairly out of the way.

And Montana or Wyoming aren't?

That wasn't Rob's point, nor mine. No one in their right mind drives to Wyoming or Montana for a day, or even a weekend unless they're within an hour or two's drive away, and as you acknowledge that population is miniscule. For the majority of large western resorts the bulk of their business is derived from visitors who plan their travel weeks if not months in advance. Therefore no one cares if snowfall is "consistent" in terms of whether it falls midweek or on a weekend, for these folks aren't visiting for just a Saturday or a weekend. The indiputable bottom line is that 2010-11 was a ridiculously good snow year in all US regions except for New Mexico and the Southeast.

Note that I said that the principle above holds true for the "majority" of large western resorts. There are of course exceptions, including the Front Range of Colorado as well as Utah. In Utah's case visits break down roughly 50/50 between locals and destination visitors according to officials at Ski Utah.

And that's the only context in which I'm using the term "consistent," as it was defined by someone else earlier in this thread.

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc. Relatively speaking eastern Canada's population is chump change compared to that of the northeastern US - you of all people know that's true. Quebec's skiers are nearly all day skiers or weekend warriors because few others are traveling to Quebec to ski.

Tony, Admin, can someone give out those numbers?

I don't have 'em.


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[jamesdeluxe]

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc.

Admin and I are the only people I'm aware of who have driven and flown multiple times for destination trips to Quebec. And part of his reason for going there was, I assume, to visit in-laws?

I have no such excuse; I just like skiing there. 8-[

 

[Geoff]

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc. Relatively speaking eastern Canada's population is chump change compared to that of the northeastern US - you of all people know that's true. Quebec's skiers are nearly all day skiers or weekend warriors because few others are traveling to Quebec to ski.

Tremblant does manage to pull in some New England and metro-NY ski week business. Before the US dollar collapsed, it was a very cost-effective option for a group with some non-skiers or occasional skiers in it. Ditto Quebec City.

 

[Admin]

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc. Relatively speaking eastern Canada's population is chump change compared to that of the northeastern US - you of all people know that's true. Quebec's skiers are nearly all day skiers or weekend warriors because few others are traveling to Quebec to ski.

Tremblant does manage to pull in some New England and metro-NY ski week business. Before the US dollar collapsed, it was a very cost-effective option for a group with some non-skiers or occasional skiers in it. Ditto Quebec City.

I'm confident that relatively speaking the numbers are inconsequential.

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[Admin]

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc.

Admin and I are the only people I'm aware of who have driven and flown multiple times for destination trips to Quebec. And part of his reason for going there was, I assume, to visit in-laws?

I have no such excuse; I just like skiing there. 8-[

As did I. Yeah, in later years skiing was an excuse to get out of the in-laws' house for the day but I skied up there long before I got involved with Mrs. Admin. I rather enjoyed the whole cross-cultural experience - it felt like I really traveled somewhere.


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[Bobby Danger]

this year certainly rates in the top three overall in my life , 93 days today , some years there's more days but the quality just isn't there like it's been this year . but one has to remember we would all like to live in a place that gets 780" of snow a winter CONSISTENTLY year after year and that doesn't even happen here not that amount !!! snowbird and alta are the only places that i've ever skied that i would buy a season pass a year in advance without debate . only because being consistent is what makes a business like this one succeed .

 

[Tony Crocker]

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

I don't think JSpin and the northern Vermont contingent that were skiing the fresh snow in March/early April 2011 would share your view. My Vermont table assumes a local who can choose the right place on short notice, not someone locked into the same hill all season due to lodging/season pass etc. And I think it's a fairly established fact that Killington conditions are generally not as good as at the places north of I-89.

With regard to Riverc0il's comments, I assume he would think the 102% is a fair representation of the New England season. I never said it was a great New England season; I said it was a great overall season, with the East at a 1/8 weight in that determination. Actually the East being the worst region at 102% is one of the reasons 2010-11 was so good. 1981-82 is the only other season with NO region below average.

It would like to see a comparison in general skier-visits in Quebec versus other places. Tony, Admin, can someone give out those numbers?

I don't think skier visit numbers should drive a determination of season quality in terms of snowfall. If you do, you should count all those Midwest molehills like Kottke does. The Northeast falls in between: it should count for something but not as much as a skier visit weighting. Weighting shoild be more based upon scale/importance of ski areas. I will get around to using EMSC's vert+acreage stats to add up the totals for various regions. But not this weekend, I'm busy skiing.

 

[Geoff]

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

I don't think JSpin and the northern Vermont contingent that were skiing the fresh snow in March/early April 2011 would share your view.

You really don't get it. From mid-March onwards, we spring ski in New England. 6" of fresh snow on top of fossilized corn snow is a horrible condition.

 

[riverc0il]

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

I don't think JSpin and the northern Vermont contingent that were skiing the fresh snow in March/early April 2011 would share your view.

I can't speak for JSpin, but I 100% agree with Geoff (and that doesn't happen hardly ever :lol: :wink: ). 2010-2011 was below average for me but I think it was probably above average for Joe Regular Skier since it was consistent and generally not icy hardly ever.

 

[Marc_C]

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

I don't think JSpin and the northern Vermont contingent that were skiing the fresh snow in March/early April 2011 would share your view.

You really don't get it. From mid-March onwards, we spring ski in New England. 6" of fresh snow on top of fossilized corn snow is a horrible condition.

There's only one solution to this annual mud-slinging: Tony needs to spend an entire season living and skiing in New England. Let's put him in Brattleboro, Rutland or Burlington. We can really make it interesting and stipulate instead either Boston, Manchester NH, or Portland ME.

 

[rfarren]

In 2011, you grade March / April as: AABA ABCC. The skiing for most of March and April sucked. It was cold and there were very few days of sunny spring conditions.

I don't think JSpin and the northern Vermont contingent that were skiing the fresh snow in March/early April 2011 would share your view.

You really don't get it. From mid-March onwards, we spring ski in New England. 6" of fresh snow on top of fossilized corn snow is a horrible condition.
There's only one solution to this annual mud-slinging: Tony needs to spend an entire season living and skiing in New England. Let's put him in Brattleboro, Rutland or Burlington. We can really make it interesting and stipulate instead either Boston, Manchester NH, or Portland ME.

That's just cruel...

 

[Tony Crocker]

You really don't get it. From mid-March onwards, we spring ski in New England

No, you don't get it, you're skiing ONE area. Read page 12 of JSpin's Vermont log this season and you'll see clear documentation of the 3 A weekends in March, with the last one corroborated by Anthony.

Again, no quarrel with Riverc0il. the vrmthist.htm table is not a measure of powder. The 102% says average not great, and there can still be variation from a powder perspective if the snow comes in dribs and drabs that really don't result in enough for powder. Nonetheless JSpin is a demonstrated powder snob, and his comments from March are good enough for me.

I had already done some work on EMSC's spreadsheet of 300 areas' acreage and vertical, so it was easy to group by my regional definitions:

California (includes AZ, NV): 18% of acreage, 13% of acreage+vertical
PNW (includes Alaska, Whistler, Vancouver locals): 7% of acreage, 12% of acreage+vertical
Interior western Canada: 17% of acreage, 14% of acreage+vertical
US Northern Rockies: 14% of acreage, 12% of acreage+vertical
Utah: 13% of acreage, 9% of acreage+vertical
Northern & Central Colorado: 11% of acreage, 8% of acreage+vertical
S & W Colorado (includes NM): 9% of acreage, 10% of acreage+vertical
Northeast (defined as NY + New England + Quebec): 11% of acreage, 21% of acreage+vertical

In view of the above I'm quite comfortable with my regional weights.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Tony needs to spend an entire season living and skiing in New England. Let's put him in Brattleboro, Rutland or Burlington.

Being retired and headquartered in Burlington wouldn't be the purgatory that is implied by the post. I'm pretty sure he's said numerous times that if you have the freedom to pick and choose your days and ski areas (as he now does), Burlington is as good a location for snow quality as many locations out west -- that obviously doesn't include the obvious marquee regions. Since the northeast doesn't have lift-served, above-treeline terrain, he'd need to get comfortable with skiing rabbit warrens for challenge.

 

[Marc_C]

Tony needs to spend an entire season living and skiing in New England. Let's put him in Brattleboro, Rutland or Burlington.

Being retired and headquartered in Burlington wouldn't be the purgatory that is implied by the post.

How the hell did you get implied purgatory? I just think maybe it's time for Tony to have a base of real experience in NE instead of reams of spreadsheet data with conclusions supported by supposition. I suggested those towns/cities precisely to give the reality of most skiers. I agree that if I ever had to live in the purgatory of NE in retirement, Burlington wouldn't be a bad choice at all.

 

[Patrick]

Which is accessible to a tiny percentage of the population in North America. I would say that the most easily accessible areas in North American by and large had great years. I'm not trying to dismiss Quebec as a region, but except for locals it's fairly out of the way.

And Montana or Wyoming aren't?

That wasn't Rob's point, nor mine. No one in their right mind drives to Wyoming or Montana for a day, or even a weekend unless they're within an hour or two's drive away, and as you acknowledge that population is miniscule. For the majority of large western resorts the bulk of their business is derived from visitors who plan their travel weeks if not months in advance.

Yes, no one drive to Wyoming or Montana. But what are the numbers? St-Sauveur probably has double the skier visits of Alta, Jackson or Snowbird. And I'm not even talking about Big Sky numbers. Bromont and Tremblant, probably as high or similar. Here are the numbers by provinces in 2002-03 as posted by Max a long time ago. Before stating that the 2010-2011 was a great season snow wise, you have to look at the continent as a whole and where these people skis. For example, you can't say that NA which includes Canada had the greatest snow year in our lifetime when maybe 40% (based on the 2003 numbers below) of ski-day visit were in a region when it was no even close to average. And that region is pretty large and the drought extended beyond it's borders. I just don't like generalization, that's all. O

As seen on a press release in the news section, here are the Canadian skier days by province for the last season:

Québec: 6,900,000
British Columbia: 5,500,000
Ontario: 3,200,000
Alberta: 2,400,000
Nova Scotia + PEI + Newfoundland & L + New Brunswick: 570,000
Manitoba & Saskatchewan: 220,000

viewtopic.php?f=2&t=5155

No matter what you think of your own backyard, no one - or damned near to no one - flies across the continent to ski in Quebec, Crocker notwithstanding. Nor do many drive to Quebec from NYC, Boston, Baltimore, Washington, etc. Relatively speaking eastern Canada's population is chump change compared to that of the northeastern US - you of all people know that's true. Quebec's skiers are nearly all day skiers or weekend warriors because few others are traveling to Quebec to ski.

Tremblant does manage to pull in some New England and metro-NY ski week business. Before the US dollar collapsed, it was a very cost-effective option for a group with some non-skiers or occasional skiers in it. Ditto Quebec City.

I'm confident that relatively speaking the numbers are inconsequential.

Admin, you know what I think about my backyard. Never been a big fan, however I'm not the average skier. If anything, I would be bias against the region. I don't have the number off the top of my head, but Geoff is entirely correct about Tremblant attraction outside the local scene. What is the percentage of the skiing public in Boston, NYC, Philadelphia or Washington DC versus Montreal and the entire province. I would think that there would be a greater proportion of skiers in Montreal. Tremblant also draws into Ontario as far as Toronto. There are direct airline flights from Toronto two airports to Tremblant now (I know, why? But that is besides the point). You would be surprise what percentage of the skiing public at Tremblant is from outside Quebec. It's not recent, It's been the case as long as I could remember. That type of argument is the same the NHL had and still having for keeping team in the Southern US. Market isn't the same and 1 person in Atlanta or Phoenix doesn't necessary have the same weight (not actual weight, cuz it might be the opposite :stir: ) living in Montreal, Quebec City or Winnipeg. Same goes for skiing. How many skiing days would people living in Dallas get on average versus people in Boston or Montreal?

It would like to see a comparison in general skier-visits in Quebec versus other places. Tony, Admin, can someone give out those numbers?

I don't think skier visit numbers should drive a determination of season quality in terms of snowfall. If you do, you should count all those Midwest molehills like Kottke does.

I disagree. Midwest, Northeast and Quebec should count. That is where people skis. The general skiing public skis where and how often? That will determine if they had a good year. For example, If only 1/10 go out West in the season in an incredible snow season versus a terrible season in the East, how will that season be viewed by the overall skier? You could say that Alaska, Shames or the BC Interior is having a record season, but that doesn't mend nothing if no one is taking advantage of it. You need to enter a skier-visit factor in your formula.

I had already done some work on EMSC's spreadsheet of 300 areas' acreage and vertical, so it was easy to group by my regional definitions:

California (includes AZ, NV): 18% of acreage, 13% of acreage+vertical
PNW (includes Alaska, Whistler, Vancouver locals): 7% of acreage, 12% of acreage+vertical
Interior western Canada: 17% of acreage, 14% of acreage+vertical
US Northern Rockies: 14% of acreage, 12% of acreage+vertical
Utah: 13% of acreage, 9% of acreage+vertical
Northern & Central Colorado: 11% of acreage, 8% of acreage+vertical
S & W Colorado (includes NM): 9% of acreage, 10% of acreage+vertical
Northeast (defined as NY + New England + Quebec): 11% of acreage, 21% of acreage+vertical

In view of the above I'm quite comfortable with my regional weights.

If you are talking as a continent as a whole, you shouldn't weight regions as such. What will be the weight of a 10,000 acres Manitoba mountain. :stir: What matters, is where people actually ski. Weighting between areas and the where they ski.

I just think maybe it's time for Tony to have a base of real experience in NE instead of reams of spreadsheet data with conclusions supported by supposition. I suggested those towns/cities precisely to give the reality of most skiers.

OMG, Hell is freezing over. I actually agree with Marc C.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

How the hell did you get implied purgatory? I just think maybe it's time for Tony to have a base of real experience in NE instead of reams of spreadsheet data with conclusions supported by supposition.

Sorry for the misinterpretation.

I've said before that I appreciate Tony taking the time include the northeast in his snow studies. In fact, I think that it legitimizes northeastern skiing to see that our region gets the same treatment -- reams of spreadsheet data with conclusions supported by supposition -- as Utah.
:wink: