Alta, UT 1/1/2013

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Day 26: Another cold one.

It was terrific to get together with everyone at Skidog's house last night for an "East Coast New Year's" celebration, with the highlights from the buffet table including Skidog's pulled pork, Marc_C's asian turkey meatballs and AmyZ's funeral potatoes. Killer food and killer company, and I was still in bed well before midnight. Throughout the night rdwore couldn't stop showing off his feature in Snowbird's "Picture of the Day" on Dec. 28:

S_GH_35B_174_0625.jpg


Not bad for an old retired fart from Upstate NY, although I'm questioning the newly self-described "Western Powder Ski Hero's" assertion that "The new celebrity it has brought me will further increase the desire of the women of Snowbird and Alta to be with me."

:roll:

It was bitterly cold this morning, at least for here, in the middle single digits. Although the thermometer recorded a couple of more degrees than it did yesterday morning there was a bit of a breeze that made it feel far colder, especially on the EBT.

One trip down the EBT, in fact, made me swear it off for the rest of the day. It was enough for Skidog to put his tail between his legs and head home. The rest of us headed in for our morning coffee earlier than normal once again.

It was there, though, that our posse acquired a new member today. Amy just moved here from Steamboat Springs and bought a season pass. She's just beginning to learn the mountain's stashes, and she showed up at Baldy Brews expecting the usual "Ski With The Girls" Tuesday gathering to make friends and learn new lines, except that wasn't taking place today due to the holiday. Angel, the midweek barista in Baldy Brews, pointed to us and told Amy, "These are the guys you should be skiing with."

Sure, what's one more? Tag along.

We picked up naromando, who's here on a family ski vacation (ironically also from Steamboat Springs), and his brother, despite their hotel at Canyons Resort losing his brother's ski boots last night while they were on the dryer. That just made them late until they were found. Along with Bobby Danger, AmyZ and Telejon we had a full-on posse that the new Amy likened to a "bunch of dirt bikers on skis." It was one of the larger groups that we've skied with in a while.

Finding soft snow today was hit or miss, punctuated by sectors of stiff cut-up snow. Armpit skied well, as did Greeley Hill/North Greeley and Eagle's Nest. Susie's Trees and lower Gunsight, on the other hand, were both surprisingly stiff. It was hard to apply the usual logic to find the soft snow as the usual rules during a northwesterly breeze didn't seem to apply. The High T itself is little worse for wear from the holiday crowds (which, BTW, were decidedly absent today -- the place was deserted), but Piss Pass is positively ugly. The entire green mat is now snow-free, and it's actually far better to sidestep up above the pass and strike out toward Thirds before doubling back toward Stonecrusher, High Boy and the Nest, although even that option is anything but clean.

After lunch Bobby, AmyZ and Telejon headed to Snowbird. I was supposed to go over there to meet up with The Kid, who was skiing with mrgskier and his family in town from Vermont, but I knew that I didn't have enough gas left in the tank to travel to Snowbird, ski some runs with them and still get back to my car parked at Alta. Furthermore, The Kid was already spent and sitting in the Rendezvous as it was his first day on skis this season and I didn't feel like braving the EBT again, so after a trip down the Nest I took one last run with naromando and Amy, this time up Supreme back out Catherine's to ACL and the Summer Road, which was peppered with snowshoers. ACL was far more tracked up than it was on Sunday, but it still held pockets of untracked, the only such snow we'd find today.

No pics, although if I had taken any they would have looked virtually identical to those I posted on Sunday. As posted elsewhere, following our protracted storm cycle we're now in for a long dry spell under a ridge of high pressure, which is nothing unusual for January in the Wasatch although it's coming a week or two earlier than normal. We're talking valley inversions and warm, sunny days on tap at altitude through at least the first 10 days of 2013. Ironically it's still flurrying on and off at my house beneath the undercast, while on the mountain today it was largely sunny above the lower cloud layer.

Happy New Year to all FTO Liftliners!
 
admin":2i2ml7ir said:
we're now in for a long dry spell under a ridge of high pressure, which is nothing unusual for January in the Wasatch

45 year Alta Stats:
Month Avg Std. Dev
Nov 77.59 43.39
Dec 96.78 48.94
Jan 95.15 40.43
Feb 88.80 26.83
Mar 93.46 34.47
Apr 78.03 37.62

From the above we would conclude that December is the most volatile winter month most likely to see "a long dry spell under a ridge of high pressure." February/March are the most consistent with January falling in between.

admin":2i2ml7ir said:
although it's coming a week or two earlier than normal.
As discussed in various threads from time to time, this type of assertion is just silly. The idea that one week's long term weather expectation in January differs materially from another week's is not supported by any meaningful evidence at any ski resort that I know about.
 
Once again you try to live your life by statistics. In the real world of everyday life in Utah, within which I've lived for 8 years now, the inversions have been most pronounced in January. Your statistics gathered in Southern California, which are a macro view of my micro world, don't need to try to tell me otherwise.
 
admin":2ora99aa said:
the inversions have been most pronounced in January.
I'm not arguing that point. Your original quote was:
admin":2ora99aa said:
a long dry spell under a ridge of high pressure, which is nothing unusual for January in the Wasatch although it's coming a week or two earlier than normal.
Casual readers might assume from the word "dry" (which usually refers to lack of precipitation rather than the specific condition of inversion) that Wasatch snowfall incidence is reduced in January relative to other winter months. And the final phrase about particular weeks in January has no basis in fact.

Midwinter cold temperatures are a key factor in the Salt Lake valley inversions, which is why they don't happen as often in February/March even if it's dry. 8 years is an inadequate sample size to draw much in the way of weather conclusions. But even during those 8 years Alta January snowfall has averaged 99.63 inches vs. the 45 year average of 95.15. There is absolutely ZERO evidence that January, or any week within January, has lesser snowfall probability in LCC than weeks in December, February or March.

The current dry spell, expected to last at least another week, applies to nearly the entire western US.
 
Tony Crocker":1n6ofgmq said:
But even during those 8 years Alta January snowfall has averaged 99.63 inches vs. the 45 year average of 95.15.
How were those 99.63 inches distributed over the month? In 11 years here, I recall many Januarys where there were storms the first few days and during the final week, but dry for the majority of the month. The most memorable being 2003, when we had 22 straight days of inversion with zero precipitation.
 
LCC sucks, big time! Yeah...

No basis for that comment; just wanted to give them something to unite against :lol:

But I am all for personal experience trumping stats -- otherwise Tony gonna win every argument, and that's no fun. Do my three previous years at Snowbasin count, btw?
 
Evren":1bnd2sz1 said:
LCC sucks, big time! Yeah...
Yep. It sucks all the snow away from the other resorts!

Evren":1bnd2sz1 said:
Do my three previous years at Snowbasin count, btw?
Sure. You were there, Tony wasn't, and thus infers conditions from an Excel spreadsheet.
 
Tony Crocker":9csx7h28 said:
Casual readers might assume from the word "dry" (which usually refers to lack of precipitation rather than the specific condition of inversion) that Wasatch snowfall incidence is reduced in January relative to other winter months.

No one said that. As Marc_C pointed out, your monthly snowfall stats provide no information about distribution. And...

Tony Crocker":9csx7h28 said:
And the final phrase about particular weeks in January has no basis in fact.

Yes, in fact it does. Inversions mean a lack of storms, or else we wouldn't have an inversion. They seem to most frequently arrive around mid-January each year. If you wish to disprove that you're going to have to provide average daily snowfall distributions that show otherwise.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note II using Tapatalk 2
 
Don't worry - my arrival on the 11th will end the inversion, though I don't have any statistics to prove it.
 
jtran10":1bvk75c8 said:
Don't worry - my arrival on the 11th will end the inversion, though I don't have any statistics to prove it.

If that works a beer is on me.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note II using Tapatalk 2
 
Admin":1r8c2aw0 said:
jtran10":1r8c2aw0 said:
Don't worry - my arrival on the 11th will end the inversion, though I don't have any statistics to prove it.

If that works a beer is on me.
Well, admit it, sometimes you are kinda clumsy with your drinks!
 
I wouldn't say sometimes, I'd say all the time.

Sent from my Samsung Galaxy Note II using Tapatalk 2
 
Admin":3gkz0gd8 said:
It was bitterly cold this morning, at least for here, in the middle single digits.
I think tomorrow morning will be a good time to check on that Peter Sinks thermometer before heading out:

http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=MPSINK&day=2&year=2013&month=1

-32F at 9am, so it could have been in the -40s earlier.

For those not in Utah, Peter Sinks is a localized anomaly, a sinkhole 2hrs North of SLC in the mountains. It has recorded the second lowest temp ever in the lower 48, just a year after they put up instruments in the 80s.
 
Alta has daily records for the same 8 years admin has been in Utah. Cumulative snowfall for an average date in January over the last 8 years is 25.7 inches. 8 of those dates total less than 20 inches, with 7 of those being under 10 inches: 1st, 3rd, 12th, 13th, 14th, 16th and 17th. The latter 5 dates have created the impression formed by the recent Utah locals. Not sure you want to generalize that into "low snow weeks" since the 11th totaled 46.5 inches and the 18th 41.5 inches. Needless to say I would be very surprised if those low snow dates hold up over a longer period of years.

For Mammoth I have 24 years of daily records 1983-2006. Cumulative snowfall for an average date in January over the last 8 years is 54.6 inches. January 12th is the lowest date at 14.7 inches, but January 14th through 19th are all above that 54.6 inch average. I know, the Sierra is not the Wasatch but Mammoth and Alta monthly snowfall are 54% correlated. During the past 8 years Alta's Jan. 12-17 snowfall was 32% of expected while Mammoth's was 34% of expected. So it is quite unlikely that the mid-January dip in Alta's snowfall of the past 8 years existed during the previous 20+ years.

Evren":1jt0mehq said:
I think tomorrow morning will be a good time to check on that Peter Sinks thermometer before heading out:
The Bridgeport/Bodie area has a similar relationship to the rest of the eastern Sierra with overnight lows ~10F lower than at similar elevation around Mammoth.
 
Tony Crocker":7giplu1s said:
The current dry spell, expected to last at least another week, applies to nearly the entire western US.

p168i.gif


Somwhat of a donut...although the PNW and Southern BC Interior/Rockies look promising
 
Interesting: there must be more than one station in that little sink as the wunderground and mesowest readings can be quite dissimilar. I see 20F difference at times.

While Peter Sinks is an extreme outlier, there are plenty of similar basins all around the Wasatch. On calm days, Mill D North at 7100' will be colder than Solitude or Brighton 1500-2000' higher. Driving to Sundance, Park City at 7000' is much warmer than Heber or Deer Creek Reservoir at 5000'. I always enjoy guessing and betting on what the temp will be just a couple of miles down the road.

Road to Alta offers no such basins, AFAIK [-(
 
Do you Utah folk trust personal memory over documented evidence in other areas? Just wondering. Sometimes these arguments remind me of the, to oversimplify it, "Moneyball" fights in baseball: the old-school/"see it with my eyes" types vs. the new-school/have video & spreadsheet proof.
 
SoCal Rider":2oh5d6uk said:
Do you Utah folk trust personal memory over documented evidence in other areas? Just wondering. Sometimes these arguments remind me of the, to oversimplify it, "Moneyball" fights in baseball: the old-school/"see it with my eyes" types vs. the new-school/have video & spreadsheet proof.
The big problem is that Tony keeps looking at averages, which smooths out the data. We're saying that in any given year, there is a high likelihood that a 2-3 week period around the middle of January is going to be dryer and more prone to inversion. That's something quite different than Tony's day-by-day average snowfall.

We asked specifically how the ~99" Tony cited was distributed over the entire month.
 
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