And so it begins.... 20-21 snowmaking season starts

[Tony Crocker]

The conventional wisdom on vaccine rollout to the general public is spring 2021. That would put much travel back to normal by mid to late summer in the Northern Hemisphere. For the southern ski season, one would hope that travel would be wide open between Oz and NZ at least if not to other countries. I would be surprised if the northern 2021-22 ski season is not close to normal.

 

[tseeb]

We have not done antibody tests, other than through vaccine study where we don't receive results. I've done some research on them and best option I found was Quest Diagnostics at about $120, but it seems like they require a Drs. referral.

I do not have an Ikon pass. I did not accept their offer of $200 off this year's pass with my option to rollover what I paid for unused pass towards unknown priced next year's pass. If there is skiing in April/May at Mammoth and place formerly known as Squaw and they sell 2021-22 pass that is also valid beginning April 2021 as they have previously, I would buy one.

As I said before and from local paper https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/12/04/ ... trictions/ which may be behind paywall "The new stay-at-home order will take effect starting at 10 p.m. Sunday in Santa Clara, San Francisco and Contra Costa counties. In Alameda County and Berkeley, it is scheduled to take effect just past midnight Monday morning and in Marin County at noon Tuesday. The new restrictions will remain in place until Jan. 4."

If it extends to 30 consecutive days in Vail's Core season and I don't use my pass, I qualify for and can apply for 100% refund in May.

My county has 11% vacant ICU beds. San Mateo county, which is immediately N of us has 14%.

 

[Tony Crocker]

If it extends to 30 consecutive days in Vail's Core season and I don't use my pass, I qualify for and can apply for 100% refund in May.

I missed that provision the first time. I can see the logic of not skiing the current marginal conditions while waiting to see if the stay-at-home order lasts the qualifying 30 days. Then in January it can become a decision whether to take the refund offer based upon Tahoe having a bad season like 2014, 2015 or 2018.

However, I don't believe for a minute that tseeb will blow off that Epic Local pass for an entire season. He used it 20 days in 2015 (when Heavenly never got as much as half open) and 24 days in 2018. He may humor his wife for the upcoming month of WROD conditions, but will he seriously not use his Tahoe residence once there is some quality skiing available?

 

[ShiftyRider]

towards unknown priced next year's pass

Indeed, it seems overlooked by many, that rolling over one's expenditure (not rolling over the pass itself) would be disastrous if the passes-priced-at-6-day-breakeven model goes back to the passes-priced-at-20-day-breakeven model, maybe.

[Maybe] 2021-22 pass that is also valid beginning April 2021 as they have previously, I would buy one

Then there's that. Spring/Summer skiing is my favorite and still I've never reaped the benefit that's fairly common in these parts = just buy the pass every other year.

 

[Tony Crocker]

...disastrous if the passes-priced-at-6-day-breakeven model goes back to the passes-priced-at-20-day-breakeven model, maybe.

I don't think that's likely. Vail in particular is wedded to the 6-day-breakeven model and so far Alterra is following suit. The ski areas get their revenue up front in a relatively predictable volume and before anyone knows whether the season will be good or bad.

Spring/Summer skiing is my favorite and still I've never reaped the benefit that's fairly common in these parts = just buy the pass every other year.

That's where we were headed with Liz. From 2013-14 through 2016-17 I had Mammoth MVP Premier and Liz had Mountain Collective. But in March 2017 we knew that spring/summer was going to be long so Liz got an base MVP and it was paid for vs. Mountain Collective half price by Memorial Day. The plan was for Liz to get base MVP's every other year to cover all Mammoth spring seasons.

But starting 2018-19 the Ikon became a no-brainer for both of us because it covers most of out Snowbird timeshare week along with being a Mammoth season pass.

 

[snowave]

Something else to consider is that I've heard reports that only roughly half the population plans to get the vaccine.. so it will be interesting to see if that... 1. pans out. 2. if so, there are still going to be a lot of people getting the virus, which could still have an affect on how "normal" things actually get back to.

 

[Tony Crocker]

Thanksgiving is here and it's not looking good for CO, UT, CA.

I have just updated a file for early season base depths and percents open going back to 1988 for Front Range Colorado. All of the open areas are below average for Thanksgiving. Steamboat and Winter Park are not open at all because they can't open enough terrain for social distancing. Copper is not open to the public either. These 3 areas still plan to open next week.

..... I would conclude that if you're not a local daytrip skier you should avoid CO, UT, CA until after the holidays. Wolf Creek is the conspicuous exception, but I'll bet it will be slammed Dec. 26-31.

I haven't compiled new snowfall totals, but it appears that normal western winter weather has resumed. Nonetheless the early December drought had the expected impact.

I updated the Front Range Colorado file and every area except Wolf Creek is below 25th percentile in open terrain for mid-December. Steamboat is at a record low 6%, and normally it's the most reliable area in the region early season and one of the best in the US.

The major Utah and California areas are in the same situation. Alta's open terrain (per its own website) has decreased since Dec. 1. So my advice about avoiding CO, UT, CA until after the holidays stands.

 

[Tony Crocker]

LCC has had 3-4 feet of snow since Dec. 10. Terrain remained limited for awhile no doubt to horrible snow stability with a dump like that after a 3-week dry spell. But today Alta is 76% open and Snowbird 41%. As for the rest of Utah, BCC is 30% open, Snowbasin 35%, Powder Mt. 12% and Park City 11%.

 

[sierra_cement]

LCC has had 3-4 feet of snow since Dec. 10. Terrain remained limited for awhile no doubt to horrible snow stability with a dump like that after a 3-week dry spell. But today Alta is 76% open and Snowbird 41%. As for the rest of Utah, BCC is 30% open, Snowbasin 35%, Powder Mt. 12% and Park City 11%.

It's staggering how different the numbers are for areas within 50 miles of each other. I feel fortunate that we had decided to skip a ski trip this Xmas.

 

[Tony Crocker]

The difference between LCC and Park City is huge, and particularly so in early and late season.

 

[tseeb]

Heavenly opened Mott Canyon yesterday. They also have East Bowl, The Face and Upper and Lower Gunbarrel open.

Expert skiers no longer have to download to CA base. Roundabout is not yet open so Intermediates are still downloading.

 

[sierra_cement]

Heavenly opened Mott Canyon yesterday. They also have East Bowl, The Face and Upper and Lower Gunbarrel open.

Expert skiers no longer have to download to CA base. Roundabout is not yet open so Intermediates are still downloading.

Heavenly's website shows 55 inches YTD. So is that enough snow to open the terrain you quoted? How much has been the contribution of snowmaking?

 

[Tony Crocker]

Interesting. When I did my Dec. 18 report, Heavenly's website showed 66 inches season-to-date. Looking at all the Sierra areas Dec. 10 vs. Dec. 18, I believe the 55 inches is correct.

East Bowl I'm almost positive has snowmaking top to bottom. Gunbarrel I'm not sure about. Tseeb is the one to answer these questions. When it's your home area that you have been skiing for decades, you know how how much snow is needed for adequate coverage of most terrain and he's the man as far as Heavenly is concerned.

I'm very surprised by Mott Canyon, which definitely does not have snowmaking. Its average opening date is mid to late January and with season to date snowfall being 50-70% of normal, I'm suspicious to say the least.

It is very likely that many areas are trying to maximize open lifts in order to spread people around in the winter of COVID. In Mammoth's case they have opened lifts out of Canyon Lodge with far less snow than usual in order to provide more parking access. But they can make snow on low intermediate runs to provide that access. Meanwhile the top of the mountain is still not open. Why not? First, it's served by a gondola which at the moment is being used for scenic rides. Next, the amount of manmade snow necessary to cover Cornice Bowl is probably being directed to some of these lower runs to make Canyon and possibly Eagle Lodges accessible for the holidays.

The above tells me that steep terrain in the Sierra is far from having natural coverage. I'm almost thinking that a modestly pitched route skier's left to the Mott chair is open to make the lift usable, but that the terrain we usually associate with Mott Canyon is not.

 

[EMSC]

Gunbarrel I'm not sure about.

It's there top to bottom on Gunbarrel; but they usually aren't blowing that trail quite yet in a normal year. Is there a big altitude discrepancy this year where the upper mtn is OK-ish (eg Mott open, but probably none of the actual steep stuff it's known for)? Or maybe they are desperately trying to get people down without another lift/tram ride and line at the end of the day this particular year?

Has much of anyone on these forums actually skied yet this season? I haven't had time to actually post in a long time, but have 3 days in thus far (2 snowboarding, 1 skiing). Biggest observations are: longer lift lines du to de-rating all the highspeed lifts, and big mtns are going to have it rough when it is actually cold outside (eg 15F or below). Hard to use your car as your lodge when it is at a remote parking lot at a big resort. Smaller or out of the way places are better options this year if you can consistently go and tolerate the usually more modest terrain sizing. No Idea how a place like Silver ID or Sunshine AB can deal with super cold days with crazy long access gondolas in the mix...

 

[Tony Crocker]

Is there a big altitude discrepancy this year where the upper mtn is OK-ish

Absolutely not. This is not an uncommon scenario at Mammoth as early season storms tend to have a higher rain/snow line so often the broader top runs open fairly early even though they are steep. But this year the few storms have had fairly low rain/snow line; there just hasn't been enough natural snow for steep terrain yet. It quite unusual for Mammoth to be 40% open with none of the top as it is now. I am at least as shocked as sierra_cement that Mott is open now.

Has much of anyone on these forums actually skied yet this season?

My two ski days have been somewhat similar to the final 4 days last spring. It has been warm~50F so comfortable to be outside the whole time. It's clear at Mammoth that lift lines will be longer at half capacity when it's crowded, but on Dec. 2 it wasn't that busy.

There were lots of people at Snow Summit yesterday, but there's a lot of lift capacity so I can't say the lines were out of the ordinary. Skier density was a bit above average with only half the runs open. I do fear the remote Brownie parking lot and its cattle car shuttle, so want to be early enough to avoid that. If the cattle cars run at reduced capacity I could envision a 45 minute wait to get on because I've experienced 20 minutes in normal years on a busy weekend.

The situation will vary by ski area, date and weather. As a retiree I will try diligently to avoid the negative scenarios. But I think it will be tough for weekend warriors, and regions like Front Range Colorado that run close to full capacity in normal times will be the most challenging. It doesn't help that Front Range Colorado is one of the colder regions.

No Idea how a place like Silver ID or Sunshine AB can deal with super cold days with crazy long access gondolas in the mix...

Sunshine is probably the coldest lift service in western North America, so I see that plus the gondola as a problem best avoided in 2020-21, though a moot point to us Americans. Kicking Horse is probably worse as you need to use the gondola all day, not just for access, and it's a cold mountain too.

In the US I see Big Sky and Jackson as the worst in terms of tram/gondola dependence plus cold.

Silver Mt. is extremely uncrowded, sees something like 80K skier visits, about on a par with Castle. It's also in the Interior Northwest, not as cold as the continental climates, though of course it can be wet. The gondola is used twice a day as transport between parking and skiing. I anticipate we will ski Silver this season.

 

[tseeb]

I know Heavenly has a big water pipe on lookers left of Gunbarrel, but I have never seen them blowing snow on it except about 1/3 of the way down where run narrows and is more exposed to the sun. While lower CA is generally W to NW- facing, the left side is shaded by trees especially this time of year.

Usually Gunbarrel below where Roundabout crosses it is ski at your own risk and this season I would not do it with any skis you care about. I have seen Heavenly open the Face entirely on man-made snow, but that was many years ago and I have not seen them attempt it recently when they seem to be OK with making everyone download. I'm sure they have a lot of warning signs where you enter The Face between the top of the Tram and Gunbarrel chair and may even have it closed in the morning or staffed with ski patrol discouraging people from going down.

Best source of current operations is Tweets at bottom of https://www.skiheavenly.com/the-mountai ... tatus.aspx or you can signup to get them which I do if at Tahoe. Yesterday the gondola and lifts at the top of it were on wind hold. Today they are on maintenance hold.

They have opened Mott earlier than expected in recent years. I think it is ski at your own risk and they will open with 2-3' of snow to get it packed down vs. having it slide. The E-facing slope on either side of the lift is problematic as it has manzanita or other brush that takes about 5' to cover and it gets baked. I would expect very protected N-facing Bill's and The Y to be open although getting there from lower gates (vs. from Milky Way Bowl) could be tricky. You would have to watch for big rocks and they would be no fall zones. The next run towards chair, Snake Eyes, would have mandatory air if open. Widowmaker and Hully Gully, closer to chair, are shaded and should be skiable.

 

[tseeb]

Following report from Mott Canyon opening day was posted today in Tahoe thread at skitalk.com:

A bit belated but I skied six runs in Mott on opening day (Monday). Haven't been back in there since but report is probably still valid due to lack of snow since then.

Mott on opening day was the most marginal I've ever skied it. I have rock skis for early season, but even so had to question whether it was worth the average of almost one core shot per run. I decided it was worth it, barely, for the runs past Rocky Point. The ridge traverse there is marginal enough that most of the (few) people who venture here are removing their skis to walk over the rocks. But that kept down the crowds, and each of the runs past that point had only a couple of tracks in them. But plenty of rocks hidden just beneath the surface on the descent. The snow in the morning on those north facing shaded aspects was heavy but still fun to ski. Everything else had a crust layer, and by the afternoon the warm temps mushed up even the north facing stuff to the extent that I'd expect there is crust in there right now.

The main runs under Gates 3 and 4 are more east facing and had crust layers prior to rope drop, but after enough people entered them to slough them out they were skiable, albeit with some billy goating to avoid obstacles.

There were zero lift lines on Mott Canyon on Monday, making it the only lift at Heavenly with ski-on lift access that day. Lines on Dipper were 15-20+ minutes for most of the day and I found it was faster to just hike up from the top of Mott to Gates 1 and 2.

The forecast is for the next couple of storms to be low-moderate in precip, with colder temps and lighter snow density. Given all the obstacles just beneath the surface my recommendation would stay out of Mott this week unless you have skis you don't care about. Mott needs at least one large base-building snowstorm before most people would want to ski in there, and unfortunately there's no such storm in the 7 day forecast.

It's probably better to not be there on opening day as you want others to uncover the rocks.

 

[EMSC]

Wow, that's opening terrain in true desperation.

I haven't seen that level of desperation in Colorado yet. The stuff that's open that I've seen has had the occasional 'bones', but nothing too objectionable for early season snowpack.

 

[Tony Crocker]

I updated the Front Range Colorado file and these areas are still below 25th percentile in open terrain for Christmas. Steamboat is at a record low 48%. Beaver Creek, Keystone, Vail and Winter Park are the highest in the 60% range. As usual A-Basin and Loveland bring up the rear, but under 20% open at Christmas is bad even for them.

Sierra ski areas are in a similar situation as the Front Range. In both regions base depths average less than 3 feet, which means steep terrain is not open or extremely sketchy like Mott Canyon.

As Evan has noted at OpenSnow, the modest storms this season in Utah have favored LCC to an extreme degree. LCC is about 3/4 open, BCC half open, and the rest of Utah hurting. Park City is 16% open.

If COVID is keeping you home this Christmas, there's not a lot of FOMO as far as skiing is concerned:

 

[EMSC]

If COVID is keeping you home this Christmas, there's not a lot of FOMO as far as skiing is concerned:

But if your alternative is siting around the house, then at least front range Colo skiing is definitely 'good enough' for getting out and enjoying things IMO. Copper for example is at 800 acres, which is just enough to range across a decent chunk of the mtn with multiple trail options for the most part, though the steep stuff is not yet open. Just last year I was already skiing Tucker Mtn at Copper at this time: http://www.firsttracksonline.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=14136

Seems some OK snow will be falling over the next week or so (including overnight last night) and hopefully that finally starts to get things opening up.