Friday Wx Situation

[powderfreak]

I was thinking about pulling the trigger tonight and addressing this as a serious thought...though am holding off for tonight's 00z runs. European looks good for interior snowfall though GFS keeps significant precipitation near the I-95 corridor from Philly to Boston (with best snow just inland from I-95, but no significant impact on ski country). Either way, this will be a fast moving storm and the dynamics are not all that impressive as no model has the system phasing with the northern stream...so one low over the northern Great Lakes tangos with the other one moving off the mid-Atlantic coast ENE towards the outter Cape. Right now, both lows are too weak to be a major threat but if more energy can get transferred to the southern low as it hits the New England coast, we might be in business. Even if the current solution is forecasted, it'll be a nail-biter till the end as confidence is high in the overall track just off the coast...however, we'd need some extra strength to really get decent snowfall further inland. Light accumulating snows are likely on Friday across most of the northeast at the very least as the front of the trough swings through. Some parameters are there for a light upslope event (1-4") in the northern Greens on Friday night...but again, the split low pressures will not allow for even moderate (4"-8") upslope. A lot will change if we can get the southern low more energy to work with.

-Scott

ps: Interesting scenario late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning as a clipper moves through...Canadian model showing possible strengthening in the Gulf of Maine, enough to enhance snowfall in NH/ME. Clipper might even be able to drop up to a couple inches in places that need it like the Catskills, Berkshires, and southern VT...as it looks too far south for much more than flurries in NNY and NVT.

 

[Nhski]

In reading the NWS out of Burlington and Gray, looks like Sunday RIver might be the choice for this storm, what do you think Powderfreak?

 

[Harvey]

Accuweather is always the first to cry wolf:

A major winter storm will move into the East on Thursday night into Friday as the jet stream pulls a Gulf Coast storm and its rich moisture into the cold air over the Northeast. According to the Winter Weather Center, as much as a foot of snow will fall over a wide area from northeastern Pennsylvania to Maine, with similar amounts forecast in the northern mountains of West Virginia.

 

[powderfreak]

In reading the NWS out of Burlington and Gray, looks like Sunday RIver might be the choice for this storm, what do you think Powderfreak?

Yeah they'd be in one of the better positions of anyone on the east coasts. For right now will go with 4-6" but see my weather discussion for Friday and Saturday I posted today. Might shed some light. This still has like a 50-50 shot at missing everyone north of NJ but there's a storm a few days later that will depend on what happens with the first storm.