How Good/Great is Silverton?

Surprised not to see Wolf Creek on that list. Note that the biggest number at 46 inches was "Crested Butte 5 NW" vs. 16 at Crested Butte itself. That's probably the Kebler Pass microclimate that Knox Williams told me about: #2 to Buffalo Pass in Colorado snowfall. Coal Bank Pass is south of Silverton, that storm came from the SW so Purgatory got much more than Telluride. Long term Telluride gets somewhat more than Purgatory as more storms hit the San Juans from Utah than from the SW. My educated guess is that Silverton benefits from the same snow pattern as Purgatory (34 inches from this storm) but gets more as it's higher and nearer the crest of the San Juans.
 
We should get yet another opptunity to evaluate biggish snow numbers from around the area this weekend into early next week as another 1-2 feet+ is forcast for the area. Silverton opeaned today after mon tues big dump with 49 dollar unguided tix.
 
We should get yet another opptunity to evaluate biggish snow numbers from around the area this weekend into early next week as another 1-2 feet+ is forcast for the area.
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I would recommend comparing storm totals to Purgatory, and Red Mt. Pass if available.
 
Ok From what I read Purgatory recorded 23in from the storm, Crested Butte 30in and Silverton 21".
I have attached a link from noaa, very interesting stuff.
From CIAC
Coal bank pass picked up another 33in and 2.95in water
REd mountian Pass 19 (only 13 on snowtel)
I am begging to believe that the Red mountain Pass snotel is either in a less snowy area or reads low according to the last two storms and the reports from either Cdot or CIAC.
To me Silverton has been reporting spot on numbers, most storms seem to deposit more snow at silverton then purgatory this was an exception, maybe it came in more from the south down there, then in Utah.
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cm ... 8&source=0
 
most storms seem to deposit more snow at silverton then purgatory
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True, but Purgatory averages 275. Add 20% gets you to 330, which is probably reasonable.

I'm also willing to suggest that the Silverton overreporting in 2005 was a temporary phenomenon. The type of skier who would go there is also the type that might call them out on it. It's much easier for a marketing department to say "we get 400 inches a year (name withheld but FTO regulars probably can guess)" than to overstate storm totals by 50%, which regular eyewitnesses can dispute.
 
Tony Crocker":x8mzsrcp said:
most storms seem to deposit more snow at silverton then purgatory
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True, but Purgatory averages 275. Add 20% gets you to 330, which is probably reasonable.

I'm also willing to suggest that the Silverton overreporting in 2005 was a temporary phenomenon. The type of skier who would go there is also the type that might call them out on it. It's much easier for a marketing department to say "we get 400 inches a year (name withheld but FTO regulars probably can guess)" than to overstate storm totals by 50%, which regular eyewitnesses can dispute.
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*cough* Big Sky *cough*
 
I have skied Silverton almost every year since they opened and find they typically over-report snowfall by about 15-25% every storm.

The Beartown Snotel plot (http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/snotel/sno ... 7&state=co) is 11,600 just about 2 miles further SouthWest than Silverton ski area -- up the road from where Silverton's frontside trails come down.

Silverton snow data is from a mid mountain elevation of 11,800’ on the northside of the mountain.

As a check, here are the totals from Beartown Snotel plot vs. Silverton.

Storm #1 Dec 6-9 - 29" vs. 38"

Storm #2 Dec 12-15 - 15" vs. 21"


Again, Silverton measures its snow on the leeward side of a mostly NNW-SSW ridge. This is optimal orientation to catch lots of wind-loaded snow - hence inflating its totals.

But most mountains do not orient their snowfall plots to take advantage of Westerlies / Soouthwesterlies.


For example, Telluride measures its snow almost slightly into wind -- in area exposed to the West Southweterly storm winds. The result of this is you can take Telluride reported snow and add 25% on North / Northeast Slopes -- the new Revelation Bowl gets almost 50% more.

In California, I have found Alpine Meadows tends to over-report compared to Squaw.
 
optimal orientation to catch lots of wind-loaded snow
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In some of the NWS archives you can find a site "Wolf Creek 1E" which is near to the road and more exposed to wind loading than in the ski area. This site is the source of those anecdotal comments about 800 inch years in the 1970's. Knox Williams knew about that site and that it was very unreliable.

As one who spends a lot of time in the area, perhaps ChrisC would like to give an educated opinion of where Silverton's snowfall stacks up vs. Purgatory, Telluride and Red Mt. Pass.

And where do you get snowfall as opposed to snow water equivalent out of the SNOTEL data?

In California, I have found Alpine Meadows tends to over-report compared to Squaw.
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The long term average of 366 slots right in between the upper (448) and lower (272) Squaw numbers, which is just what I would expect. There are cases where in-season reports from marketing are not the same as the end of season numbers I collect from ski patrols. Last year Mammoth corrected this discrepancy in their historical data.
 
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According to Chris the low end of over reporting at 15% puts them in the 340 range. So there you have it, at 340 there is still no place in the Conti US I would rather ski that has a lift and avy control.
 
I have skied Silverton almost every year since they opened and find they typically over-report snowfall by about 15-25% every storm.
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Just went from that.

Can you or someone explain to us lay people how the snotel sites work (I think I have a accurate idea) and how they might differ from a ski area measuring protocal?
Also you have stated in this thread that you think 320 is a reasonable number for Silverton, whats another 20 inches on average.
 
My understanding is that SNOTELs do not measure snowfall but snow water equivalent, which means water content. This is done by weighing the new snow, which can be done by remote sensor rather than manual observation. Snowfall measurements in remote mountain sites are rare because they require a person to visit the site daily. This is my source of frustration is determining snowfall in the vast areas of British Columbia used for snowcat and heliskiing. For example CMH has extensive snowfall info from the Bugaboo Lodge. But it's only about 200 inches per year, not useful for where people actually ski there, a few thousand feet higher. There is only one site to my knowledge with extensive in the entire region at ski-applicable elevation: Mt. Fidelity in Glacier National Park: 484 inches at 6,150 feet.

Another issue in Colorado is that at those very high elevations more snow falls proportionately before November 1 and after April 30 than in most mountain regions. This is mostly irrelevant from a skier's perspective, but we know Silverton likes to put out press releases and pics after those September/October storms, even though that snow will be long gone by the time the area is open to the public. Wolf Creek and Loveland probably get 50 inches of snow outside the 11/1/-04/30 timeframe, so 35 inches or so for Silverton is quite likely.

My objective is to compare areas on a consistent basis, for which Nov. 1 - April 30 is usually the best yardstick. The relevant question is how does Silverton's snowfall and snowpack compare to its near neighbors Durango, Telluride and Red Mt. Pass vs. the well known Wolf Creek microclimate. Probably in between but very likely closer to the former than the latter, as I suspect people like ChrisC who spend a lot of time in the region would agree by personal observation. Since Wolf Creek is 390 November to April and the other places are under 300, I would be very skeptical of 350+ at Silverton.
 
Tony Crocker":gyvb26y9 said:
And where are you get snowfall as opposed to snow water equivalent out of the SNOTEL data?
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Change in snow depth from one day the next perhaps?
 
Tony Crocker":356wz1th said:
As one who spends a lot of time in the area, perhaps ChrisC would like to give an educated opinion of where Silverton's snowfall stacks up vs. Purgatory, Telluride and Red Mt. Pass.
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The San Juans are a little tougher to understand than other ranges.

WA, OR, and CA mountain snowfall can be explained by proximity to Pacific Crest and/or passes. Other ranges (Tetons, Wasatch) sit as walls stopping storms.

San Juans are kinda a high pentagon of mountains with a hole/valley in the middle. Telluride on the Northwest outside side. Silverton sits in an interior high valley directly in the middle of the range. Red Mountain Pass is the notch/tunnel into the center from the northside. Purgatory unfortunately is located in the foothills of the range on the south side.

Snow-wise, many of the exposures cancel each other out since storms move in from various directions.
Purgatory - the obvious loser in most instances. Not in really in the same league as the rest since they are totally shielded from the NW flow very common in the winter.
Telluride - I have seen storms come directly down from Utah and get stuck on Telluride - NW flow is the optimal track. Meanwhile Southern flow storms only graze Telluride - Lizard Head range/pass/Wilson/etc sit and block the place.
Red Mt / Silverton - Storms seem to be able to travel more uniformally up through the central valley of the range where Silverton/Red Mtn Pass are located. I have to drive via Red Mt on route to Silverton-from-Telluride and never really observe significant snowfall differences between Red vs. Silverton. If a storm comes in from the south, it seems to get pushed up against Red Mt. as much as Silverton.

Overall, Telluride-RedMtnPass-Telluride are not really more than 10 miles away from one another. Telluride-Red are practically connected in the same high plateau of 13/14k peak.

My argument would be against any of them being located in a unique micro-climate yeilding 400". Or that they could deviate significantly from one another.

My biggest issue is Silverton repeated over-reporting individual snowfalls - adding them together - and saying they equal 400". Also, Silverton never shows any compaction in their base. San Juan snow is about the driest in the country (elevation, low humidity, and desert) and compact significantly. This natural process is not reflected in Silverton's snowfall reporting either.

The long term average of 366 slots right in between the upper (448) and lower (272) Squaw numbers, which is just what I would expect. There are cases where in-season reports from marketing are not the same as the end of season numbers I collect from ski patrols. Last year Mammoth corrected this discrepancy in their historical data.
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My issue with Squaw vs. Alpine is not overall averages - but the storm-by-storm totals. Alpine typicall reports more than Squaw 8 times out of 10. Reasons are not explainable - nor observable.
 
I have to drive via Red Mt on route to Silverton-from-Telluride and never really observe significant snowfall differences between Red vs. Silverton.
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This is very persuasive to me. Even the casual observer driving up to Wolf Creek in winter/spring can tell the snowpack is much deeper than any other road accessible location in the Southwest.
 
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