Hurray!!! Snow in the Forecast for Utah!!!

[Sharon]

I knew it would happen.

http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/ ... nty=utc035

Well, it isn't anything definite, but a 30-40% chance is still a chance.

Keep yer fingers crossed.

-Sharon

 

[Admin]

Don't hold yer breath. (Or with the current inversion, perhaps doing so is a good idea.)

 

[Marc_C]

Here's a south facing slope at The Canyons [photo: Bruce Tremper]

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Putting his avalanche expertise to work.
:lol:

 

[sszycher]

I'm also headed out to UT next week for a few days. It appears the best chances for some (light) snow are Tues nite into Weds., then again around next Fri nite, give or take 12 hours.

I think the UT residents on this board mis-understand us East Coasters who follow the forecasts and weather models for weeks prior to our trips. Believe it or not, stressing ourselves out about the weather/snow conditions is actually part of the fun, as perverse as it seems.

Remember, while the skiing in the East is a lot of fun when things break right, going out West is like our Super Bowl...we put a lot of emotional energy into it. Most of us can only get out West 1x/year or 1x every few years depending on $$, family & work obligations, etc., so I speak from experience when I say that a subpar trip out West is kin of a bummer (i.e. Jan 03).

I know the skiing & riding is usually pretty good, but when you're 2 weeks out from a trip, and the long range forecasts basically say "high & dry out West", you do get concerned.

 

[Admin]

Bruce's photo posted by Marc_C is taken from the Shortcut chair, and honestly -- that's looked that way all winter, but by no means is it indicative of the snowpack on the ski runs. Now, that said, of the places I've been this season thus far (Alta, Snowbird, Solitude, PCMR, Powder Mt. and The Canyons) The Canyons had the least snow. Add Brighton to the list tomorrow, as Base Camp product testing for the Outdoor Retailer show is there tomorrow. \/

 

[jasoncapecod]

I think the UT residents on this board mis-understand us East Coasters who follow the forecasts and weather models for weeks prior to our trips. Believe it or not, stressing ourselves out about the weather/snow conditions is actually part of the fun, as perverse as it seems

Well said, I still have 3 weeks to go before i arrive. The long range models are making me crazy.. i can't remember the last time there has been such a snow drought from coast to coast.. I have faith that the snow will fly before i arrive

 

[jamesdeluxe]

I speak from experience when I say that a subpar trip out West is kin of a bummer (i.e. Jan 03).

Heh, another ECer who got hosed like me by that NCP 2003 event in Utah.

We'll never forget. NEVER.

 

[sszycher]

James, I'm getting very concerned that if it's a "dry" cold front that comes thru on Tues/Weds, then I'll be looking at a thaw/freeze scenario. I just read a report from someone in Park City saying it just got very warm (40's) and things are getting slushy.

Oh my God, will I be staring down the barrel of a nightmare scenario where I should be looking at cancelling my trip? I would only "lose" the $50 in related fees from a frequent flier trip. And since I expect to be starting a new job in mid-Feb, postponing the trip to late Feb or March is out of the question.

Anyone care to talk me off this cliff? Should I start drinking heavily?

 

[jamesdeluxe]

Stressing ourselves out about the weather/snow conditions is actually part of the fun, as perverse as it seems.

Doctor, heal thyself.


The only time I would recommend completely nixing a trip to SLC is if you're looking at another Jan 2003 scenario. If it's warm, just stay in the Cottonwoods.

BTW, for some reason, I had never made it up to Brighton (the pull of Solitude was always too strong to resist), but I finally gave in during my early December trip and really liked it, even though I'm told that I shouldn't because people think it's a Utah version of East Coast terrain. Check it out on a weekday -- it's a lot more fun than people give it credit for, at least for a day or two.

 

[tirolerpeter]

Stressing ourselves out about the weather/snow conditions is actually part of the fun, as perverse as it seems.

Doctor, heal thyself.


The only time I would recommend completely nixing a trip to SLC is if you're looking at another Jan 2003 scenario. If it's warm, just stay in the Cottonwoods.

BTW, for some reason, I had never made it up to Brighton (the pull of Solitude was always too strong to resist), but I finally gave in during my early December trip and really liked it, even though I'm told that I shouldn't because people think it's a Utah version of East Coast terrain. Check it out on a weekday -- it's a lot more fun than people give it credit for, at least for a day or two.

Don't stress about going. There will be plenty to ski.

BTW, Brighton has some really fine "tree skiing." My son and I were there at the beginning of Dec and there was already enough cover to enjoy the tree runs. Hopefully you will get lucky and they will get enough snow to "freshen things up" a bit. It is hard to "miss" when you go to SLC.

 

[jamesdeluxe]

My son and I were there at the beginning of Dec and there was already enough cover to enjoy the tree runs.

I was there on the exact same day... can't believe we didn't run into each other as we were probably the only people there on skis.

 

[hayduke]

even during the last 2 excellent years in lcc, the weather report FOR THE NEXT DAY was frequently wrong. and looking more than a few days ahead was a waste of time. that being sais, the avalanch report found right here has been the most accurate for me

 

[Marc_C]

James, I'm getting very concerned that if it's a "dry" cold front that comes thru on Tues/Weds, then I'll be looking at a thaw/freeze scenario. I just read a report from someone in Park City saying it just got very warm (40's) and things are getting slushy.

Oh my God, will I be staring down the barrel of a nightmare scenario where I should be looking at cancelling my trip? I would only "lose" the $50 in related fees from a frequent flier trip. And since I expect to be starting a new job in mid-Feb, postponing the trip to late Feb or March is out of the question.

Only consider canceling if, and only if, somehow you will be depressed and miserable if you're not skiing deep, fresh powder. IF that's the case, rebook for somewhere in the Pacific northwest or British Columbia.

Right now the skiing is good, well-packed powder. Follow the sun and the crusts soften and are manageable. Due to our low snowpack, expect rocks on the off-piste terrain. Yes, it's getting into the 40's at 8K' and the low 30's at 10.5K' with a nightly refreeze. We might even start getting corn soon. The heavily skied lines offer the best skiing right now.

The pertinent section from today's avi advisory:

Current Conditions:
Yesterday, we had very warm temperatures with ridge top temperatures above 30 degrees and 8,000? temperatures into the mid 40?s. Ridge top temperatures have dropped six degrees from yesterday morning as colder air slowly creeps in from the east. Ridge top temperatures are 25 degrees with a 5-10 mph wind from the northwest.

Snow surface are curiously similar to yesterday and the day before that and before that, and so on. And they will be curiously similar tomorrow and they day after that and, well, OK, you get the idea. Most of the south facing slopes have melted out to bare ground. East and west facing slopes are crusted. Tree line and above are wind blasted. North facing, wind and sun-sheltered slopes are the only bright spot. You can still find a few scraps of soft, recrystallized snow that feels like powder if you don?t know any better but slopes that were supportable a few days ago are now pig wallows where you sink to your waist in loose, faceted snow. Plus, you have to be VERY creative and adventurous to find any slopes that are not completely tracked out. If any of this sounds good to you, then you are a fully certified member of the Optimist Club.

Mountain Weather:
Temperatures will continue to cool today with ridge top temperatures sinking down to the mid 20? and 8,000? temperatures in the mid 30?s. Ridge top winds will remain light from the northwest. Saturday, ridge top temperature will be in the lower 20?s.

For the extended forecast, we have a weak disturbance going by to the east of us this weekend, which may give us a cloud or two, but not much more. Then it still looks like a big blast of cold air out of central Canada for next Wednesday, which may actually give us some snow, but probably not much of it.

 

[Tony Crocker]

It looks like Utah is going into the "spring conditions" phase. I get a lot of this on my March trips, and I have been very pleased with the skiing.
BUT:
1) The base was a lot deeper
2) To get corn you need a fast warmup, and in January the sun is too low for that except on direct south faces, many of which have marginal cover now.
3) The refreeze scenario is more likely now than in March. A couple of years ago it did happen late in the week after I went home Tuesday.

Jan. 2003 is the worst case scenario, and with a cooloff and no new snow that's what would happen now. Base depths are actually a bit higher now than then, as shown in the Utah avy center's Snowbird graph. And in Utah the cooloff is usually, but not always accompanied by new snow.

If you are on FF miles and not out lodging cost, I think it's worth paying the $50 or $100 to reroute to Seattle or Spokane, as discussed in the other thread. While you probably won't get the Jan. 2003 situation for a whole week in Utah, you've already committed $1000+, so why not spend the extra $50 or $100 for substantially better conditions in the Northwest? Crystal and Schweitzer are large and interesting ski mountains, and you CAN drive north to Whistler, Red, Fernie without a passport this year.

 

[sszycher]

Shorter Tony Crocker: start drinking heavily. :x

My situation doesn't allow for much flexibility, in the sense that I am meeting friends out there who already have a condo near PowMow, so pursuing other areas/flights/arrangements become much more expensive (I'd be absorbing all the lodging costs instead of a cost-sharing arrangements in a condo) as well as antisocial & lonely (by myself instead of the company of friends).

Boy, if my ski day at Pico tomorrow (I'll file a report on the Eastern board regarding that) provides better conditions than the Wasatch next week, after the Winter the East has had, we really will have entered a parallel universe!

 

[Marc_C]

Boy, if my ski day at Pico tomorrow (I'll file a report on the Eastern board regarding that) provides better conditions than the Wasatch next week,

It won't. :wink:

 

[Tony Crocker]

Boy, if my ski day at Pico tomorrow (I'll file a report on the Eastern board regarding that) provides better conditions than the Wasatch next week,

It could. In the short run strange things happen. If you recall admin moved to Utah in late January 2 years ago. As soon as he left Albany it started snowing in the East and stopped in Utah. But since he was going to be there the rest of the season, I knew he would have the last laugh.

 

[Admin]

Again, the sky isn't falling.

I was at Brighton yesterday, riding only the Millicent chair and testing skis at the Outdoor Retailer Backcountry Base Camp day. Groomers were groomers. East-facing ungroomed was crap, but north-facing stayed dry and chalky. It skied very well.

Both friend John and I agreed that there's a lot more snow at Alta right now than at Brighton.

 

[tirolerpeter]

My son and I were there at the beginning of Dec and there was already enough cover to enjoy the tree runs.

I was there on the exact same day... can't believe we didn't run into each other as we were probably the only people there on skis.

Just saw your post. I agree about your skier/boarder ratio comment. I think it was about 15 boarders to 1 skier. Even my son was on a snow board. He stopped skiing due to knee problems. With two feet working in tandem he has much less pain. We had to skip Alta for that reason. I'm in the last days of recovery from brain surgery. My wife and I sold our house in November, and are now living in an apartment until we can move. If all goes well, we will be headed west around Mar 15th. I'm certainly hoping for a snowy March so that I can get in some quality slope time into April.