Is the ski resort model dead?

Mike Bernstein":vitq1vc1 said:
soulskier":vitq1vc1 said:
MRA currently has over 70 people actively working together to forward the organization. We are having a think tank scheduled for next month that includes some industry veterans. We have several graduate students that are doing their thesis on different components of the MRA business plan. Some of them will even be aiding in the grant writing. I feel confident we can multi-task on various projects and share best practices under the same parent company.
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How many of those 70 people are working on the MRA full-time? How many have practical experience with any of the issues you are facing? To what exent are their efforts being directed or managed on a consistent basis so that you can ensure that the agenda is being pushed forward correctly and at the necessary speed?

It's great that you are having a brain storming session with industry veterans - what about the follow up? Do you have an organization in place that is capable of executing on the good ideas they come up with?

As for the graduate students, that seems like a better deal for them than for you. There are lots of businesses where students form an important component of the workforce. They are called fast food restaurants.

I wish you the best of luck here. You're going to need it.
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Thanks for your confidence!
 
soulskier":43qdman0 said:
Thanks for your confidence!
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Which completely ignores the relevant issues that Bernstein has raised. Why not answer the questions directly? Surely potential investors will have the same questions, and I doubt that they'd be pleased with that answer.
 
I think it would be best for Soulskier not to see these comments as attacks, but rather arguments that might be made by potential investors. He should use this forum as preparation for these types of questions that very well could be asked. On this forum he can't be hurt, but when actual investors come knocking on the door this online vetting could be quite useful. Therefore, I think it would behoove him to strive to make strong answers and where he doesn't have answers he should research as to answer the question at a later date.

I believe that most of us on this forum would love to see a ski area such as the one he proposes. I find it disheartening that Soulskier responds antagonistically to questions and points that are valid rather than taking a more thoughtful approach. I would imagine any business that requires investment needs an unbelievable amount of prep, confidence, but also a fair amount of skepticism. I think it's best to be prepared for all sorts of unseeable things that can derail your business plan.
 
rfarren":3075jxdn said:
I think it would be best for Soulskier not to see these comments as attacks, but rather arguments that might be made by potential investors. He should use this forum as preparation for these types of questions that very well could be asked. On this forum he can't be hurt, but when actual investors come knocking on the door this online vetting could be quite useful. Therefore, I think it would behoove him to strive to make strong answers and where he doesn't have answers he should research as to answer the question at a later date.

I believe that most of us on this forum would love to see a ski area such as the one he proposes. I find it disheartening that Soulskier responds antagonistically to questions and points that are valid rather than taking a more thoughtful approach. I would imagine any business that requires investment needs an unbelievable amount of prep, confidence, but also a fair amount of skepticism. I think it's best to be prepared for all sorts of unseeable things that can derail your business plan.
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No man, you just don't "get it". I have nothing to learn from a bunch of desk jockeys who don't open it up to Mach 3 on 40 deg pitches for 2000' at a time. It's clear you are just another toadie for the corporate ski industry who can't see how transformative our valued-based ski-energy center model will be. (/soulskier)
 
rfarren":2t80ud4h said:
I think it would be best for Soulskier not to see these comments as attacks, but rather arguments that might be made by potential investors. He should use this forum as preparation for these types of questions that very well could be asked. On this forum he can't be hurt, but when actual investors come knocking on the door this online vetting could be quite useful. Therefore, I think it would behoove him to strive to make strong answers and where he doesn't have answers he should research as to answer the question at a later date.

I believe that most of us on this forum would love to see a ski area such as the one he proposes. I find it disheartening that Soulskier responds antagonistically to questions and points that are valid rather than taking a more thoughtful approach. I would imagine any business that requires investment needs an unbelievable amount of prep, confidence, but also a fair amount of skepticism. I think it's best to be prepared for all sorts of unseeable things that can derail your business plan.
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Rob, you have the first part spot on. I don't feel compelled or the need to answer questions here, but rest assured the awesome critique the board offers is being carefully detailed.
 
Mike Bernstein":17ohlszi said:
No man, you just don't "get it". I have nothing to learn from a bunch of desk jockeys who don't open it up to Mach 3 on 40 deg pitches for 2000' at a time. It's clear you are just another toadie for the corporate ski industry who can't see how transformative our valued-based ski-energy center model will be. (/soulskier)
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Sancho Panza to soulskier's Don Quixote. The tale even has windmills.
 
Tony Crocker":2w9at8s1 said:
Does anybody else from SoCal remember the "Bandini Mountain" ads from the 1970's?
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I remember there were such ads, and plenty of cracks made invoking them. The Times article reminded me of this:

" A dogged collection of athletes attempted to conquer "Bandini Mountain," a 90- to 100-foot mound of dung stored on the company's seven-acre facility before its transformation into soil additive. One skied the hill while others pole-vaulted, launched shotputs and even triple-jumped into its steaming slopes."
 
The above article, though published recently, was written about visiting ski areas during the 2008-09 season. As noted by the "5% drop in skier visits but 20% drop in ancillary revenues" at Vail. From what I have read, the strong early season of 2010-11 is likely to result in a new record for U.S. skier visits, surpassing 2007-08. It will be interesting to see some revenue breakdowns on that, whether the trend of 2008-09 is continuing.

I agree with the article that the luxury end has been overbuilt. But I think the demographics in the U.S. are now favoring growth in skier/rider visits. Since I believe that growth is coming from the younger Echo Boomer generation, that would tend to favor the core ski experience at the expense of luxury amenities which are less important and affordable to younger skiers/riders.

I still believe if you have a premium product like Vail, the high end stuff is quite supportable. But not at a mid-range place like Tamarack.
 
Tony Crocker":13y0btm2 said:
But I think the demographics in the U.S. are now favoring growth in skier/rider visits. Since I believe that growth is coming from the younger Echo Boomer generation.
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Tony, you are over estimating the importance of the Echo Boomer generation in term of numbers. What is the socio-economic profil of this boom? Pretty much everything I've read foresee a decline in actual numbers in the coming decades.
 
Patrick":sune6stt said:
Pretty much everything I've read foresee a decline in actual numbers in the coming decades.
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It's like a certain other debate we have on these boards. :stir: I prefer to trust actual data instead of somebody's projection model. The data says U.S. skier visits are rising. Do we really think skier visits are increasing among the Boomer generation now aged 47-64 (thus the projected crash)? New skiers come mainly from the 10-30 age range. The extended flat period in U.S. skier visits in the 80's and 90's corresponded with the Baby Bust being in that age range.

The only other source of growth would be foreign tourism. I don't see any reason why we should expect that to decline, and there are logical reasons it would increase. Foreign tourism is most like to benefit the marquee resorts, as we know it does at Vail and Whistler already.

Canada's population is growing less than in the U.S., but I suspect foreign ski tourism to Canada is growing at least as fast as in the U.S.
 
Tony Crocker":5xuxsi8o said:
Patrick":5xuxsi8o said:
Pretty much everything I've read foresee a decline in actual numbers in the coming decades.
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It's like a certain other debate we have on these boards. :stir: I prefer to trust actual data instead of somebody's projection model. The data says U.S. skier visits are rising. Do we really think skier visits are increasing among the Boomer generation now aged 47-64 (thus the projected crash)? New skiers come mainly from the 10-30 age range. The extended flat period in U.S. skier visits in the 80's and 90's corresponded with the Baby Bust being in that age range.
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Coming decades!!! [-X

Even the ski industry is expecting it. It's not a model, it's actual numbers. Unless people stop dying, the ski industry gets new immigrants or attracting new skiers in sufficient numbers or/and skier start having big families.

Tony Crocker":5xuxsi8o said:
The only other source of growth would be foreign tourism. I don't see any reason why we should expect that to decline, and there are logical reasons it would increase. Foreign tourism is most like to benefit the marquee resorts, as we know it does at Vail and Whistler already.

Canada's population is growing less than in the U.S., but I suspect foreign ski tourism to Canada is growing at least as fast as in the U.S.
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Not with the value of the Canadian dollar right now. :stir:

Canada's population growth is mainly through immigration like most other Western Industrialised Countries.

Seriously, you talking about foreign tourism...European skiing countries and Japan's demographics situation is even more negative than Canada. I'm not talking on a yearly basic, but over decades. Flying to the US is becoming an increasing pain for non Americans (I've spoken a few international skier over the last few years). Fees, security screening, etc. Oh yeah, and the US President is talking about adding a fee for Canadian going over the border. Let see, you add that cost $30 to bring skis on a flight US bound ($50 to Europe), but was still free (the last time I checked :roll: ) elsewhere in Canada or SA bound.
 
Down the road I see the foreign tourism coming from the newly affluent in places like Latin America (already evident at Vail) and China.

The under age 40 proportion of US population looks fairly stable going forward: http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/ ... -1950.html. The very modest decline in that proportion is likely offset by the increase in absolute numbers.

There is a significant decline imminent in the 40-60 age group, which is supportive of the warnings expressed in this thread about too much chasing the high end market.
 
Tony Crocker":r292ss3m said:
Down the road I see the foreign tourism coming from the newly affluent in places like Latin America (already evident at Vail) and China.
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:shock: :shock: :shock: China will have their own World Class ski areas and what is going to be the proportion of Chinease skiers (I know the population numbers) or even total numbers that are going to be willing to go overseas to ski in the US. Latin America, the same thing. What is the proportion of skiers in those countries? And the proportion of those going to ski in NA. It's going to be a slightly bigger impact than the Royal Family skiing Whistler for a week, but probably not much more. :sabre fight:
 
Patrick":3teukczw said:
China will have their own World Class ski areas
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:rotfl: You're the geographer; I suggest you research weather a bit. Northern China/Manchuria is cold but bone dry in the winter. They are building ski areas there, but they have 100% snowmaking dependence. I don't know if they are considering developing the "real mountains" in the West in Tibet or the Tian Shens. I suspect winter weather is severe enough in those places (plus they are 5 hour flights from anywhere) to make that a questionable proposition.

The Chinese middle/upper class is already 400M. A tiny fraction of that can have an impact, just as the Brazilian affluent class is a key revenue source in Chilean and Argentinian ski areas.

Patrick":3teukczw said:
Latin America......the proportion of those going to ski in NA.
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If you had ever skied Vail during Easter week you wouldn't be asking that question.
 
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