Unfortunately, I don’t have time to follow the weather throughout the entire Northeast as much as I’d like, but I am able to follow the snowfall/weather/skiing in Northern Vermont
very closely, so I can make some comments on how this season has gone so far in this sub-region. In general I’d side with Tony in saying that the conditions have been close to average around here, but I certainly wouldn’t put them any higher than that. Sure there has been some great powder, but as I always say, that’s just the way it should be. In fact, I think I could make an argument based on the data below, that we’re actually a bit
below average using some of the standard metrics. I’ve alluded to this before, but personally, I think that many people have a rather warped perception of what the average skiing is actually like around here. I’m not sure if it’s simply due to the extraordinary number of mixed precipitation events that have come through over the past few seasons, or the way a simple mixed/rain event can get so much more attention than a snowstorm (as evidenced recently in the Vermont Snow Updates thread). Perhaps it’s some aspect of human nature that causes people to focus on when the conditions have taken a bad turn – but it’s as if people are constantly looking over their shoulder for the next weather event that’s going to cause a downturn in ski conditions, and that may have an affect on their expectations. Those thoughts aside, we know that impressions and memory can be somewhat unreliable, so that’s why it’s good to look at the actual data. I’ll use three categories below to make the case for average or even slightly below average conditions:
Thaws, and mixed/rain events: River commented on how there’s been a prolonged stretch of cold for about a month, with the major hiccup being the event around Christmas. I know that in general, the farther south and closer to the coast one goes, the more likely it is to get warm, but that stretch of weather, containing just a single rain event is very much the norm for this area. Where are the data to say this? Thanks to Tony’s hard work, we are provided with those data for Mt. Mansfield at the bottom of
his snow quality page. The way people talk about the rain/mixed precipitation events around here, I’d bet many would be surprised to find out that a typical season contains roughly
ONE rain day per month in the December, January, and February period. Based on the precipitation numbers (just 0.85 inches/month), that likely equates to
ONE rain event per month. So in that regard we are very much following an average progression so far this season, and if it turns out that there were actually two days with rain as Tony mentioned above, that would be a bit worse than “average” for December. We did have a very quick recovery from that rain event however, so that may have added to the quality of the skiing.
Snowfall: In general my snowfall data from Waterbury correlate fairly well with what is going on in the local mountains – the correlation isn’t perfect, but it’s a pretty decent gauge, especially during the heart of the season when elevation-dependent snowfall events aren’t the norm. Granted I only have four seasons worth of data to use, but what do my Waterbury snowfall data say for the state of the season so far? They say that we are running around average at best, and more likely we are
below average. Here are my Waterbury cumulative snowfall numbers for the past four seasons through January 11th:
2006-2007: 26.6 inches
2007-2008: 97.2 inches
2008-2009: 98.7 inches
2009-2010: 65.4 inches
Those four seasons reveal an average of 72.0 inches of snowfall through this point in the season. If anything, I wonder if that number is a bit low because of the extremely low 26.6 inches from the 2006-2007 season pulling the average down. That season saw little if any snowfall, not only for November like this season, but also for December, so that has got to be a rather rare occurrence. But are the 2007-2008 and 2008-2009 numbers simply higher than average, making the average artificially high? It’s hard to say with only four seasons worth of data, but I’d argue that the snowfall numbers for those two seasons are not all that high. None of the local ski resorts in the northernmost part of the state had any astronomical numbers in those seasons, they were all in the typical 300+ range. I know there is one of these past few seasons that people consider notably better than average, but none of them have really been standouts as far as I’ve seen from personal experience or snowfall numbers from the local resorts. So basically my data say that at 65.4 inches of snowfall for the season so far, we are currently running below the average of 72.0 inches of snowfall in Waterbury. Then we have Tony’s snowfall data for the actual ski areas this season as of January 6th:
Jay Peak (mid)
Season snow: 95 inches
Percent of normal: 70%
Mansfield Stake
Season snow: 78 inches
Percent of normal: 86%
Smuggler's Notch
Season snow: 105 inches
Percent of normal: 84%
Sugarbush
Season snow: 71 inches
Percent of normal: 69%
These numbers are only through January 6th, but they are
clearly below average. Snowfall has been OK lately, but we’ve really just been making up for the nearly snowless November, so that may have provided some good powder days.
Snowpack: I checked on the current graph for the Mt. Mansfield snowpack, and was surprised to see that it is actually above average. The average snowpack depth at the stake for this date is 44 inches, and as of the latest update it is at 55 inches, so that is almost a foot above average. It should be noted that as of just a couple of weeks ago the snowpack at the stake was running right along near average, but as of now this parameter should clearly go in the above average category. I’ll add an additional note in this category based on some other comments I saw in this thread with regard to surprise about how much terrain was open. I created the image below to address the point about average snowpack on Mt. Mansfield a few weeks back, but I’ll also use it here. If one looks at the snow depths for the holiday period, they generally run in the three-foot range at the stake. Now the unofficial kick off for off piste skiing in the area is when the stake hits 40 inches, but that’s generally considered the marker for the start of relatively “safe” skiing in the trees. It’s quite obvious that woods skiing typically gets well under way with less than the 40 inches of snowpack at the stake, and from the graph below, one can see that the typical snowpack on Mt. Mansfield is just shy of that range. So again in an average season, one should expect to find
plenty of off piste skiing in Northern Vermont for the holiday period. I’m not sure exactly how this relates to the percentages for trail openings, but if there is enough coverage to ski the trees, there should be enough coverage to ski the trails. The level of skier traffic may come into play for trails however. I think that once again with the string of rain/mixed events that have happened during the last several holiday periods, people may have a skewed perspective on what to expect for holiday offering around here.
So what’s the tally in these three categories?
Thaws, and mixed/rain events: Probably average (or possibly a bit worse)
Snowfall: Below Average
Snowpack: Above Average
Certainly the data I’ve presented can’t speak for areas outside of Northern Vermont, and some of those areas do seem to be above normal, but around here I’d say conditions are roughly average based on those parameters. I don’t see any reason to go above that level based on those data – or personal experience from out on the slopes (since we know that these snow-related parameters are a big part of the story, but they may not tell the whole story). In terms of actual personal observations of ski conditions in this area, I can report on both Bolton Valley and Stowe from this weekend. At Bolton, the off piste is currently excellent (great in many areas, but not all) but on piste the conditions are rather unimpressive where trails have been groomed. Relative to my standards and compared to what it can be, the snow is rather firm in many places. At Stowe I was skiing on piste at Spruce yesterday, and the groomed runs are clearly a step below what I’ve seen at Bolton Valley. I’m not sure if it’s the wind, the effect of holiday crowds, or lack of recent snow, but Stowe’s groomed terrain (at least on Spruce) was much firmer than I expected. The off piste snow looked nice, but I didn’t get a chance to sample it.
